flamingsombrero Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 (edited) No team that doesn't play after goal celebration music should have to go down while teams that do remain. Edited February 1, 2013 by flamingsombrero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 In theory Dawkins and Sylla should give us the balance we need but it depends on them not being utter shit or getting injured. Even then we may still not be good enough to stay up. I was expecting us to be near the bottom 3 come January before improving but we're certainly leaving it late. Frigging hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regular_john Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 (edited) Not to add to the overall grimness of this thread, but I've just had a look at some previous league tables to try and work out what our chances of staying up are. I accept that statistics don't prove everything, but there are trends in the data that can not be ignored. I looked at the league table at this stage in the season for every season in which there have been 38 games (17 in total, going back to 95/96) and compared them to the final table for that season. The key pieces of data I looked at were: - Who had the worst goal difference at this stage in the season? - Was that team relegated? - Who had the worst goal difference at the end of the season? - Was that team relegated? - Were these teams the same? (i.e. on how many occasions does the team with the worst GD at this stage not have the worst GD come the end of the season) - Of the teams relegated, how many have come back up? I found the following... In 15 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at this stage in the season (24 games played) was relegated (exceptions were Wigan 11/12 and WBA 04/05). In 16 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at the end of the season was relegated (exception was Wigan 09/10). In 14 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at this stage in the season was the same as the team with the worst goal difference at the end of the season In 9 of those 17 seasons, the team relegated has never come back to the Premier League Conclusions? 1. We. Are. (Probably). ****. 2. Wigan are rubbish 3. Being stuck in Kent with nothing to do for a month quickly leads to overly complex analysis of football data Edited February 1, 2013 by regular_john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praisedmambo Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not to add to the overall grimness of this thread, but I've just had a look at some previous league tables to try and work out what our chances of staying up are. I accept that statistics don't prove everything, but there are trends in the data that can not be ignored. I looked at the league table at this stage in the season for every season in which there have been 38 games (17 in total, going back to 95/96) and compared them to the final table for that season. The key pieces of data I looked at were: - Who had the worst goal difference at this stage in the season? - Was that team relegated? - Who had the worst goal difference at the end of the season? - Was that team relegated? - Were these teams the same? (i.e. on how many occasions does the team with the worst GD at this stage not have the worst GD come the end of the season) - Of the teams relegated, how many have come back up? I found the following... In 15 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at this stage in the season (24 games played) was relegated (exceptions were Wigan 11/12 and WBA 04/05). In 16 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at the end of the season was relegated (exception was Wigan 09/10). In 14 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at this stage in the season was the same as the team with the worst goal difference at the end of the season In 9 of those 17 seasons, the team relegated has never come back to the Premier League Conclusions? 1. We. Are. (Probably). ****. 2. Wigan are rubbish 3. Being stuck in Kent with nothing to do for a month quickly leads to overly complex analysis of football data Villa are a much bigger club than Watford etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Villa are a much bigger club than Watford etc. Do we get extra points for that? I hadn't realised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praisedmambo Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I was responding to the stat of how few teams came back up after being relegated. I was a bit half-hearted and should really have explained myself. Many people have been obsessed with the bad examples of teams being relegated and languishing down the leagues, but West Ham and Newcastle seem to have done alright out of it (yeah, Newcastle have been a bit crap until their last game). Villa are a big club and we're not going to have the financial problems of Birmingham or Leeds or Portsmouth. We're not punching above our weight, if anything we're punching below. I'm not condoning relegation and feel quite optimistic one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regular_john Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 But this season is a new beast in many ways, the additional TV money coming in to the Premier league next year will put us a long way behind a lot of other teams financially speaking, especially when you take into account lost revenue from dropping down a league. Relegation this season is going to be a very costly affair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supervillan78 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I've tried to remain optimistic but after our recent results, with a difficult run of fixtures ahead and an abysmal transfer window, I 'm now of the opinion we'll be playing Championship football next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vandaq Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Don`t forget that Genting is gone by the end of the season. That was like 16-17 million right? Obviously we get a new one but I doubt we will get anything close to that if we get relegated. Fun huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Mentally I am now in the post relegation era. I am quite optimistic the club will get its costs under control after a season or two in the championship. I would sooner have a stable championship Aston Villa than doing a QPR which is going to melt down and possibly cease to exist as a club when their crazy spending catches up with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flamingsombrero Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 If you look on the QPR forums there are a large number of their fans that are very very nervous about the way they have gone about things and with good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah. Dont get me wrong , relegation sucks, but I would sooner that than a club meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daweii Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 (edited) The way I see it relegation sucks but there is always a possibility of promotion a possibility you don't get if your club gets liquidated due to bankruptcy which is where QPR are heading if they don't stay up. QPR's wage bill at this point must be rivaling that of Man City and you don't want to get relegated with a wage bill like that. Edited February 1, 2013 by Daweii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The way I see it relegation sucks but there is always a possibility of promotion a possibility you don't get if your club gets liquidated due to bankruptcy which is where QPR are heading if they don't stay up. QPR's wage bill at this point must be rivaling that of Man City and you don't want to get relegated with a wage bill like that. How many clubs does that actually happen to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepDish Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 How many clubs does that actually happen to? They were not liquidated, but both Southampton and Portsmouth ended up in a mess. Funny who was manager in both those before going to the shit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 it will be interesting actually - Villa and QPR have taken very different approaches to secure their future - QPR have spent money - surley on the basis of the increased football revenue. Where as villa haven't - I happen to think we will go down and QPR will stay up - be interesting to see who prospers over the next few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 They were not liquidated, but both Southampton and Portsmouth ended up in a mess. Funny who was manager in both those before going to the shit... Just remind me,where are Southampton in the premier league today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepDish Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 (edited) Just remind me,where are Southampton in the premier league today? Today they are in the relegation battle. But as a reminder for those who do not know Saints fans and have not heard their moaning in the last years: In 05/06 they were in the Championsship. In 06/07 they were in the Championsship. In 07/08 they were in the Championsship. In 08/09 they were in the Championsship. In 09/10 they were in League One. In 10/11 they were in League One. In 11/12 they were in the Championship. If QPR go down, they might be as lucky as those Southampton fans were who did not end up in the shit after Redknapp ruined their finances, and be back in the Premier League in the 20/21 season.... Edited February 1, 2013 by DeepDish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danceoftheshamen Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just been comparing the games from the Prem to those in the Championship Obviously we would miss the massive games against Man U, City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, etc But when you look at the rest??? PREM (Compared to) CHAMPIONSHIP Wigan....................................................Bolton Southampton.........................................Brighton QPR......................................................Leeds Utd Stoke.....................................................Derby Reading.................................................Blackburn Sunderland............................................Middlesboro WBA.......................................................Wolves Fulham...................................................SHA Norwich..................................................Ipswich Newcastle..............................................Sheffield Wed West Ham..............................................Nottm Forest Are they really that much worse? I feel there could even be a case for saying there are more exciting games there than the Prem ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KjParton Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Actually would really look forward to going to all the away games - hope we'd get decent allocation's as well. I could imagine us taking the full allocation for all stadiums which could be 3k each time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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