Davkaus Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 14 minutes ago, maqroll said: Not a chance that Trump is in any way referencing historical precedence. Wrong. Trump knows all the historical precedence. He knows them better than anyone. Nixon. Anyone remember Richard Nixon? Wonderful man. Beautiful scandals, the best. Not like those democrat historical precedents, no way. They're eating our kids. Kamala will too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago If he loses it’s going to kill him, he’s going to explode that he’s lost to a person who’s black, Indian and a women. Three things he’s always thought are beneath him and he had contempt for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted 15 hours ago VT Supporter Share Posted 15 hours ago Can someone post me some tweets from election experts who still expect Harris to win because the papers are not great reading right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago More humiliation for America courtesy of Trump- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 24 minutes ago, sidcow said: Can someone post me some tweets from election experts who still expect Harris to win because the papers are not great reading right now. This professor has an alternative method of predicting elections to polling, he has 13 'keys' that he judges the incumbent President on to decide whether they will win or lose, I think he had Biden to lose but Harris to win now. The only election he got wrong was George W Bush's first win (which he technically shouldn't have won imo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 32 minutes ago, nick76 said: If he loses it’s going to kill him, he’s going to explode that he’s lost to a person who’s black, Indian and a women. Three things he’s always thought are beneath him and he had contempt for. Hopefully the day after the votes are counted he gets arrested and thrown in jail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted 14 hours ago VT Supporter Share Posted 14 hours ago 10 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: This professor has an alternative method of predicting elections to polling, he has 13 'keys' that he judges the incumbent President on to decide whether they will win or lose, I think he had Biden to lose but Harris to win now. The only election he got wrong was George W Bush's first win (which he technically shouldn't have won imo). Thanks but ryat was 2 weeks ago and a lot of momentum seems to have moved to Trump since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrootVilla Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 minute ago, sidcow said: Thanks but ryat was 2 weeks ago and a lot of momentum seems to have moved to Trump since then. I added a video above. Been watching the polls go back towards Trump for around a week and I think within 7-10 days he will have a substantial lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago (edited) 9 minutes ago, sidcow said: Thanks but ryat was 2 weeks ago and a lot of momentum seems to have moved to Trump since then. Yes but that's largely the point of what he is saying about 'October surprises' being irrelevant in the past and polls being unreliable, rather looking at the fundamental issues at the heart of what gets Presidents elected as the real metric. Just an alternative to seeing the polls fluctuate on a day-to-day basis and panicking. Edited 14 hours ago by sharkyvilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Saw an interesting stat t'other day - about white women, the largest single demographic of the voting public. That he's lost their support, compared to every other past republican candidate including himself in the election he won. Abortion being the key issue that will stop him winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 hour ago, GrootVilla said: I added a video above. Been watching the polls go back towards Trump for around a week and I think within 7-10 days he will have a substantial lead. I think you are missing that almost all of the polls recently have been right leaning or non-partisan which has skewed the trend. This causes many of the averaging polls to look like they are moving in favour of Trump, when things haven’t changed that much. It was something like 45% right leaning, 45% non-partisan and 10% left leaning. If when there is a more balanced mix I will be more concerned but some of the left leaving I’ve seen they haven’t changed much. The problem is that it’s all in the margin of error so who knows and polls haven’t been that accurate in recent years anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted 12 hours ago Moderator Share Posted 12 hours ago 18 minutes ago, nick76 said: I think you are missing that almost all of the polls recently have been right leaning or non-partisan which has skewed the trend. This causes many of the averaging polls to look like they are moving in favour of Trump, when things haven’t changed that much. It was something like 45% right leaning, 45% non-partisan and 10% left leaning. If when there is a more balanced mix I will be more concerned but some of the left leaving I’ve seen they haven’t changed much. The problem is that it’s all in the margin of error so who knows and polls haven’t been that accurate in recent years anyway. And some of those right leaning polls are doing more than leaning The polling story really doesnt stand up when you look at the polls included 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted 11 hours ago VT Supporter Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 hour ago, bickster said: And some of those right leaning polls are doing more than leaning It could even be counterproductive for Trump, by shaking Democrat voters out of complacency as to whether they need to bother to vote. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago (edited) I'd be very wary of paying much attention to US polling. If the polling misses like it did in 2016 then Trump will win easily. However if it misses like it did in 2022 then Harris is on for an absolute landslide. Both are completely plausible outcomes at this point, as is the tightest race in history decided by Kevin Costner's vote. But they're only all plausible outcomes because the polling is so shoddy and partisan. It's really not worth getting hung up about one way or the other. Edited 10 hours ago by ml1dch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Polls are so close that there is no predicting this on polls alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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