maqroll Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Flacco will do enough wrong to torpedo any chance the Ravens have against us. If Atlanta can contain Kaepernick, they'll win. I just don't think anyone has an answer for this kid yet. Tough pick. I'd prefer Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The Winner of AFC game will win the Superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjw63 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Pats v Falcons Superbowl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Opposite of what he said ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 (edited) Ah, so close and yet so far for a 2nd straight year for Mr. Lewis. Love it. I agree with Rob on the Super Bowl. Edited January 15, 2013 by kurtsimonw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 15, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15, 2013 If it's Patriots Falcons, there will be a lot of people around Boston who are torn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 If it's Patriots Falcons, there will be a lot of people around Boston who are torn. Um, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 15, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15, 2013 The BC alums I know worship Matty Ice (and both Hasselbecks for that matter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pats v 49'ers. 49'ers win . Only because I backed them pre play offs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted January 15, 2013 Moderator Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pats v 49ers and the Pats win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packoman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ravens v Falcons with Falcons winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 16, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 16, 2013 Every rational thought says the 49ers destroy the Falcons, but... My predictor for some reason says it's a toss-up. The amount of money being bet on the 49ers is staggering. Pinnacle opened it on Sunday night at 49ers -1 for small ($2k limit) bets. It almost instantly got bet to 49ers -3, which is when the other books cloned the line. I'll give the history from Bookmaker, as they've probably got the sharpest customer base of the books listed on Covers. 1/13/13 5:05 pm: 49ers -3 for -130 1/13/13 5:15 pm: 49ers -3.5 for -110 1/13/13 5:25 pm: 49ers -3 for -130 (the move back is almost certainly the result of bettors who got -3 or better trying for a middle... this is why that a game moved onto and then off of 3 is just amazing... before the move back to 3 I'd guess that 5 million had been bet on the 49ers and nothing on the Falcons) 1/13/13 8:51 pm: 49ers -3 for -125 (probably got a big Falcons bet from a sharpish player who had money tied up on the Patriots) 1/13/13 8:55 pm: 49ers -3 for -130 1/13/13 9:15 pm: 49ers -3.5 for -105 (another flood of 49er money) 1/13/13 11:05 pm: 49ers -3 for -135 (some more middlers hit it) 1/14/13 12:15 pm: 49ers -3.5 for -105 1/14/13 12:25 pm: 49ers -3.5 for -115 (everybody who got -3 or better who was going to middle has, now getting imbalanced action at -3.5) 1/14/13 3:05 pm: 49ers -4 for -110 (moving onto 4 is not as big a deal as moving off of 3) 1/14/13 5:25 pm: 49ers -4 for -115 (even at 4, the money flows in for the 49ers) 1/14/13 5:35 pm: 49ers -4 for -110 (some Falcons +4 for -105 came in) 1/14/13 7:35 pm: 49ers -4.5 for -110 (this is getting absurd) 1/14/13 8:35 pm: 49ers -4 for -110 1/15/13 12:35 am: 49ers -4.5 for -110 (probably just conservatism for the overnight) 1/15/13 11:35 am: 49ers -4 for -110 1/15/13 1:55 pm: 49ers -3.5 for -110 (Falcons money shows up) 1/15/13 3:05 pm: 49ers -4 for -110 At the -4 line, Bookmaker is showing 76% of the individual bets being made on the 49ers to cover. I can't remember a game where the action was this one-sided. I can't see how the books aren't making a collective large (closer to a billion dollars than nothing, if this holds up) bet that the 49ers don't cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Makes the Falcons at home in the championship game at nearly 3.00 look appealing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 18, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 18, 2013 Who are the bookies cheering for? Whenever a big event happens, the sports books often find themselves between their best- and worst-case scenarios. On the few occasions the books win huge, it’s usually because of what’s called the ‘bookmaker’s dream’. That’s when the favorite wins, but doesn’t cover. “There is kind of a misconception that we’re always rooting for the underdog to win, “ said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We’re rooting for the underdog in most cases, but not necessarily to win, especially in big, isolated games. Dogs winning outright in a two-game setting like this weekend can sometimes be just as fatal for us with money-line parlays as both favorites covering the spread.“ The favorite-to-favorite, against-the-spread parlay, which pays 13-to-5 odds, is generally the most common wager. But further down the list – just below side-to-total parlays in popularity – is the money-line underdog parlay. A $10 wager at 13-to-5 odds pays $26. A $10 wager with the Falcons money line (+180) to the Ravens money line (+330) pays $110.40. Although the handle on that combination won’t be as high as the others, it’s still a risk factor feared by books. This Sunday in the NFL’s conference championships, Vegas bet shops will be hoping for the bookmaker’s dream in the Falcons-49ers game — San Francisco winning by three points or less — but it’s not shaping up that way in the AFC, where the underdog Ravens have garnered all kinds of public action on both the spread and money line. Bettors aren’t piling on the Patriots like we have seen all season. They’ve come to respect the Ravens, not only from the last two weeks with their core defensive stars in place, but also from their recent history. The Ravens beat the Patriots, 31-30, in Week 3, and John Harbaugh has covered both times he's faced Bill Belichick in the playoffs. The books’ best scenario for the late game may end up being the Patriots steamrolling the Ravens — by a score of, say, 28-10 — with the game staying under the total of 51. The 49ers winning by no more than 3-points and the game staying UNDER 49 is the books’ best-scenario in the NFC game. After a relatively quiet Wednesday at Las Vegas sports books, we saw the LVH Super Book, South Point and William Hill books all move the Patriots from -9 to -8.5 within 10 minutes of each other on Thursday morning. Most of the other books in town soon followed, and Stations went from -8.5 to -8. The 49ers are holding steady at -4. The LVH Super Book went to -3.5 on Wednesday night, but was back at dealing -4 early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 19, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 19, 2013 3 of 4 pundits on Playbook picked the Ravens... only Sterling Sharpe picked the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tegis Posted January 19, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 19, 2013 Kickoff times are wank. I'll only be able to watch the first one live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Extremely windy in Massachusetts today, no doubt it'll be an issue tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 20, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 20, 2013 Late money coming on the Falcons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tegis Posted January 20, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 20, 2013 Mmmm Erin Andrews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 20, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted January 20, 2013 Falcons moving the ball well to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts