Predictions and general chat

[Brumerican]

Signing Babin at least signals that the Jags are not going to give up the remainding games for a first round pick . It's a good move in my opinion as our pass rush is **** dire to say the least and we will still get a top 3 pick anyway .

I hope he does well and it would be nice if he hits the golden child a few times next week.

[Tegis]

The left hand ME, where is it?

[Brumerican]

Up Gabbert's arse working him like a puppet.

[maqroll]

Sanchez benched for the final game, LMAO

[kurtsimonw]

Makes no sense unless they are going to trade/cut him. What does Rex know though?

[leviramsey]

Who would trade for Sanchez?

[maqroll]

I'm jonesing for Thursday Night Football

Who would trade for Sanchez?

Arizona

[leviramsey]

He's not that much of an upgrade over what they've already got, though, is he?

[leviramsey]

Still, though, four road playoff wins... If he got his fifth this year, that would also have been two over belichick and Brady...

[maqroll]

I think Sanchez has the ability to be a solid QB in the league, I just think he needs out of NY. Arizona would be a perfect fit for him. He's not an East Coast kind of guy...

[kurtsimonw]

I think he's proven that he can be a good QB, he's just not going to lead a team to the playoffs on his own.

[leviramsey]

Week 16 scenarios

Texans

Clinch home-field advantage with

* win

* tie & Broncos loss/tie

* Patriots loss/tie & Broncos loss

Clinch 1st round bye with

* tie

* Patriots loss/tie

* Broncos loss

Broncos clinch 1st round bye with

* win & Patriots loss/tie

* tie & Patriots loss

Ravens clinch division with

* win

* tie & Bengals loss/tie

Colts clinch playoffs with

* win/tie

* clinching strength of victory/schedule vs. Bengals*

* Steelers loss/tie

Bengals clinch playoffs with win

(yes this means that if Colts win/tiw & Bengals win the AFC playoff berths will be set with a week to go!)

Falcons

Clinch home-field advantage with

* win

* tie & 49ers loss

* Packers loss/tie & 49ers loss

Clinch 1st round bye with

* win/tie

* Packers loss/tie

* 49ers loss

49ers

Clinch division & 1st round bye with

* win & Packers loss/tie

* tie & Packers loss

Clinch division with win/tie

Redskins clinch playoffs with win & Giants loss & Bears loss & Vikings loss

Seahawks clinch playoffs with

* win

* tie & Giants loss & (Bears or Vikings) loss/tie

* tie & Bears loss/tie & Vikings loss/tie

* tie & Cowboys loss & Redskins loss & (Bears or Vikings) loss/tie

* Bears loss & Vikings loss & Redskins loss

* Bears loss & Vikings loss & Cowboys loss/tie & Redskins tie

Giants clinch playoffs with

* win & Bears loss & Vikings loss & Cowboys loss & Redskins loss/tie

* win & Bears loss & Vikings loss & Redskins loss & Cowboys tie

* the Colts/Bengals SoV scenario is complex, but here it is...

SoV being clinched only matters in the scenario where the Colts lose out, the Steelers win out, and the Bengals beat the Ravens in Week 17, so we assume all those results. Further, to demonstrate the clinch, we have to assume that the relevant games in week 17 involving teams that the Colts or Bengals beat (but did not both beat, or where beaten teams play each other) all move in favor of the Bengals. Those results are: Redskins over Cowboys, Jaguars over Titans, Chiefs over Broncos, Patriots over Dolphins, Jets over Bills, and Bears over Lions. The relevant games this week for the Colts/Bengals SoV calculation are Panthers/Raiders (Raiders win helps Bengals), Chargers/Jets (Chargers win helps Bengals), Texans/Vikings (Texans win helps Bengals), Falcons/Lions (Falcons win helps Bengals), and Packers/Titans (Packers win helps Bengals). Granting the Bengals every favorable result in week 17 has them effectively 2 games behind the Colts in SoV. So if the Raiders, Chargers, Texans, Falcons, and Packers combine for fewer than 1.5 wins (counting ties as half-wins), then the Colts clinch SoV. If they combine for 2.5 or more wins, then the Colts cannot clinch this tiebreaker this week. If it's exactly 2 wins, then the tiebreaker would go to strength of schedule (total record of all teams played).

For this, we keep the same results as before, but there's a slightly wider set of games affecting this measure. As before we assume that the week 17 results go the Bengals way: the Bengals are effectively 6 games behind the Colts under that scenario. The games this week from the SoV group persist in the SoS group (though in a few cases, the implication reverses, e.g. Texans beating Vikings helps the Bengals in SoV but hurts them in SoS!). If the Dolphins beat the Bills, the Cowboys beat the Saints, and the Ravens beat the Giants, that helps the Bengals, but that still would leave the Bengals behind. If the Chargers beat the Jets, that counts double for the Bengals: it helps their SoS and hurts the Colts SoS, while the Texans/Vikings game's split personality means that it can't be one of exactly two wins towards the SoV tie. So the scenario is that if 2 of the 5 SoV games go the Bengals way, the Bengals need all three of the SoS games to go their way, have one of the SoV games be Chargers over Jets and have the other SoV game not be Texans over Vikings.

The "Colts clinch on strength of victory/schedule vs. Bengals" line is thus shorthand for:

* 3.5 or more wins (counting ties as half wins) by Panthers, Jets, Vikings, Lions, Titans

* Texans win & Panthers, Jets, Lions, Vikings combine for 3 wins

* Jets win & Vikings, Panthers, Lions, Titans combine for 2 wins

* Vikings win & Chargers win & (Panthers, Lions, Titans) combine for 2 wins & at least one of (Bills, Saints, Giants) win/tie

[leviramsey]

Updated FO DVOA playoff odds

Broncos: 12.8 wins, CLINCHED division, 55% finalists, 34% champions, 20% Lombardi

Patriots: 11.7 wins, CLINCHED division, 46% finalists, 30% champions, 19% Lombardi

Texans: 13.3 wins, CLINCHED division, 66% finalists, 27% champions, 11% Lombardi

Ravens: 9.9 wins, CLINCHED playoffs, 76% division, 16% finalist, 4% champions, 2% Lombardi

Colts: 9.7 wins, 91% playoffs, 0% division, 3% finalist

Bengals: 9.2 wins, 70% playoffs, 14% division, 11% finalist, 4% champions, 2% Lombardi

Steelers: 8.2 wins, 39% playoffs, 10% division, 4% finalist, 1% champions

Dolphins: 6.7 wins, 0% playoffs

Jets: 7.0 wins, ELIMINATED

Bills: 6.0 wins, ELIMINATED

Chargers: 6.0 wins, ELIMINATED

Titans: 5.7 wins, ELIMINATED

Browns: 5.5 wins, ELIMINATED

Raiders: 4.4 wins, ELIMINATED, 45% top 3 pick

Chiefs: 2.7 wins, ELIMINATED, 100% top 3 pick, 38% 1st pick

Jaguars: 2.5 wins, ELIMINATED, 99% top 3 pick, 62% 1st pick

49ers: 11.7 wins, CLINCHED playoffs, 93% division, 51% finalist, 28% champion, 15% Lombardi

Seahawks: 10.6 wins, 99% playoffs, 8% division, 34% finalist, 20% champion, 11% Lombardi

Falcons: 13.2 wins, CLINCHED division, 56% finalist, 26% champion, 9% Lombardi

Packers: 11.5 wins, CLINCHED division, 35% finalist, 17% champion, 7% Lombardi

Redskins: 9.4 wins, 80% playoffs, 68% division, 11% finalist, 4% champion, 2% Lombardi

Giants: 9.3 wins, 51% playoffs, 15% division, 6% finalist, 2% champion, 1% Lombardi

Bears: 9.1 wins, 30% playoffs, 0% division, 4% finalist, 2% champion, 1% Lombardi

Cowboys: 8.8 wins, 20% playoffs, 16% division, 1% finalist

Vikings: 8.7 wins, 20% playoffs, 0% division, 1% finalist

Saints: 7.0 wins, 0% playoffs

Rams: 7.0 wins, 0% playoffs

Bucs: 6.9 wins, ELIMINATED

Panthers: 6.3 wins, ELIMINATED

Cardinals: 5.5 wins, ELIMINATED

Lions: 5.0 wins, ELIMINATED, 15% top 3 pick

Eagles: 4.6 wins, ELIMINATED, 34% top 3 pick

[AVFCforever1991]

Ravens clinch the AFC North

[leviramsey]

It's going to be an interesting week in the AFC.

All six playoff tickets are punched and the #5/#6 seeds are locked in at Colts/Bengals.

#1-#4 are still open, though, with four relevant games: Texans/Colts, Broncos/Chiefs, Patriots/Dolphins, and Ravens/Bengals. Ignoring the possibility of draws, there's 16 configurations:

Texans/Broncos/Patriots/Ravens => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Broncos (13-3), 3. Patriots (12-4), 4. Ravens (11-5) [Texans over Broncos H2H]

Texans/Broncos/Patriots/Bengals => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Broncos (13-3), 3. Patriots (12-4), 4. Ravens (10-6) [Texans over Broncos H2H]

Texans/Broncos/Dolphins/Ravens => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Broncos (13-3), 3. Ravens (11-5), 4. Patriots (11-5) [Texans over Broncos H2H, Ravens over Patriots H2H]

Texans/Broncos/Dolphins/Bengals => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Broncos (13-3), 3. Patriots (12-4), 4. Ravens (10-6) [Texans over Broncos H2H]

Texans/Chiefs/Patriots/Ravens => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Patriots (12-4), 3. Broncos (12-4), 4. Ravens (11-5) [Patriots over Broncos H2H]

Texans/Chiefs/Patriots/Bengals => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Patriots (12-4), 3. Broncos (12-4), 4. Ravens (10-6) [Patriots over Broncos H2H]

Texans/Chiefs/Dolphins/Ravens => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Broncos (12-4), 3. Ravens (11-5), 4. Patriots (11-5) [Ravens over Patriots H2H]

Texans/Chiefs/Dolphins/Bengals => 1. Texans (13-3), 2. Broncos (12-4), 3. Patriots (11-5), 4. Ravens (10-6)

Colts/Broncos/Patriots/Ravens => 1. Broncos (13-3), 2. Patriots (12-4), 3. Texans (12-4), 4. Ravens (11-5) [Patriots over Texans H2H]

Colts/Broncos/Patriots/Bengals => 1. Broncos (13-3), 2. Patriots (12-4), 3. Texans (12-4), 4. Ravens (10-6) [Patriots over Texans H2H]

Colts/Broncos/Dolphins/Ravens => 1. Broncos (13-3), 2. Texans (12-4), 3. Ravens (11-5), 4. Patriots (11-5) [Ravens over Patriots H2H]

Colts/Broncos/Dolphins/Bengals => 1. Broncos (13-3), 2. Texans (12-4), 3. Patriots (11-5), 4. Ravens (10-6)

Colts/Chiefs/Patriots/Ravens => 1. Patriots (12-4), 2. Texans (12-4), 3. Broncos (12-4), 4. Ravens (11-5) [Patriots H2H sweep over Broncos & Texans; Texans over Broncos H2H]

Colts/Chiefs/Patriots/Bengals => 1. Patriots (12-4), 2. Texans (12-4), 3. Broncos (12-4), 4. Ravens (10-6) [Patriots H2H sweep over Broncos & Texans, Texans over Broncos H2H]

Colts/Chiefs/Dolphins/Ravens => 1. Texans (12-4), 2. Broncos (12-4), 3. Ravens (11-5), 4. Patriots (11-5) [Texans over Broncos H2H, Ravens over Patriots H2H]

Colts/Chiefs/Dolphins/Bengals => 1. Texans (12-4), 2. Broncos (12-4), 3. Patriots (11-5), 4. Ravens (10-6) [Texans over Broncos H2H]

So I'd expect to see the Patriots and Ravens games played in the early slot next week and the Texans and Broncos games played in the late slot.

Also interesting is that the only AFC non-playoff coaches whose jobs are absolutely safe are Philbin in Miami and Tomlin in Pittsburgh.

Chargers - Norv is a goner, and the GM is probably gone, too... recipe for a team showing up, taking their game checks and playing not to get injured

Raiders - Dennis Allen's seat is pretty hot, I'd have to think, though part of that is the situation Hue Jackson left him

Chiefs - If Hunt gives Scott Pioli another season as GM, then Crennel probably gets another year, but otherwise both of them are packing and the players will probably quit

Jaguars - despite being in the running for the 1st pick, I think Mularkey is one of the safer situations.

Titans - Munchak's job was probably safe last week, but getting destroyed by the Packers like they were might have Bud Adams considering his options

Browns - Shurmur would be safe, I think, if Randy was still the owner: there's signs of progress that weren't there in previous second-seasons. But Shurmur has new bosses now who might want their guy...

Bills - Chan Gailey's a goner, and probably GM Buddy Nix too

Jets - this season's been enough of an embarrassment that you wouldn't be surprised to see Woody fire both Tanenbaum and Rex.

All the GM+coach likely gone scenarios are tailor-made for quitting: the players know that this won't be their last impression on the guys making the decisions and other teams aren't scouting the games that hard either. Coach but not GM gone is a little less likely to result in quitting.

I definitely see the Colts lying down next week, and probably the Bengals, too. The Patriots don't tend to rest everyone in the final week, but I think the Dolphins could easily pull the upset (division rival and they seem to be playing for Philbin). If the Dolphins do upset the Patriots I think Fox will pull Peyton if the Texans/Colts game starts to get out of hand, which could give the Chiefs a surprise win.

So I think the Texans and Ravens winning is to be expected, and I think it's either Broncos/Patriots wins or Chiefs/Dolphins wins. So I've boldfaced those scenarios as the two most likely AFC scenarios.

1st scenario

Wild Card Round

#5 Colts @ #4 Ravens

#6 Bengals @ #3 Patriots

Divisional Round

#3 Patriots/#4 Ravens/#5 Colts @ #2 Broncos

#4 Ravens/#5 Colts/#6 Bengals @ #1 Texans

In the Wild-Card round, the conference timeslot rotation requires NBC to put the AFC game they pick into prime-time on Saturday and it's perhaps a tough pick: you have the team with the most ratings juice (the Patriots) playing the team with the least (the Bengals). I'd probably lean Bengals/Patriots for the Saturday AFC game and Colts/Ravens for Sunday, with the Broncos on Saturday and the Texans on Sunday in the divisional.

2nd scenario

#5 Colts @ #4 Patriots

#6 Bengals @ #3 Ravens

#3 Ravens/#4 Patriots/#5 Colts @ #2 Broncos

#4 Patriots/#5 Colts/#6 Bengals @ #1 Texans

No-brainer for NBC: Luck/Brady round 2 on Saturday; with Texans on Saturday and Broncos on Sunday.

[leviramsey]

Nine teams in the NFC are still alive for six spots. As I write this, the Seahawks are destroying the 49ers 28-6 at halftime, so I'm assuming a Seahawk win.

Falcons have clinched the #1 seed.

In the West, the 49ers win the division with a win or a Seahawk loss.

If the 49ers win next week, they'd be 3rd seed unless the Vikings beat the Packers

If the 49ers and Seahawks both lose next week, the Niners are 3rd seed

If the Seahawks win and the Niners lose, the Seahawks are the 2nd seed if the Vikings win, 3rd otherwise (most likely thanks to that call)

The Packers will be the #2 seed if they beat the Vikings or the 49ers and Seahawks lose

Cowboys/Redskins is the NFC East Championship Game. Redskins are also in if the Vikings and Bears lose. The Cowboys have been eliminated in the wildcard race.

Seahawks have clinched playoffs by beating the 49ers.

Vikings currently sit in the sixth spot. They are in the playoffs with either a win or losses by the Giants, Cowboys, and Bears.

Bears are in with a win and Vikings loss to the Packers.

Giants need a win and for the Cowboys, Vikings, and Bears to all lose.

[leviramsey]

So for the NFC, the seeding looks to be most likely:

1. Falcons

2. Packers

3. West champ

4. East champ

5. West runner-up

The #6 spot now hinges on Cowboys @ Redskins and Bears @ Lions (assuming the Vikings lose to the Packers), with Eagles @ Giants being relevant in some scenarios

Cowboys/Bears/Eagles: Bears

Cowboys/Bears/Giants: Bears

Cowboys/Lions/Eagles: Redskins

Cowboys/Lions/Giants: Redskins

Redskins/Bears/Eagles: Bears

Redskins/Bears/Giants: Bears

Redskins/Lions/Eagles: Vikings

Redskins/Lions/Giants: Giants

#6 seed would travel to either San Fran or Seattle, and I would think that NBC would take that game unless it's Vikings @ Seahawks.

[leviramsey]

Among the NFC non-clinched teams, how I see the coaching situations:

Cardinals - Whisenhunt has to be on the hot seat

Rams - Fisher is absolutely safe

Panthers - Rivera might just save his job next week with a win over the Saints... could be telling if the players play for him.

Saints - ?????

Bucs - Schiano is absolutely safe

Vikings - Frazier is safe

Lions - Schwartz is probably a goner... beyond the Thanksgiving challenge flag, it's pretty clear that he has no control over the team.

Bears - Lovie is probably gone unless the Bears make the playoffs

Eagles - the only question is whether Reid gets the sack before Norv on Monday morning (or Sunday night, for that matter!)

Redskins - Shanahan is absolutely safe

Giants - Coughlin is probably safe, perhaps at the expense of Fewell and Gilbride

Cowboys - Garrett's seat has to be getting warm

[maqroll]

Strange season, these results are just all over the place. Wide open field in terms of contenders for the trophy. I suppose maybe Denver could be considered the favorite based on their win streak. Colts at Denver is a possibility, which would be a great game. Even better if it were in Indy, even though I hate domes.

Pats need Gronk back in a big way.

[maqroll]

Bears - Lovie is probably gone unless the Bears make the playoffs

He's gone if they don't win the Super Bowl