sidcow Posted July 31 VT Supporter Share Posted July 31 (edited) I guess the only polling that really matters is in the swing states. Trump could be level/ahead for the population as a whole, but if he's a couple of points behind in those crucial states he's going to lose. I also think there is probably something in the theory that Trumpists/Right wingers will shout their allegiance from the rooftops but Democrats are probably more unwilling to disclose which way they're voting. It probably does slightly affect the polling, I could see that. Edited July 31 by sidcow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 17 minutes ago, sidcow said: I guess the only polling that really matters is in the swing states. Trump could be level/ahead for the population as a whole, but if he's a couple of points behind in those crucial states he's going to lose. I also think there is probably something in the theory that Trumpists/Right wingers will shout their allegiance from the rooftops but Democrats are probably more unwilling to disclose which way they're voting. It probably does slightly affect the polling, I could see that. I think it is perhaps also increasingly more difficult to poll younger voters as they have no fixed land line in their home and less engagement with the traditional media sources who conduct polling? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 31 VT Supporter Share Posted July 31 7 minutes ago, LondonLax said: I think it is perhaps also increasingly more difficult to poll younger voters as they have no fixed land line in their home and less engagement with the traditional media sources who conduct polling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, DCJonah said: Yeah it's crazy over there for that sort of stuff. The momentum seems to be going well right now. I just don't get how 6 years ago enough people voted in midterms to hit the republicans. 4 years ago, enough people voted to say we've had enough of Trump. 2 years ago, when republicans were confident of a red wave, enough people voted to completely squash that. And yet now all of a sudden there's not enough people to vote against Trump coming back. What the **** has changed their mind? That's because she already had then whipped into a frenzy at that point. Also, the rally took place in a stadium. American politics have always been a bit more showbiz than British politics alright. Isn't that why Kinnock's 1992 rally backfired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, sidcow said: I guess the only polling that really matters is in the swing states. Trump could be level/ahead for the population as a whole, but if he's a couple of points behind in those crucial states he's going to lose. I also think there is probably something in the theory that Trumpists/Right wingers will shout their allegiance from the rooftops but Democrats are probably more unwilling to disclose which way they're voting. It probably does slightly affect the polling, I could see that. It is a difficult question that pollsters have tried to answer and while they have might changes in their calculations to compensate for underrepresented answer groups, the margin of error is going to be large for those groups. But I think what was clearly going to be an almost landslide election for Trump and has now turned into, at minimal, a toss up and even a slight Harris lead. She’s clearly raising the floor on the Sunbelt states and making it a draw, if not slightly leading except for Pennsylvania, in the Rustbelt states. Biden’s map was very narrow and running away from him whereas Harris has energized the Democratic Party to levels not seen since 2008. Voters were desperate for another option and they’re relieved and ready to embrace the unknown now that they have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 (edited) Harris winning the troll game. He can't get rid of this label... Edited July 31 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 20 minutes ago, magnkarl said: Harris winning the troll game. He can't get rid of this label... Should be speech 101 to never say the words couch, sofa, lounge, chaise, lazy boy, etc ever again. But love is love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 4 hours ago, DCJonah said: Yeah it's crazy over there for that sort of stuff. The momentum seems to be going well right now. I just don't get how 6 years ago enough people voted in midterms to hit the republicans. 4 years ago, enough people voted to say we've had enough of Trump. 2 years ago, when republicans were confident of a red wave, enough people voted to completely squash that. And yet now all of a sudden there's not enough people to vote against Trump coming back. What the **** has changed their mind? Wall to wall coverage of Trump numerous legal challenges to fire up the lunatic support base and a doddery old president? Who was actually doing a reasonable job on paper though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 31 VT Supporter Share Posted July 31 3 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: and a doddery old president? Who was actually doing a reasonable job on paper though. Sleepy Joe killed him. Amazing how a derogatory nickname can stick and never be shaken off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor-Cal Villan Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 (edited) 5 hours ago, Davkaus said: It's closer to a WWE promo than it is anything we see in British politics, I find it utterly bizarre. Edited July 31 by Nor-Cal Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Can’t believe how wrong I was about changing candidates, the swing and enthusiasm towards Harris has been impressive. I thought it would take a significant back step and then too long to catch up and how wrong I was. Even polls that had consistently said around 20% didn’t like either candidate has dropped to 8% so you’d have to assume most of that is going to Harris. Even Kennedy polls has dropped from 15% to 5%. Vance looks like a misstep for Trump but that could level back off because we all knew Vance was weird anyway. Interesting to see who Harris picks for VP and how that affects polling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted July 31 VT Supporter Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, nick76 said: Can’t believe how wrong I was about changing candidates, the swing and enthusiasm towards Harris has been impressive. I thought it would take a significant back step and then too long to catch up and how wrong I was. Even polls that had consistently said around 20% didn’t like either candidate has dropped to 8% so you’d have to assume most of that is going to Harris. Even Kennedy polls has dropped from 15% to 5%. Vance looks like a misstep for Trump but that could level back off because we all knew Vance was weird anyway. Interesting to see who Harris picks for VP and how that affects polling. IMO It's a toss up between Mark Kelly & Shapiro. Kelly is tough on the border which the GOP have been hammering Kamala on. Shapiro could deliver Pennsylvania which is a key swing state and could help push other rust belt states her way. Problem with Shapiro is that he is very vocal in his support of Israel's war in Gaza (he's Jewish) which is a massive problem for a lot of voters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, TheAuthority said: IMO It's a toss up between Mark Kelly & Shapiro. Kelly is tough on the border which the GOP have been hammering Kamala on. Shapiro could deliver Pennsylvania which is a key swing state and could help push other rust belt states her way. Problem with Shapiro is that he is very vocal in his support of Israel's war in Gaza (he's Jewish) which is a massive problem for a lot of voters. Kelly might also help on Arizona as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted July 31 VT Supporter Share Posted July 31 9 minutes ago, nick76 said: Kelly might also help on Arizona as well. For sure. It's tight there just like Pennsylvania - I believe both states were something like 20,000 votes more for Biden than Trump in 2020. The Dems feel that Georgia is back in play now though which is a really good thing. If the Harris campaign can galvanize black voters there I feel I lot more optimistic about her chances. I'm just like you though Nick. I did not see this swing coming and thought that Biden dropping out would be a disaster. I've never been happier to be wrong about something! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 5 hours ago, sidcow said: Sleepy Joe killed him. Amazing how a derogatory nickname can stick and never be shaken off. I mean he certainly grew into it. I found myself starting to use it semi-ironically after his debate performance. It cuts both ways though. We all know Vance never actually knobbed a couch, but he’s still never going to live it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 31 VT Supporter Share Posted July 31 20 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: We all know Vance never actually knobbed a couch, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 (edited) 10 minutes ago, sidcow said: Sorry, you’re right - I should have said “there’s no evidence he knobbed a couch”, and equally there’s also no evidence he didn’t. Plus, maybe he’ll start to think he may as well commit the crime given he’s already serving the time. Edited July 31 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 27 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: I mean he certainly grew into it. I found myself starting to use it semi-ironically after his debate performance. It cuts both ways though. We all know Vance never actually knobbed a couch, but he’s still never going to live it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 31 VT Supporter Share Posted July 31 (edited) I don't see what the issue is. I mean who hasn't been caught with their knob in a sofa from time to time? Edited July 31 by sidcow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts