Jarpie Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 I can't believe people in here are certain we'll lose to Wigan on the last day, even with their history of the "great escapes" I'm still believing they're gonna get finally relegated, especially given how many games they have in so short space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 I'll give WoodyTom 13/1 on that accumulator if he wants. I'll take any stake too. I'll raise that and give him 15/1. £1000 max though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 I consider myself among st the pessimistic villa fans. However everyone seems to have factored in 2 defeats v Chelsea and wigan - when a draw in either of those games sees us safe. Yes there's a horrible scenario where we could go down - but the last day would be a day like no other - I imagine a flurry a goals up and down the country in the last 15 minutes - you can't factor in form on that day - its just a lottery. A draw v chelsea and we are safe - what would you have given for that a few weeks back ? - Likewise 2 games to game, and its still down to us. We should be ok ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 One more point would be enough from our last 2 games and all of the other results would need to go against us for us to go down on 40 points. As Ron Saunders once said "Do you want to bet against us?" and if so the bookies will oblige no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormandyVillan Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 These 3 midweek games are key for me. Stoke I'm hoping will put pressure and score soft set-piece goals on a brittle Sunderland defence, and I hope Swansea manage to keep the ball and do a professional job on Wigan. I also think a Chelsea win over Spurs could work in our favour. You could even add the other midweek game between Man City and West Brom, in a roundabout way. Looks completely irrelevant to us on paper, but if City slip up and lose or draw and Chelsea beat Spurs, then Chelsea will be only 1 or 2 points behind City, with a superior goal difference. The possibility of an unexpected second place might give them more incentive against us. The best thing for us is Man City win and Chelsea win, meaning Chelsea are certain to finish at least 4th (barring freak results like losing 14-0 to Villa or something...), and will probably finish 3rd whatever their result against Villa. A sizeable points gap above and below Chelsea + a cup final four days later could lead to quite a low-key Chelsea performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 I'm considering a £16 insurance policy that would cover the total cost of a Championship season ticket, in the unlikely event it is required. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacketspuds Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Still can't stop myself thinking we will go down. Wonder what odds there are for Wigan, Norwich and Sunderland to win this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamdog Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Still can't stop myself thinking we will go down. Wonder what odds there are for Wigan, Norwich and Sunderland to win this week. About 7-1/8-1 in a treble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacketspuds Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Still can't stop myself thinking we will go down. Wonder what odds there are for Wigan, Norwich and Sunderland to win this week. About 7-1/8-1 in a treble. Interesting. Might be worth a punt. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted May 6, 2013 (edited) Sunderland to beat Stoke Wigan to beat swans Sunderland draw with Saints Newc to beat qpr Chelsea to beat us and Norwich to beat WBA A 13/1 accumulator. Not exactly massive This is brilliant I don't get why people are so scared. Norwich will finish below us even if we lose to Wigan. Edited May 6, 2013 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 I'm pretty confident we'll beat Wigan away. A result against Chelsea would be a welcome bonus of course, but I don't think we should be bricking it on the last day. Too many things have to go wrong, and we have to lose to Wigan which I just don't see happening. Let's just relax and focus on some revenge on Sunday eh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa-revolution Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 What scenario of results would put us down, I believe there is only 1 and the chances of all the results happening are small. Especially as lots of the teams down there still have to play eachother. Wigan take 5 points more than us from Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Villa (H) Well this is easy enough for them. Beat us and Swansea. Anything against Arsenal is a bonus. Sunderland take 3 more points than us from Stoke (H), Southampton (H), Spurs (A) Sunderland just need to win one of those, which they should. Probably Stoke. Newcastle take 2 more points than us from QPR (A), Arsenal (H) I think this maybe one of our best ways out, Newcastle are shit on the road and I could possibly see QPR getting a point. Norwich take 2 more points than us from WBA (H), Man City (A) Norwich will be going flat out against WBA, that's a massive cup final for them. They have no other option but to win. Southampton take 1 more point than us from Sunderland (A), Stoke (H) Easy. Beat or draw stoke. May even get something at Sunderland. They are a good outfit. Forget this scenario saving us because it will happen. My comments are in bold. And assuming we'll lose to Chelsea and get beat by Wigan (both quite likely). I don't know how anyone can relax on here the fact is we bloody can't. I think the fact we are in form, got 40 points, won our last 2 matches is proving a bit of a red herring to many, including the bookmakers. This is the spectre that looms large for me & I will not relax until it is otherwise. You just know & feel that it is all coming down to that last day at bloody Wigan isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 My mistake! I must have put the £1 in the singles stake box . That makes me feel a little better. Point still stands tho. Reverse those results or mix a few up and you will get a similar accumulator odds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Still can't stop myself thinking we will go down. Wonder what odds there are for Wigan, Norwich and Sunderland to win this week. About 7-1/8-1 in a treble. Interesting. Might be worth a punt. Thanks. Why not take the 33 - 1 if relegation is what you are ultimately concerned about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Not sure why people are so confident. Ok, my post highlights a lot of results that need to come in and yes an accumulator would be pretty big odds. But its not like they are all on the same day. Also, all the teams highlighted have other opportunities to grab the points - I just simply picked the game most likely to get them points. The point for me is simple - If Wigan win tomorrow and we don't pick up points against Chelsea - we are in for the most horrific last day of the season. Not saying we wont be in a better position than others, but I certainly will not be enjoying it. Lose both - we are in big trouble. Only a freakish set of results would save us - (as freakish as the set I have pointed out to send us down). What on Earth are you talking about? How are Norwich losing/drawing to West Brom and then losing to Man City away or Newcastle failing to beat QPR away and then losing to Arsenal at home "freakish" results? And how are Newcastle beating QPR and Norwich beating West Brom freakish results? All your doing is looking at one set of results and singling it out saying, that will never happen. But that would be the case for any set of results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Not sure why people are so confident. Ok, my post highlights a lot of results that need to come in and yes an accumulator would be pretty big odds. But its not like they are all on the same day. Also, all the teams highlighted have other opportunities to grab the points - I just simply picked the game most likely to get them points. The point for me is simple - If Wigan win tomorrow and we don't pick up points against Chelsea - we are in for the most horrific last day of the season. Not saying we wont be in a better position than others, but I certainly will not be enjoying it. Lose both - we are in big trouble. Only a freakish set of results would save us - (as freakish as the set I have pointed out to send us down). What on Earth are you talking about? How are Norwich losing/drawing to West Brom and then losing to Man City away or Newcastle failing to beat QPR away and then losing to Arsenal at home "freakish" results? And how are Newcastle beating QPR and Norwich beating West Brom freakish results? All your doing is looking at one set of results and singling it out saying, that will never happen. But that would be the case for any set of results. They're not, but all of the results necessary for us to go down put together is a freakish set of results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Not sure why people are so confident. Ok, my post highlights a lot of results that need to come in and yes an accumulator would be pretty big odds. But its not like they are all on the same day. Also, all the teams highlighted have other opportunities to grab the points - I just simply picked the game most likely to get them points. The point for me is simple - If Wigan win tomorrow and we don't pick up points against Chelsea - we are in for the most horrific last day of the season. Not saying we wont be in a better position than others, but I certainly will not be enjoying it. Lose both - we are in big trouble. Only a freakish set of results would save us - (as freakish as the set I have pointed out to send us down). What on Earth are you talking about? How are Norwich losing/drawing to West Brom and then losing to Man City away or Newcastle failing to beat QPR away and then losing to Arsenal at home "freakish" results? And how are Newcastle beating QPR and Norwich beating West Brom freakish results? All your doing is looking at one set of results and singling it out saying, that will never happen. But that would be the case for any set of results. They're not, but all of the results necessary for us to go down put together is a freakish set of results. Yeah, I agree. But only as freakish as all of the results necessary to keep us up. Pick a combo of results that will send us down. Then pick a combo of results that will keep us up. The odds will not be that much different. The only difference is that there are more combos to keep us up than to send us down, but that doesnt mean that individually, one set of results is more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardCanning Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 If Chelsea beat Spurs midweek they will need a point to guarantee a Champions League place. RE Villa v Chelsea: When both teams need a draw, a draw is normally the result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Not sure why people are so confident. Ok, my post highlights a lot of results that need to come in and yes an accumulator would be pretty big odds. But its not like they are all on the same day. Also, all the teams highlighted have other opportunities to grab the points - I just simply picked the game most likely to get them points. The point for me is simple - If Wigan win tomorrow and we don't pick up points against Chelsea - we are in for the most horrific last day of the season. Not saying we wont be in a better position than others, but I certainly will not be enjoying it. Lose both - we are in big trouble. Only a freakish set of results would save us - (as freakish as the set I have pointed out to send us down). What on Earth are you talking about? How are Norwich losing/drawing to West Brom and then losing to Man City away or Newcastle failing to beat QPR away and then losing to Arsenal at home "freakish" results? And how are Newcastle beating QPR and Norwich beating West Brom freakish results? All your doing is looking at one set of results and singling it out saying, that will never happen. But that would be the case for any set of results. They're not, but all of the results necessary for us to go down put together is a freakish set of results. Yeah, I agree. But only as freakish as all of the results necessary to keep us up. Pick a combo of results that will send us down. Then pick a combo of results that will keep us up. The odds will not be that much different. The only difference is that there are more combos to keep us up than to send us down, but that doesnt mean that individually, one set of results is more likely. Not at all. We need a large string of results to happen for us to go down. If only one or a couple of those results don't happen we will stay up. If the results to keep us up were just as freakish to send us down the bookies would not have as in the 20s and 30s to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Tom I'm with you I'm still bricking it it is not all over by a long shot. For us to go down We have to take no points from Chelsea and Wigan - possible Southampton take one point from Sunderland or stoke - very possible and likely Norwich take three points from Albion or man citeh - 1 chance to do this so very tough can't afford a draw must win Newcastle take three points from QPR or arsenal - 1 chance really so tough for them can't afford a draw must win Sunderland take three points from stoke, Southampton or spurs - very possible and likely Wigan take six points from Swansea, arsenal , us.- given it's Wigan who know but I wouldn't fancy our chances of nt losing on the last game For me norwich or newcasle are the sides that will save us.not necessarily freakish mantis, the above I have quoted has us down, are the suggestions freakish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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