Predictions and general chat

[leviramsey]

It's looking likely that it will be Colts @ Broncos in the first round of the playoffs...

[kkr]

Been rumours of a 'tired arm'. I don't buy it, he's just having a bad few games. First 6 or 7 or so games he was playing at an elite level, now he's just on a poor run. He'll be fine with a 4,000, 25+ TD season.

Just to go back to this, i think its clear now that the Super Storm took a lot out of this team, in fact i still dont think they are fully over it. I suppose you arent going to be focussed on doing your best with your job when you have no power at home and have your family to worry about. Sharks patrolling the flooded streets of New Jersey doesnt help also!

[maqroll]

2 starting Seahawks cornerbacks suspended for 4 weeks for steroids.

Shit, I have their defense on my fantasy team...

[maqroll]

Fireman Ed Quits, LMAO

[leviramsey]

Fireman Ed Quits, LMAO

There's a circus in the swamp...

[leviramsey]

Colts (and Falcons) seem destined for an early playoff exit

Football coaches will tell you that there's no such thing as an easy game in the NFL, that style points don't matter, and that a win is a win no matter the opponent or margin of victory. And to a degree, they're right. When the league determines who makes the playoffs, they simply check each team's "W" column, and higher is always better. However, if we want to determine which teams can succeed in the playoffs, we need to look a little deeper. The Indianapolis Colts, for instance, have seven wins and an inside track at an AFC wild card berth. This team, however, is nowhere near as good as its record, and seems destined for an early playoff exit.

The Colts have already won five more games this season than they did in 2011. At first glance it's easy to credit that improvement to their new quarterback, but that progress has as much to do with dumb luck as it does with Andrew Luck. Though three of Indianapolis' losses have come by 20 points or more, each of their seven wins has come by 7 points or less. And these aren't powerhouses they're beating, either. Those seven opponents have a combined record of 31-46, and only one (Green Bay) would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. The Colts have spent most of their season playing just a little bit better than some of the worst teams in football.

Does that matter, though, so long as the wins keep piling up? Actually, yes. Over the last ten full seasons, 49 different teams had at least five close wins in a season against teams that missed the playoffs. (The Colts have six such wins right now, though that could change if a team like Minnesota or Miami makes a push into the postseason.) Of those 49 teams, 31 percent missed the playoffs entirely, another 37 percent lost their first playoff game, and only 21 percent even made it to the divisional round. On the other hand, 89 teams in the same decade had at least five wins by nine or more points against non-playoff teams. Only 17 percent of those teams missed the playoffs, and though 36 percent were one-and-done in the postseason, and a whopping 61 percent made it to the divisional round. In a nutshell, teams that beat up cupcakes in the regular season usually do much better in the playoffs than those who narrowly escape defeat week after week. So while style points don't count in the standings, they do tell us who's more likely to win in January.

(While we're on the subject, this should also be a warning to the Atlanta Falcons, who currently have six close wins over non-playoff teams.)

What's the hidden weakness that will likely cost Indianapolis a playoff win? It's not the offense, where Andrew Luck has been all the Colts could have hoped for. No, it's the defense, which is the worst in the NFL according to Football Outsiders' numbers. (That table won't be updated through Week 12 until Tuesday afternoon, but when that update comes, Indianapolis will still be at the bottom.) That's quite a plummet from where they rank in conventional metrics. The Colts are currently somewhere between 19th and 22nd in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and points allowed per game. Two key factors explain this discrepancy, the first of which is turnovers. The Colts are last in the league in fumbles forced, and tied for last in interceptions. Between recovered fumbles and interceptions, they've only forced seven turnovers all season. The Cleveland defense forced eight turnovers in one game this weekend, and nobody's comparing the Browns to the 1985 Bears.

The other reason the Indianapolis defense is so overrated by mainstream statistics is quality of competition. As already mentioned, the Colts have beaten a bunch of lousy teams this year, and that includes a weak list of quarterbacks, like Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden, plus two games against Blaine Gabbert. And by and large, those passers looked much better against Indianapolis than they have against anyone else. The following table shows a sample of what some quarterbacks were able to do against the Colts, compared to how they've fared against the rest of the league:

Tom Brady: 9.46 yds/play, 3 TD-0 INT vs. Colts; 7.14 yds/play, 21 TD-3 INT vs. everyone else

Jay Cutler: 8.49 yds/play, 2 TD-1 INT; 5.33 yds/play, 11 TD-10 INT

Blaine Gabbert: 5.29 yds/play, 1 TD-1 INT; 4.94 yds/play, 8 TD-5 INT (it's not like Gabbert was much better against the Colts...)

Matt Hasselbeck: 7.32 yds/play, 1 TD-0 INT; 5.08 yds/play, 6 TD-5 INT

Christian Ponder: 5.95 yds/play, 2 TD-0 INT; 5.23 yds/play, 11 TD-9 INT

Ryan Tannehill: 7.03 yds/play, 1 TD-0 INT; 6.16 yds/play, 6 TD-12 INT

Brandon Weeden: 6.44 yds/play, 2 TD-0 INT; 5.49 yds/play, 10 TD-13 INT

That table doesn't tell the whole story -- the Indianapolis defense played much better against Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Buffalo's Ryan Fitzpatrick, for example -- but it does show the Colts' tendency to appear on opposing quarterbacks' highlight reels.

Can we expect similar results in the future? Well, Indianapolis still plays Tennessee and Kansas City, which probably means games against Jake Locker and Brady Quinn. This weekend, however, they must face Matthew Stafford and the Lions, and they have two games in December against Matt Schaub and the Texans. And then, if they survive that, come the playoffs themselves. The Colts will probably get nine wins, and that'll probably earn a Wild Card berth in the 2012. There's no way they're overtaking Houston for the division lead, though, and it's hard to see how they'll beat Schaub, Brady, Peyton Manning, or Joe Flacco in the postseason.

Top QBs of the weekend

1. Stafford: 202 DYAR (204 pass, -2 rush) - Stafford gets 74 extra DYAR for playing the Texans. He's also this high just because he had 64 total plays, tied with Tony Romo for the most this week. By DVOA, he would have ranked fifth. In the first half, he went 14-of-26 for 246 yards with 12 first downs (including two touchdowns) and a sack. In the second half and overtime, he went 17-of-35 for 201 yards with nine first downs and two sacks.

2. Tom Brady: 180 DYAR (171 pass, 9 rush) - At the end of the first quarter, Brady was 4-of-9 for 44 yards with one first down and one intentional grounding penalty. Then his first four throws of the second quarter went like this: 3-yard touchdown, 83-yard touchdown, 12-yard gain on first down, 56-yard touchdown. And that was pretty much that. His first third-down pass was incomplete, his next two third-down passes were touchdowns, and for the rest of the day he converted each of his four third-down throws, gaining 43 yards in the process.

3. Cam Newton: 153 DYAR (120 pass, 33 rush) - You think Juan Castillo ever leaves Andy Reid voicemails consisting of nothing but hearty belly laughs?

4. Eli Manning: 129 DYAR (122 pass, 7 rush) - Third and fourth downs: 7-of-9 for 99 yards with three red-zone touchdowns and three other first downs.

5. Russell Wilson: 123 DYAR (114 pass, 9 rush) - Guess who leads all rookies in touchdown passes this season? No, not Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin. It's Wilson, the third-rounder out of Wisconsin who was taken by Seattle in April's draft, five picks after the Jaguars drafted a punter. Wilson had two more touchdowns against Miami, his fourth straight game with at least two scores, and now has 17 in 11 games on the season. He's on pace for 24 touchdowns. Peyton Manning holds the rookie record with 26, and no other first-year player had more than 22. At one point against Miami, Wilson completed 16 passes in a row, and these weren't just checkdowns or dumpoffs either. They totaled 191 yards, with two touchdowns and nine other first downs.

6. Ryan Tannehill: 118 DYAR (111 pass, 7 rush) - Three first-quarter drives: 4-of-8 for 19 yards, one first down, one sack, one interception, two punts. Three fourth-quarter drives: 7-of-8 for 156 yards, six first downs (including one touchdown pass), plus one Daniel Thomas touchdown run, and one field goal.

7. Robert Griffin III: 110 DYAR (100 pass, 10 rush) - Griffin had touchdowns of 68 and 59 yards, but he delivered in scoring range too. Inside the Cowboys' 40, he went 4-of-5 for 65 yards, with every completion a first down or touchdown, and also drew a 5-yard DPI. He did give up a sack in that part of the field, but it was a zero-yard play, and he picked up the first down on the next snap.

8. Josh Freeman: 87 DYAR (87 pass, 0 rush) - Inside the Atlanta 40, in a game that was always within one score, Freeman went 3-of-11 for 40 yards and only two first downs.

9. Matt Ryan: 72 DYAR (64 pass, 8 rush) - Ryan has thrown 69 deep passes this season, which is about average for starting quarterbacks, but he only threw two against Tampa Bay. Of course, one of them was complete for an 80-yard touchdown to Julio Jones, so that counts for a lot.

10. Peyton Manning: 68 DYAR (72 pass, -4 rush) - In the first quarter, Manning went 4-of-7 for 38 yards with one first down and a sack. Then in the fourth quarter, as the Broncos were protecting a one-score lead, he threw seven incompletions in a row. His last two throws were critical third-down conversions as Denver was killing clock and adding a crucial security field goal, but it's largely Manning's fault that the league's worst team had a chance to win this game until literally the final gun.

11. Colin Kaepernick: 55 DYAR (48 pass, 7 rush)

12. Tony Romo: 54 DYAR (52 pass, 2 rush)

13. Jay Cutler: 45 DYAR (43 pass, 2 rush)

14. Mark Sanchez: 40 DYAR (67 pass, -27 rush) [-19 of the rushing DYAR come from the butt fumble]

15. Sam Bradford: 32 DYAR (36 pass, -4 rush)

16. Joe Flacco: 25 DYAR (30 pass, -6 rush)

17. Brady Quinn: 23 DYAR (23 pass, 0 rush)

18. Nick Foles: 15 DYAR (15 pass, 0 rush)

19. Andy Dalton: 9 DYAR (6 pass, 3 rush)

20. Christian Ponder: 7 DYAR (19 pass, -12 rush)

21. Jake Locker: -1 DYAR (1 pass, -2 rush)

22. Philip Rivers: -22 DYAR (-22 pass, 0 rush)

23. Matt Schaub: -34 DYAR (-34 pass, 0 rush)

24. Drew Brees: -38 DYAR (-38 pass, 0 rush)

25. Andrew Luck: -38 DYAR (-40 pass, 3 rush)

26. Brandon Weeden: -42 DYAR (-36 pass, -6 rush)

27. Aaron Rodgers: -44 DYAR (-51 pass, 7 rush)

28. Chad Henne: -50 DYAR (-52 pass, 1 rush)

29. Charlie Batch: -82 DYAR (-82 pass, 0 rush)

30. Carson Palmer: -114 DYAR (-114 pass, 0 rush)

31. Ryan Lindley: -121 DYAR (-123 pass, 2 rush)

32. Ryan Fitzpatrick: -123 DYAR (-116 pass, -8 rush)

[leviramsey]

Eagles cut Jason Babin.

[kkr]

Wow really?! Havent been paying much attention to them but he was solid last season. One of their fans was ranting on youtube about how he would be out of s job next year, guess it didnt take thst long!

[kkr]

DeSean Jackdon to IR also. Sounds like a team ready to give up and play for the draft and a complete rebuild top to bottom.

[kurtsimonw]

I'd take Babin!

[leviramsey]

No major changes in DVOA this week.

AFC picture

Patriots: 11.9 wins, 100% playoffs, 100% division, 55% finalist, 33% champion, 20% Lombardi

Texans: 13.0 wins, 100% playoffs, 99% division, 55% finalist, 25% champion, 11% Lombardi

Broncos: 11.9 wins, 100% playoffs, 100% division, 46% finalist, 25% champion, 14% Lombardi

Ravens: 11.6 wins, 100% playoffs, 96% division, 33% finalist, 14% champion, 6% Lombardi

Bengals: 8.9 wins, 54% playoffs, 2% division, 5% finalist, 2% champion, 1% Lombardi

Steelers: 8.7 wins, 54% playoffs, 2% division, 4% finalist, 1% champion

Colts: 8.7 wins, 67% playoffs, 1% division, 1% finalist

Chargers: 6.4 wins, 7% playoffs, 2% top 3 pick

Jets: 6.6 wins, 6% playoffs, 5% top 3 pick

Bills: 6.9 wins, 5% playoffs, 1% top 3 pick

Dolphins: 6.9 wins, 4% playoffs

Titans: 6.0 wins, 3% playoffs, 5% top 3 pick

Browns: 5.2 wins, 0% playoffs, 19% top 3 pick, 2% #1 pick

Raiders: 4.9 wins, 0% playoffs, 27% top 3 pick, 4% #1 pick

Jaguars: 3.5 wins, 0% playoffs, 80% top 3 pick, 29% #1 pick

Chiefs: 2.9 wins, ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFFS, 91% top 3 pick, 58% #1 pick

NFC picture

49ers: 11.7 wins, 99% playoffs, 93% division, 53% finalist, 34% champion, 19% Lombardi

Bears: 10.8 wins, 91% playoffs, 45% division, 30% finalist, 16% champion, 8% Lombardi

Packers: 10.5 wins, 90% playoffs, 53% division, 25% finalist, 12% champion, 6% Lombardi

Falcons: 12.4 wins, 100% playoffs, 98% division, 45% finalist, 17% champion, 5% Lombardi

Giants: 10.1 wins, 90% playoffs, 82% division, 24% finalist, 11% champion, 5% Lombardi

Seahawks: 9.5 wins, 69% playoffs, 7% division, 17% finalist, 9% champion, 5% Lombardi

Redskins: 7.8 wins, 22% playoffs, 13% division, 3% finalist, 1% champion

Bucs: 8.5 wins, 19% playoffs, 1% division, 2% finalist, 1% champion

Cowboys: 7.5 wins, 8% playoffs, 5% division, 1% finalist

Vikings: 7.7 wins, 7% playoffs, 2% division, 1% finalist

Saints: 7.3 wins, 5% playoffs

Lions: 6.6 wins, 1% playoffs, 1% top 3 pick

Rams: 6.1 wins, 0% playoffs, 2% top 3 pick

Cardinals: 5.5 wins, 0% playoffs, 10% top 3 pick

Panthers: 5.6 wins, 0% playoffs, 11% top 3 pick, 1% #1 pick

Eagles: 4.4 wins, 0% playoffs, 45% top 3 pick, 6% #1 pick

AFC/NFC chances in Super Bowl: 52%-48% to the AFC

Matchups

Randy Moss reunion special (Patriots-49ers): 11%

XXIV rematch (Broncos-49ers): 8%

XX rematch (Patriots-Bears): 5%

Harbaugh Bowl (Ravens-49ers): 5%

XXXIII rematch (Broncos-Falcons): 4%

Matt Schaub's Revenge (Texans-Falcons): 4%

XXXI rematch (Patriots-Packers): 4%

XLII/XLVI rematch (Patriots-Giants): 4%

XXXII rematch (Broncos-Packers): 3%

Pete Carroll Reunion Special (Patriots-Seahawks): 3%

Manning Bowl (Broncos-Giants): 3%

XXXV rematch (Ravens-Giants): 1%

Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl (Bengals-49ers): 1%

Strangely, they forgot to project Cutler's Revenge... I'm guessing it's about 4%.

[leviramsey]

So the moves in the chances of winning the Super Bowl:

49ers: up 3%

Bears: up 3%

Ravens: up 2%

Giants: up 2%

Patriots: up 1%

===

Steelers: down 1%

Bucs: down 1%

Cowboys: down 1%

Broncos: down 2%

Seahawks: down 2%

Packers: down 6%

[maqroll]

Why is hockey in parentheses ^^^

[packoman]

Shocked to see Babin cut.

[leviramsey]

Why is hockey in parentheses ^^^

You mean the quotes in the forum description?

I'm suspecting it's because to a British audience, hockey means the field variety.

See also: "football" in quotes.

[kurtsimonw]

39% chance that the Super Bowl winner will be San Fran or New England? Seems a bit high.

[leviramsey]

Jaguars have claimed Babin off waivers.

(I'll have a comment on why I believe the 49ers/Patriots chances when I get home)

[leviramsey]

The big thing is getting to the Super Bowl.

In the AFC, do you see any real chance of the Colts, Steelers, Bengals, etc. getting to the championship game? I don't.

So you're talking about (ignoring who gets home field) only six possible matchups:

Patriots/Ravens - Patriots probably the better team here, if only because of Ravens' injuries and road problems

Patriots/Texans - we'll get a better idea in a couple of weeks, but the Texans seem vulnerable in a shootout against a team willing to abandon the run (see Packers, Lions)

Patriots/Broncos - Patriots the better team here (esp. without McGahee available)

Ravens/Texans - probably played in Houston... can't see past a Texans win

Ravens/Broncos - would probably go Ravens there

Texans/Broncos - would probably go Texans (I do think the McGahee injury is leading DVOA to overrate the Broncos)

Looked at that way, it's not hard to see how the Patriots could have a 30-40% chance of being AFC champions.

The NFC is a bit murkier. Five teams could make noise, maybe even all six (Bucs, Redskins, or Seahawks, though if the 'hawks are without their starting corners...). The bracket needs to be looked at.

Falcons are in the driver's seat for a #1 seed, but their finishing schedule is kinda brutal (Saints h, Panthers a, Giants h, Lions a, Bucs h): I'd pencil in two losses (Giants and at least one of Saints and Lions) and would not be totally surprised to see four losses. So 12-4 is quite possible. IMO, the Falcons are a 9-7 quality team that's had an easy schedule and a bit of luck.

49ers are a game and a half behind, thanks to the tie with the Rams. The schedule is easier than the Falcons, maybe even a game and a half easier: Rams a, Dolphins h, Patriots a, Seahawks a, Cardinals h. The Rams and Cardinals are done for the season, and the 49ers have to be favored against the Dolphins. West-to-east trips have a long history of being a major handicap, but the Niners under Harbaugh haven't really exhibited that; I'd still pencil in the Patriots as a loss. If the Seahawks are without their starting corners, then the Niners have to be favored in that game. A 4-1 record in the last five would put the Niners at 12-3-1 and give them a very good shot at the top seed.

Bears are half-a-game behind the 49ers; their head-to-head loss only becomes important if they tie someone. Seahawks h, Vikings a, Packers h, Cardinals a, Lions a is a pretty easy schedule. The Seahawks will have a full defensive backfield until the appeal is heard (though if I'm Pete Carroll I might think about dropping the appeal after the Bears game so that the suspension doesn't go into the playoffs...), but even if the Bears lose, wins over the Vikings, Cardinals, and Lions are still likely. 11-5 and a #5 seed is the worst case, but 12-4 and a #2 seed is reasonably possible (12-4 Bears would be ahead of 12-4 Falcons).

Giants will probably fight off the Redskins to win the division. At 7-4 they need a 5-0 run to have a chance at #1 or even probably a #2 seed. Redskins a, Saints h, Falcons a, Ravens a, Eagles h has one guaranteed win against a team that's quit, the other four are all ones that the Giants will be favored in: I think the Giants win 3 of those 4 to finish 4-1 and be 11-5. If the Packers win in two weeks over the Bears, then the Packers (see below) probably win the division and give the Giants a #3 seed thanks to the Packers forgetting they had a regular season game on Sunday night, otherwise it's hard to see the Giants anywhere but the #4 seed.

Packers are 7-4 as well, with a division-heavy schedule remaining: Vikings h, Lions h, Bears a, Titans h, Vikings a. That's very favorable: 4-1 is probably to be expected. Whether they win the division depends on whether that loss is to the Bears or anyone else (the Titans game could be a textbook laydown game...). 11-5 and either #4 (in which case they host the Bears) or #5 (in which case they go back to the Jersey swamp) is what I'd favor.

The #6 will be one of:

Seahawks have the specter of the drug suspensions. Chicago a, Cardinals h, Bills (in Toronto), 49ers h, Rams h. If Carroll has to play backup DBs for the last four, the Seahawks will probably still beat the Cardinals and Rams, while the Bills and especially the 49ers tear them apart. The 'hawks have been rubbish out of the Northwest this season, so I'd not expect a win, though the Bears are kind of banged up. 2-3 and 3-2 are equally likely IMO for 8-8 or 9-7.

Bucs have a 6-5 record and Broncos a, Eagles h, Saints a, Rams h, Falcons a. there's 2 likely wins and a likely loss there, with the division games being the decider. Saints game could be an elimination game if the Saints win at least road game against the Falcons and Giants coming in. The Falcons may or may not need a win in the last game to get a bye. Call it 3-2 to finish 9-7.

Vikings are also 6-5, but a tough schedule (Packers a, Bears h, Rams a, Texans a, Packers h) awaits and they're not in great tiebreaker shape even if the Redskins enter the mix. I think they're done.

Redskins are 5-6, but you can't count RGIII out. Giants h, Ravens h (local derby), Browns a, Eagles a, Cowboys h is a reasonably favorable schedule: 3 finishing wins is likely and it wouldn't be a big upset to beat either the Ravens or Giants at home. 4-1 for 9-7 is reasonable, and would likely mean 7-5 at worst in the NFC, to beat a 6-6 at best Bucs NFC record for the #6 spot

I don't think the Cowboys or Saints get it done.

So if I had to pick a seeding order for the NFC, I'd go

1. 49ers

2. Falcons

3. Giants

4. Packers

5. Bears

6. Redskins or Bucs (though if the Seahawks can beat the Bears this weekend...)

Wildcard upsets are possible in that slate, but all of the Bears, Redskins, Bucs, and Seahawks are questionable picks over the 49ers. If there's no upset in the wildcard, then the Packers go the Candlestick and I don't see a reason to expect a different result from week 1. The 49ers have a pretty good shot at hosting the NFCCG.

I'd take any of the Giants, Packers, or Bears over the Falcons in the other divisional playoff.

The most likely NFCCG's are Giants/Packers/Bears @ 49ers IMO. Maybe the Packers or Bears @ Giants. The 49ers are easy picks over the Packers and Bears. The Packers don't have a good enough defense to stop the Niners, the Bears don't have a good enough offense. The Giants do seem to have a scheme or personnel mismatch with the 49ers, though (and this is something which doesn't come through in DVOA). OTOH, the Giants haven't had many games this season where they haven't had an ugly quarter. But just based on those likely championship game matchups, it's probably reasonable to give the 49ers and Giants each a 35% shot of going to Nawlins, with the Bears and Packers each having a 15% shot.

Patriots/49ers: I'd favor the 49ers

Patriots/Giants: Eli's not going to pull another miracle completion out of his ass again (I hope... )

Patriots/Packers: I'd favor the Patriots

Patriots/Bears: I'd favor the Patriots

Broncos/49ers: 49ers

Broncos/Giants: Giants

Broncos/Packers: Broncos

Broncos/Bears: Broncos

Texans/49ers: 49ers

Texans/Giants: Giants

Texans/Packers: Packers

Texans/Bears: Bears

Ravens/49ers: 49ers

Ravens/Giants: Giants

Ravens/Packers: Ravens

Ravens/Bears: Bears

[leviramsey]

Broncos/Giants in the Super Bowl would be best for forum banter, but the Manning Bowl hype would be unbearable, btw.

[leviramsey]

Playoff scenarios

I hope you all had a happy and healthy Thanksgiving! It seems the division leaders are gobbling up the competition this year (sorry!) as NFL Week 12 brought a little more clarity to the playoff picture. This is first time in memory that four division leaders in a conference (AFC) have a minimum of three-game leads. The NFC is not much closer with only one division within a game (NFC North) and two others that are wide spreads in the NFC West (2.5-game lead for SF) and NFC South (four-game lead for Atlanta).

These wide division gaps will lead to division titles being clinched earlier than normal but will also lead to a murky wild card playoff picture. Also, due to the records of the wild card contenders being worse than normal, we are seeing more teams alive for the playoff race this year. So far, we have only eliminated the 1-10 Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention, leaving 31 teams in the playoff hunt. That's the largest number of teams in playoff contention with five games to play since the 2007 season.

So we look ahead to Week 13 and how teams can lock up playoff positions. We're heavy on division clinching scenarios for this time of year due to the AFC leader positioning, but we have some playoff berth clinching situations to examine as well.

Let's start in the AFC:

- New England can clinch the AFC East division title with a WIN at Miami. That's all they need as the win would give the Patriots a 5-0 division record and would give them at least a split in their season series against the Dolphins. No team in the division could beat New England at 9-7 as they would either have a head-to-head advantage (New England swept Buffalo and the N.Y. Jets) or would beat Miami on division record.

- Baltimore can clinch the AFC North division title with a WIN against Pittsburgh + Cincinnati loss. A win gets Baltimore to 10-6 at worst and Pittsburgh to 10-6 at best and the Ravens would own a 5-0 division record and a season sweep of the Steelers. If you combine that with a Cincinnati loss this week which would get the Bengals to 10-6 at best, the Ravens would have at least a split with Cincinnati and would beat them on division record (5-1 to 3-3). Also, there can't be a three-way tie with Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 10-6 in this scenario because Pittsburgh and Cincy play each other on Week 16.

- If the Ravens don't clinch a division title this week, Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with EITHER a WIN OR a TIE + Cincinnati loss + Miami loss or tie. The win gets the Ravens in the playoffs as they would get to 10-6 at worst and only eight teams can get there, so we need to eliminate two teams to clinch a playoff berth. The win puts Pittsburgh behind Baltimore for good, as we saw above with the season sweep. Miami is another team that can get to 10-6 but they can't beat Baltimore in any tiebreaker as they don't play head-to-head, and Baltimore would have a 9-3 conference record while Miami is 7-5 at best. We must also consider if Miami can win the East and the possibility of New England beating Baltimore in a Wild Card tiebreaker. Well, the Ravens beat the Patriots in Week 3 so that hurts those chances, and if we consider a three-way tie between New England, Baltimore and Indianapolis, the Patriots would need to win that tiebreaker to negate the loss to the Ravens. However, if we get each team to 9-3 in the conference in an effort to have New England win a tiebreaker on strength of victory, that gets Indianapolis to 11-5 overall which kills the three-team tie. If Indy is at 10-6 that would get them to 8-4 at best in conference record, thus leaving Baltimore vs. New England, and we know Baltimore wins that head-to-head. On the TIE scenario leaving Baltimore at 9-6-1 at worst, we need a Cincinnati loss as the Baltimore tie keeps Pittsburgh alive to beat the Ravens. We also need a Miami loss or tie as the loss would keep the Dolphins from catching Baltimore or a tie would create a potential tiebreaker that Miami cannot win over Baltimore (same reasons as above at 10-6).

- Denver can clinch the AFC West division title with EITHER a WIN OR a TIE + San Diego loss or tie OR San Diego loss. Denver can't lose a two-team tie with San Diego due to their head-to-head sweep of the Chargers. If Denver ties with Oakland at 8-8, Denver would win the tiebreaker on common games record (7-5 to 6-6). Also, Oakland getting to 8-8 would give San Diego its 8th loss. In the case of a three-way tie at 8-8, Denver would win the tiebreaker on head-to-head record as the Broncos would be 3-1 vs. 2-2 for Oakland and 1-3 for San Diego.

- The Texans cannot clinch a division title this week, but Houston can clinch a playoff berth with EITHER a WIN or TIE OR Miami loss or tie + Cincinnati loss or tie OR Miami loss or tie + Pittsburgh loss or tie OR Cincinnati loss + Pittsburgh loss. Houston can't clinch the division since Indianapolis could still sweep the Texans with wins in Week 15 and 17. A Texans win or tie gets them into the top seven in the AFC, and with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh playing each other in Week 16 gets Houston a playoff spot. If Houston does not win, they basically need to get rid of two of these three teams: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Miami. Since Baltimore would win any head-to-head tie with either Pittsburgh, Cincy or Miami, a Miami loss or tie (gets rid of Miami) combined with either a Steelers or Bengals loss (creates a tie with Baltimore for one of those teams) or tie (creates a situation where tying team needs to win out including win in the PIT-CIN game) gets the Ravens in the playoffs. If Miami wins, we would need both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to lose to get the Ravens in as Miami could beat them to a wild card, and if either Cincinnati or Pittsburgh wins or ties, they could win out to beat the Ravens to a wild card.

How about some NFC fun?

- Atlanta can clinch the NFC South division title with EITHER a WIN + Tampa Bay loss or tie OR a TIE + Tampa Bay loss. The Atlanta win over New Orleans would get them to 11-5 at worst, but since Tampa Bay could still catch the Falcons at 11-5 and beat them in a tiebreaker on division record (4-2 to 3-3) Atlanta would need a Buccaneer loss or tie to clinch. In the case of an Atlanta tie they would simply need Tampa Bay to lose so that the Bucs couldn't catch them in overall record.

- If Atlanta wins or ties but Tampa Bay wins, the Falcons can clinch a playoff berth with EITHER a WIN + Seattle loss or tie OR a TIE + Seattle loss + Minnesota loss. If Atlanta wins to get to 11-5 at worst and we assume Tampa Bay goes on to win the division, we basically need to get rid of 2 of Green Bay, Minnesota and Seattle to lock up a playoff spot for the Falcons. Since Atlanta would only be 7-5 in the conference in this scenario, they could still lose to Minnesota if the Vikings win out. However, the Vikings winning out means two losses for Green Bay, which would mean at least one of those teams couldn't catch Atlanta at 11-5. So if we get a Seattle loss or tie (the Seahawks can beat the Falcons at 11-5 on conference record), that combined with the Minnesota-Green Bay scenario gets the Falcons in the playoffs. If Atlanta TIES, they still need to get rid of two of those same three teams and would need a Seattle loss to avoid a tie, and a Minnesota loss because the Vikings could tie Green Bay and then win out. Which would leave Atlanta, Minnesota and Green Bay at 10-5-1, and Atlanta would lose out in all cases based on conference record.

To summarize:

Texans

playoff berth with any of:

* win/tie

* Dolphins loss/tie & Steelers loss/tie

* Dolphins loss/tie & Bengals loss/tie

* Steelers loss & Bengals loss

Ravens

playoff berth with any of

* win

* tie & Bengals loss & Dolphins loss/tie

division with

* win & Bengals loss

Patriots

division with

* win

Broncos

division with any of

* win

* tie & Chargers loss/tie

* Chargers loss

Falcons

playoff berth with any of

* win & Seahawks loss/tie

* tie & Seahawks loss & Vikings loss

division with any of

* win & Bucs loss/tie

* tie & Bucs loss