nick76 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Not a good look for Fani but I don’t think McAfee would’ve issued this if he was going to dismiss Fani. So while this isn’t good filing the bigger picture is the rest of the indictment will go ahead under Fani’s reign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 While the polling putting Trump ahead is all within the margin for error, Trump is still polling higher than he was in the last election (which turned out to be incredibly tight in the swing states). If you’re not worried by the polling, you should be. It’s certainly not a guaranteed Trump win but right now it’s looking worse than it has previously. But the election is eight months away, and there’s time for opinions to change: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 13 VT Supporter Share Posted March 13 12 minutes ago, nick76 said: Not a good look for Fani but I don’t think McAfee would’ve issued this if he was going to dismiss Fani. So while this isn’t good filing the bigger picture is the rest of the indictment will go ahead under Fani’s reign. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 13 minutes ago, nick76 said: Not a good look for Fani but I don’t think McAfee would’ve issued this if he was going to dismiss Fani. So while this isn’t good filing the bigger picture is the rest of the indictment will go ahead under Fani’s reign. Must. Not. Post. Kenneth. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 So Trump is down to 88 criminal counts from 91 criminal counts…not such a bad guy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 4 minutes ago, nick76 said: So Trump is down to 88 criminal counts from 91 criminal counts…not such a bad guy now Honest Don 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 19 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: While the polling putting Trump ahead is all within the margin for error, Trump is still polling higher than he was in the last election (which turned out to be incredibly tight in the swing states). If you’re not worried by the polling, you should be. It’s certainly not a guaranteed Trump win but right now it’s looking worse than it has previously. But the election is eight months away, and there’s time for opinions to change: Polling isn’t matching voting though, the constant theme seems to be how many Republicans keep saying they wouldn’t vote for Trump in the stat analysis and even in the primary Republicans voting in protest for Haley even though she had dropped out of the race even in Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said: While the polling putting Trump ahead is all within the margin for error, Trump is still polling higher than he was in the last election (which turned out to be incredibly tight in the swing states). If you’re not worried by the polling, you should be. It’s certainly not a guaranteed Trump win but right now it’s looking worse than it has previously. But the election is eight months away, and there’s time for opinions to change: 47 minutes ago, nick76 said: Polling isn’t matching voting though, the constant theme seems to be how many Republicans keep saying they wouldn’t vote for Trump in the stat analysis and even in the primary Republicans voting in protest for Haley even though she had dropped out of the race even in Georgia. I wouldn't extrapolate too much from the special election voting as well as the Haley vote. The type of voters that will pull the lever on special elections and Haley are the type of highly politically engaged voters that are not representative of the US public in a general election. I think as we've discussed before - the real conundrum are these mythical Trump to Biden to Trump swing voters. What seems improbable keeps coming across in all of the polling. While the accuracy to the degree of magnitude in terms of point differential is the science that's unsure, I do think it's a real thing. You can not both be losing in the polls to Trump and also have an almost -20 approval rating, and all of that be wrong. The polls losing to Trump and approval are linked. And while the polls have been off, and really off when you get to specific house, senate, and governor seats - the general elections polls have been within +/- 3 points so if Biden can't get himself within the margin of error in some states, it points to him losing. @Panto_Villan is right that people should be worried about the polling. 8 months is a lot of time though and Biden has the advantage of the Trump past and also knowing where to focus his money (the blue firewall). I still have hope that he'll get across the line in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania just by turning out the vote and swaying enough swing voters to avoid another Trump chaos presidency. Also that people will get cold feet and vote for the incumbent they know. But people should be worried. Individual polls can be wrong but a continuous stream of polls from high quality pollsters paint a picture we don't want to see. Edited March 13 by DJBOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 17 minutes ago, DJBOB said: I wouldn't extrapolate too much from the special election voting as well as the Haley vote. The type of voters that will pull the lever on special elections and Haley are the type of highly politically engaged voters that are not representative of the US public in a general election. I think as we've discussed before - the real conundrum are these mythical Trump to Biden to Trump swing voters. What seems improbable keeps coming across in all of the polling. While the accuracy to the degree of magnitude in terms of point differential is the science that's unsure, I do think it's a real thing. You can not both be losing in the polls to Trump and also have an almost -20 approval rating, and all of that be wrong. The polls losing to Trump and approval are linked. And while the polls have been off, and really off when you get to specific house, senate, and governor seats - the general elections polls have been within +/- 3 points so if Biden can't get himself within the margin of error in some states, it points to him losing. @Panto_Villan is right that people should be worried about the polling. 8 months is a lot of time though and Biden has the advantage of the Trump past and also knowing where to focus his money (the blue firewall). I still have hope that he'll get across the line in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania just by turning out the vote and swaying enough swing voters to avoid another Trump chaos presidency. Also that people will get cold feet and vote for the incumbent they know. But people should be worried. Individual polls can be wrong but a continuous stream of polls from high quality pollsters paint a picture we don't want to see. Should be worried? Of course but again 2018, 2020 and 2022 showed how completely off they’ve been. The high quality pollsters seem to have a problem as the traditional polling methods haven’t been working in recent years, voters aren’t answering polls and thus it’s becoming less and less representative of the actual result. Polls of course have a use but to give an indication within even the margin of error should be taken with a pinch of salt and you can see it after every election including the general election which has had less data because it’s only every four years but why will that be different to all the other polls of lower down the card ballots. It’s all going to be close whatever and as you say 8 months left so a lot can happen and needs to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 29 minutes ago, nick76 said: Should be worried? Of course but again 2018, 2020 and 2022 showed how completely off they’ve been. The high quality pollsters seem to have a problem as the traditional polling methods haven’t been working in recent years, voters aren’t answering polls and thus it’s becoming less and less representative of the actual result. Polls of course have a use but to give an indication within even the margin of error should be taken with a pinch of salt and you can see it after every election including the general election which has had less data because it’s only every four years but why will that be different to all the other polls of lower down the card ballots. It’s all going to be close whatever and as you say 8 months left so a lot can happen and needs to happen. Yes, but in 2016 and 2020 they significantly underestimated Trump’s support. You can’t assume the error will be in Biden’s favour like it was in 2022. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 55 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: Yes, but in 2016 and 2020 they significantly underestimated Trump’s support. You can’t assume the error will be in Biden’s favour like it was in 2022. My point is not that they underestimated Trump, my point is they are too inaccurate to be relied on. We know it’s going to be close and the difference between winning is smaller than the margin of error or even how far the polling has been off in recent years. They underestimated Trump, they overestimated the red wave, they underestimated Biden, they missed some flips of seats…they are just as right as wrong in recent years so their methods aren’t working anymore and thus the reliability is in question. I just go on results, Trump has only won once and that was because he was politically unknown, the anti-Hillary vibe, Democrats weren’t as serious because they thought they were going to win. Since the Republicans have won very little compared to how they should’ve done, in 2018, 2020 and 2022…and in 2024 the Democrats are far more in unison across the board compared to the Republicans who have a split between MAGA and non-MAGA. Plus Democrats have issues to run on like Abortion which has really energised the voters in the last few years plus the force that don’t want Trump in again, to me means 2020 repeats again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, nick76 said: My point is not that they underestimated Trump, my point is they are too inaccurate to be relied on. We know it’s going to be close and the difference between winning is smaller than the margin of error or even how far the polling has been off in recent years. They underestimated Trump, they overestimated the red wave, they underestimated Biden, they missed some flips of seats…they are just as right as wrong in recent years so their methods aren’t working anymore and thus the reliability is in question. I just go on results, Trump has only won once and that was because he was politically unknown, the anti-Hillary vibe, Democrats weren’t as serious because they thought they were going to win. Since the Republicans have won very little compared to how they should’ve done, in 2018, 2020 and 2022…and in 2024 the Democrats are far more in unison across the board compared to the Republicans who have a split between MAGA and non-MAGA. Plus Democrats have issues to run on like Abortion which has really energised the voters in the last few years plus the force that don’t want Trump in again, to me means 2020 repeats again. So funnily enough, apparently in 2022 the polls were as accurate as they've been in the past 30 years: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/ ("The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022") I guess even then the "red wave" didn't really materialise, so I suppose they weren't *that* accurate. And that is the result that gives me hope, because it was the one where the Republicans did worse than expected rather than outperforming expectations. Anyway, I understand what you're saying logically. This should be a relatively easy election for the Democrats, logically, because Trump is an atrocious candidate and abortion has turned into a particularly large issue recently. But you and I and everyone else on VT aren't exactly a great barometer of the political mood in the US; VT is very left-leaning even for the UK and the fact that on here there's page after page of people who are genuinely amazed Trump is even allowed to run while in the real world he absolutely destroyed Haley and DeSantis in the primaries (Haley being a reasonably strong candidate imo) should probably illustrate that. I just don't think any of us understand what might motivate people to vote for Trump, so we can't really apply our own logic to the situation and expect to get an accurate result. I mean, Biden would have romped the last election if the US electorate wasn't insane, but he didn't. EDIT - actually, it's also worth noting that 2022 was the only time Trump effectively wasn't on the ballot. So perhaps its bad news that was the only time the Republicans underperformed the polls. Edited March 13 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 The reason many of us say he shouldn't be on the Ballot is because The USA used to take democracy seriously and out itself forward as the leader of the democratic world. That Trump is a candidate after everything he has done and after more ir less confirming he would allow a putin do as he pleases causes us alarm and shows the decline of the USA as leader of the free world. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 57 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said: The reason many of us say he shouldn't be on the Ballot is because The USA used to take democracy seriously and out itself forward as the leader of the democratic world. That Trump is a candidate after everything he has done and after more ir less confirming he would allow a putin do as he pleases causes us alarm and shows the decline of the USA as leader of the free world. Surely removing people you don’t agree with from the ballot is the opposite of democracy? The American people will decide if they want Trump as their leader or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rds1983 Posted March 15 VT Supporter Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Captain_Townsend said: The reason many of us say he shouldn't be on the Ballot is because The USA used to take democracy seriously and out itself forward as the leader of the democratic world. That Trump is a candidate after everything he has done and after more ir less confirming he would allow a putin do as he pleases causes us alarm and shows the decline of the USA as leader of the free world. The US is not a democracy, it's a Republic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 15 Moderator Share Posted March 15 29 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Surely removing people you don’t agree with from the ballot is the opposite of democracy? The American people will decide if they want Trump as their leader or not. It’s two things isn’t it. The second sentence, sure. The first one not necessarily why attempts are being made to remove him. He’s been charged with multiple felony counts. Not yet convicted (or found innocent) but there’s a strong argument that if convicted he should not be eligible to stand. Unfortunately the legal system is so slow with appeals and stuff, that his lawyers have managed to delay any likelihood of conviction until after the election date. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15 Moderator Share Posted March 15 32 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Surely removing people you don’t agree with from the ballot is the opposite of democracy? Not if that person was responsible for an insurrection aimed at overturning the will of the people. There are many reasons all over the world that people aren't allowed to be an elected representative. For example bankrupts cant be an elected MP in the UK, neither can judges or police officers or active service personnel 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 43 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Surely removing people you don’t agree with from the ballot is the opposite of democracy? The American people will decide if they want Trump as their leader or not. Yeah, because trying to prevent the certification of the 2020 election result and inciting a fascist mob to storm the houses of Congress is absolutely 100% compatible with the high office of the Republic he wishes to lead. Aside from everything else he does to demean politics, spread disinformation and add support to the most evil dictator today, Vladimir Putin Edited March 15 by Captain_Townsend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 41 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Surely removing people you don’t agree with from the ballot is the opposite of democracy? It’s not removing, it’s about not being eligible just like being under 35 or being a foreign national would make you ineligible to be on the ballot. Being determined by parties that he was an insurrectionist they used this to make him ineligible but Supreme Court decided it wasn’t the States right to do this. That’s not removing him, it’s just saying he was ineligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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