HanoiVillan Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Useful parapgraph from 538 putting Trump's 'win' with Hispanics into context: 'Did Trump win Hispanics in Nevada? You can be sure that Trump will tell us he did! There was a lot of nerd-fighting over who won theHispanic vote in the Democratic caucuses in Nevada, and we suspect there will be some over the Republican caucuses as well. Indeed, the entrance poll had Trump beating Rubio 45 percent to 28 percent among Hispanics. But keep in mind that the sample size on that result is somewhere between 100 and 200 people. That means the margin of sampling error for the Hispanic subgroup is near +/- 10 percentage points (or even higher). Perhaps more importantly, just 8 percent of Republican voters were Hispanic (or 1 percent of the Nevadan Hispanic population), and they are not politically representative of the larger Hispanic community.' http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nevada-caucus-results-donald-trump-2016-republican-primary/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 7 hours ago, coda said: He got 46% of the Hispanic vote. If you are of Hispanic origin and reside legally in the USA. Would you (a) want loads of "your" people coming across illegally and then getting rewarded with residency through an amnesty of some form, and of course this says nothing about the increased competition for resources (jobs etc.) (b) Feel threatened and prefer the status quo whereby you have elevated status via legal residency. Trump is saying nothing all that different to the standard repub lines over the past 8 yrs I've lived here, but the difference is that he is from outside of the previous bunch of liars etc. The establishment repubs are in full on panic mode and it's an incredibly interesting thing to observe! Trump will most likely beat Hillary too, happy Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 (edited) Trump is, currently, extremely unpopular with general election voters. Right now, you'd have to predict he would lose to Hillary very very comfortably. However, nobody expected him to get this far, so the possibility can't be ruled out. EDIT: This isn't strong enough. I wouldn't even be surprised if the situation changed. I don't think there's much evidence to say 'Trump will most likely beat Hillary' yet though. Edited February 24, 2016 by HanoiVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 In terms of being not liked Hillary is actually right up with Trump in terms of the percentage of people who find him/her objectionable per the latest polling. It's the big dirty secret that is being deliberately ignored. In contrast, Sanders is a big cuddly Teddy bear who would easily beat Trump in the general election. Polling suggests Hillary would struggle and this is before Trump has really gone after her! Of course, he'll simply call Sanders a communist and that will be that over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Quote President Donald Trump. A thousand ridiculous accidents needed to happen in the unlikeliest of sequences for it to be possible, but absent a dramatic turn of events – an early primary catastrophe, Mike Bloomberg ego-crashing the race, etc. – this boorish, monosyllabic TV tyrant with the attention span of an Xbox-playing 11-year-old really is set to lay waste to the most impenetrable oligarchy the Western world ever devised. Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224#ixzz419Vn6OyD Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook Really funny piece, Matt Taibbi is relentless- http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224?page=2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 good article that, I'm now more convinced he is actually going to be the nominee now. It is just so fascinating, there's a definite car-wreck curiosity about it all playing out, from a safe spot thousands of miles across an ocean obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaglint Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 They are no safe spots with a lunatics fingers over the button. That said I think we will see a very very different Trump after he wins the GOP nomination. I think he'll row back from a lot of the more crazy stuff and aim to appear a lot more moderate. He will say anything to get in power. Hilary is very unpopular with a lot of folks and Trump is a lot smarter than people think so I am not underestimating him by any stretch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 How come Hilary is so unpopular? I thought Bill was popular, apart from the Monica Lewinski stuff that happened a couple of years ago (I know it's been like 20 years ) What is this "Big secret" too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 nerd alert: I went to a free lecture in Swansea University last weekend, on american politics and how we got where we are. Just utterly fascinating. Well worth reminding yourself every now and again the sheer scale of the place and the diversity of wealth, outlook, geography and ethnicity. Anyway, the lecturer was most interested in the apparent disconnect between the internal warmth of welcome to visitors, the easy community feel of many places, but contrasted with some dystopian inner cities and a fear of the world 'out there'. The disinclination to join the first world war, the disincilnation to get too involved in Syria and then the contradictory role of self styled world policeman. But I have to confess, it was a bit like one of TonyH's comedy nights. Utterly enthralling for 2 hours whilst I was there, lots of moments where I thought 'bloody hell I didn't realise that!', followed by very little memory of actual facts and figures just days later! Other than I was more aware of my own prejudices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 8 hours ago, lapal_fan said: How come Hilary is so unpopular? I thought Bill was popular, apart from the Monica Lewinski stuff that happened a couple of years ago (I know it's been like 20 years ) What is this "Big secret" too? She comes across as a phony and lacks the "common touch" that made Bill a natural No idea about a secret, but I'm sure she has a few 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_c Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't get the nature of the primaries in America. Surely loads of voters affiliated to the democrats vote for Trump because they think he's got no chance of winning presidential election. Like in this country when it was claimed a lot if Tories registered the Labour vote to elect Corbyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Some people do that, but not a large proportion of the total vote. In a lot of states you can only vote in the primary of the party you're registered as a supporter of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Anyone care to play devil's advocate and say why a Trump win would be a good thing? I understand he is generally pro universal healthcare, would it ever be likely to happen if he became President? I'm secretly hoping he is a closet Democrat acting as an agent to infiltrate the Republicans to destroy them, it's the only plausible explanation I can think of for his existence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
V01 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 He'd create a lot of jobs to build that wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 There are more than a few who believe Trump is secretly working for the Clintons. I don't, personally. I think he is the end result of the past 30 years of American politics and culture. It would be fitting if the country was ruined by a brand. Though I don't think he will win. He has a solid group of around 30-40% of republican voters who will always vote for him. It is good enough to win the nomination but come the general that leaves at least two-thirds of republican voters with unknown intentions: will they rally around Trump, will they vote Clinton, or not turn up altogether (or vote for a third party!!!)? If, say, only 40% of republicans turn out in a red state, does that open it up for a Clinton win? If so the night could be a big win for Clinton, especially if people actively go out to vote against Trump too. But a good deal of those voters could move to Trump, and when it comes to the general, he is capable of bringing out big numbers of new voters. Added to that, he has a broad appeal, and Clinton is divisive herself. I don't think a Trump win is out of the realms of possibility, but Clinton remains the favourite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted March 2, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted March 2, 2016 48 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: Anyone care to play devil's advocate and say why a Trump win would be a good thing? I understand he is generally pro universal healthcare, would it ever be likely to happen if he became President? I'm secretly hoping he is a closet Democrat acting as an agent to infiltrate the Republicans to destroy them, it's the only plausible explanation I can think of for his existence. He was a Democrat, until he wasn't. Donald Trump will do what's good for Donald Trump, which basically means everything that comes out of his mouth is completely intellectually bankrupt because all he's doing is saying what the immediate audience want to hear. He'd be an absolutely atrocious President. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 29 minutes ago, Chindie said: He was a Democrat, until he wasn't. Donald Trump will do what's good for Donald Trump, which basically means everything that comes out of his mouth is completely intellectually bankrupt because all he's doing is saying what the immediate audience want to hear. He'd be an absolutely atrocious President. I also thought he used to be a democrat.... I wonder though if that would mean he could get cross senate support where other presidents have struggled because their party doesn't control the house ? he may well turn out to be an atrocious president (if elected )but then I don't think America has had a good one for some time now so maybe America needs a president Trump ... Something so bad as to stop them repeating the same mistake over and over With future presidents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Saw that brummie comedian tonight show thing, some of it was good some of it was for effect, id never heard the Isis thing before though, something like "the way to defeat terrorists is to attack their families" **** me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted March 2, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted March 2, 2016 14 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: I also thought he used to be a democrat.... I wonder though if that would mean he could get cross senate support where other presidents have struggled because their party doesn't control the house ? he may well turn out to be an atrocious president (if elected )but then I don't think America has had a good one for some time now so maybe America needs a president Trump ... Something so bad as to stop them repeating the same mistake over and over With future presidents He was a Democrat for years as a younger man, switched to the Republicans for a while, went back Democrats, and now he's Republican again. He has no political convictions beyond what's good for him at that moment. There's no chance he'd have cross senate support for anything other than the policies you could have a donkey as president and there'd be agreement on. I doubt he'd be a lesson to the nation either. Political affiliation is so ingrained in some states he could set the White House on fire in tribute to our efforts at crushing the Yanks and voting patterns wouldn't change. It's terrifying that the only candidate in the race that isn't horrifying as an outsider looking in is Sanders, and he's got absolutely no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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