nick76 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Is tonight the debate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 56 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Is tonight the debate? Yep 2am UK time on CNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 The thriller in senilla. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bannedfromHandV Posted June 27 Popular Post Share Posted June 27 It’s going to be a cringe-fest. What odds on Biden completely zoning out at some point? Trump will ‘win’ the debate because all he knows is to make noise, no matter how incoherent it is. It’s mind blowing that it’s a straight choice between these two people, absolutely insane by any reasonable measure. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 9 hours ago, nick76 said: Nate Silver hasn’t been right since 2016 and consistently wrong on Biden, even his former site shows the opposite. He's one of the better data journalists - him being wrong in 2016 always gets trotted out but his job isn't to be right, it's to show the likelihood of outcomes - and models can only be adjusted based on past learnings. If every state was 66% Biden, 33% Trump, that's like saying you roll a dice 50 times and Trump wins the state if it's a 1 or a 2. You'd expect Trump to win some states, even though his chances are lower (and Trumps odds of winning > 25 of states is still less than 1%). The fact that presidential elections happen so infrequently means that when the unexpected outcome happens it's more shocking, but they can (and should) happen. At the end of the day it's just a mix of science and assumptions to give people a number to help them deal with crippling uncertainty. How many Villa fans look at the odds of us winning a math without ever placing a bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 52 minutes ago, Vancvillan said: He's one of the better data journalists That’s debatable, he was a great forecaster starting under the name of poblano pre 2008 election and again 2012 but then Trump changed the political landscape and his forecasting has been way off consistently because his models no longer work. He’s very much known as a blowhard as well but his type of forecasting worked on traditional presidential and other elections but big data the way he does it hasn’t worked for the last 8 years and largely mocked within the industry now. When Trump leaves the political stage will Nate’s models work or did he just have that period of 4 years his pinnacle where he was almost 100% spot on because he’s been off since and his views political and non-political have been questioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 (edited) 4 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said: It’s mind blowing that it’s a straight choice between these two people, absolutely insane by any reasonable measure. At least one of them is a democrat and not a roaring fascist who tried to overthrow an election result in January 2021. Edited June 27 by Captain_Townsend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, nick76 said: That’s debatable, he was a great forecaster starting under the name of poblano pre 2008 election and again 2012 but then Trump changed the political landscape and his forecasting has been way off consistently because his models no longer work. He’s very much known as a blowhard as well but his type of forecasting worked on traditional presidential and other elections but big data the way he does it hasn’t worked for the last 8 years and largely mocked within the industry now. When Trump leaves the political stage will Nate’s models work or did he just have that period of 4 years his pinnacle where he was almost 100% spot on because he’s been off since and his views political and non-political have been questioned. I mean my reply would be everything you took out of my post with your quote reply. I think he's not a god, he's not an idiot either, but I've got no dog in this race. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted June 28 VT Supporter Share Posted June 28 I cannot believe I’ve been sucked into watching this. come on Biden- try and save us from a car crash of armageddon proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villaphan04 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Biden looks absolutely lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Biden doesn’t look well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted June 28 VT Supporter Share Posted June 28 17 minutes ago, Villaphan04 said: Biden looks absolutely lost Oh boy. Trump is rambling and lying as usual but he looks the most coherent sadly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 2 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: Oh boy. Trump is rambling and lying as usual but he looks the most coherent sadly. This is an awful debate and you’re exactly right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted June 28 VT Supporter Share Posted June 28 Biden scored some points with “you have the morals of an alley cat.” He listed all of of Trumps crimes. That was good. All of this is so depressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 9 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: Biden scored some points with “you have the morals of an alley cat.” He listed all of of Trumps crimes. That was good. All of this is so depressing. Yep, I’m turning it off now, can’t stand watching any more it’s just depressing watching these two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted June 28 VT Supporter Share Posted June 28 Somehow Trump just ignores the question and shouts about whatever Biden says. it’s just awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosch Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 JFC. We’re doomed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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