ml1dch Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago (edited) 1 hour ago, pas5898 said: Can someone educated in this matter - tell me who is favourite for the presidency? Online both sides are OTT in their projecting wins for their candidate. Democrats are wheeling out the big guns - Obama etc Republicans claiming its a landslide. Trump is favourite, because you'll win less money betting on him in the event he wins than you would with Harris. But that doesn't mean a huge amount, for all the reasons you've said. Bookmakers don't have any real additional insight beyond who is receiving the greater amount of money in bets. And most of those bets will be being placed by people who don't have any insight either. So "favourite" is a consequence of people moving money around, not necessarily likelihood of winning. Because nearly everything in the USA happens through a partisan lens, there is very little untainted information to go on - at this point, any of a comfortable Trump victory, a comfortable Harris victory or the tightest imaginable margin one way or the other are completely plausible scenarios. A quick example - in Pennsylvania the Democrats have a lead of around 350,000 in early voting (i.e returned ballots from voters registered as either D or R, so the assumption is they've voted with their registered affiliation). That equates to a lead of around 30%. However in 2020 at the same stage of the cycle, the Democrat lead was over 50%. So Trump supporters will say that this is great because they came pretty close last time and the data shows that there is much less of a deficit to make up on election day. And Harris supporters will counter with "yes, but in 2020 we were paying much more attention to Covid restrictions so did loads more voting early or by mail while YOU GUYS have spent the last four years banging on to your supporters about how you needed to vote early and by mail, so you don't have as many people to come out on election day itself anymore". And they're both possibly correct. Edited 2 hours ago by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted 1 hour ago VT Supporter Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 hours ago, nick76 said: Something is about to drop that’s really bad for Trump I think. All the top right wing influencers are making similar comments about they expect some deep state shit to come out and it will be fake. As if they have been warned something is coming out and they should get ahead of it. Hmmm….. i mean, what could be "really bad for trump" that would change the minds of any of his voters? where is their line do you think? in spite of everything he's said and done they still adore him so how bad could it really get? they'll probably just put it down to fake news whatever it is anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago 20 minutes ago, tomav84 said: i mean, what could be "really bad for trump" that would change the minds of any of his voters? where is their line do you think? in spite of everything he's said and done they still adore him so how bad could it really get? they'll probably just put it down to fake news whatever it is anyway Yeah I agree, I was thinking the same thing as I posted the Guardian item above. I’m not sure there is anything he could do that would change the mind of his voters because he’s done most of the really bad ‘no no’s’ and it’s not hurt him in their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago I am quite looking forward to November 5th. A Trump win is obviously very undesriable but whatever the result it's going to be entertaining as ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago Just now, Wainy316 said: I am quite looking forward to November 5th. A Trump win is obviously very undesriable but whatever the result it's going to be entertaining as ****! November the 5th and for at least a week given the Mail in ballots for many states are counted after that day. Get the popcorn ready! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AXD Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, nick76 said: Yeah I agree, I was thinking the same thing as I posted the Guardian item above. I’m not sure there is anything he could do that would change the mind of his voters because he’s done most of the really bad ‘no no’s’ and it’s not hurt him in their minds. He could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue? 8 years ago that was him showboating, today it might actually be true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pottervillan Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 2 hours ago, nick76 said: Yeah I know, even something like this would normally end a nominee’s chances but this won’t even get a ripple in the news and be barely mentioned in MSM as it’s just another day in Trump world… So is this why there was an attack on the far left labour party as well Lets get a theme out there that the far left wokerati are after poor Donald Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted 3 minutes ago Share Posted 3 minutes ago October is notorious for being a bad time for polling in the US, just putting it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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