Predictions and general chat

[kurtsimonw]

I just see the Eagles as one of the; if not the; most irrelevant franchise(s) in the league.

That's why we love you BOF.

[maqroll]

I just see the Eagles as one of the; if not the; most irrelevant franchise(s) in the league.

Nah, that honor would go to the Bengals or Jaguars

[maqroll]

A new neighbor moved in next door to me, and he has a grill with a **** Steelers cover over it

Sabotage operation commencing shortly...

[leviramsey]

Broncos back atop the DVOA ratings

Let the churn atop the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings continue! Last week, the Broncos dropped down from first to third. This week, with a big win over Carolina, the Broncos are back in first. In fact, the Broncos open up a bit of a lead over the rest of the league. The Patriots are still in second place, although their actual DVOA did drop because of the close game against Buffalo. San Francisco's attempt to make hot incest pr0n with the Rams drops the 49ers all the way from first place to sixth place, but that drop isn't quite as big as it looks because the teams ranked second through sixth are very close together. Don't overeact to the fact that San Francisco is now below Seattle.

Many fans know that fumble luck is a big part of the reason why the Broncos can be first in DVOA despite their 6-3 record. This week, they recovered only one of their own three fumbles, and didn't recover either of Carolina's. For the season, Denver has recovered just 24 percent of fumbles. But actually, the Broncos aren't the only team with such dismal fumble recovery luck this season. Green Bay has recovered just 25 percent of fumbles, and Kansas City has recovered just 22 percent of fumbles. (This is a big reason why the Chiefs have climbed all the way up to a dramatic 31st in DVOA.)

We're also now starting to see differences between total DVOA and weighted DVOA. Atlanta, for example, drops to 11th in total DVOA and 12th in weighted DVOA. Surprisingly, the Falcons at 8-1 have dropped below a team with a losing record, the 4-5 Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are on a secret hot streak, with over 20% DVOA in each of their last three games even though two of those games were losses to the two teams on either side of them in the DVOA ratings, the Giants and Falcons. The Cowboys are 18th in non-adjusted VOA but 10th in DVOA. The issue is not fumble recovery, but strictly schedule, as the Cowboys have had the third-toughest schedule in the league so far. Their remaining schedule is the easiest in the league by conventional measurement (i.e. winning percentage of opponents) and 25th by our measurement. This little Dallas hot streak should scare the Giants, who seem to have once again gone into their usual November nosedive. With their win this week, and the Giants' loss, the Cowboys see their playoff odds jump by 21.6 percent in the Football Outsiders playoff odds report. Dallas now wins the NFC East in one-third of our simulations. I've learned to have faith in the Giants when they go through this every year, but remember, the second-half swoon has taken the Giants out of the playoffs twice in the Tom Coughlin era.

=-=-=-=-=

It's time for an update on the Historically Great DVOA Watch. The Chicago defense just gets better and better. This week's game had a -64.5% defensive DVOA, making it Chicago's second-best defensive performance of the season, behind Week 3 when they beat St. Louis 23-6 and kept the Rams to just 160 yards. The Bears are very close to breaking the -40% barrier on defense and now rank as the second-best defense we've ever tracked through 10 weeks, behind only the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

However, the Bears aren't the only team on the Historically Great DVOA Watch right now. The Baltimore Ravens special teams have been on fire the last couple weeks, and 42.0% DVOA in this week's huge blowout of Oakland is the best special teams game in the NFL this year. As a result, the Ravens have not only passed Chicago but have also climbed into the top ten for all-time special teams DVOA. The Ravens are slightly below average on punt returns, but excellent in every other aspect of special teams. If kickers had more marginal value, we would be considering Justin Tucker for Rookie of the Year. He leads all kickers this season in both field goal value (7.65 points above average) and gross kickoff value (6.5 points above average).

It's a little odd to see no Chicago Bears teams on that "best special teams DVOA" list, but the 2006 Bears would be 13th, the 2011 Bears would be 14th, and the 2007 Bears -- who finished with the best special teams DVOA of the Hester years -- had their best games in the second half of the season.

This year's top offense, New England, is 14th all-time through Week 10, but is on its way to some other records. The Patriots are on pace to break the NFL record for first downs in a season. They are on pace to finish with offensive DVOA above 30% for the third straight year, only the second team to do so. (The other was Kansas City from 2002 to 2004.) This would also give them offensive DVOA above 25% five times in a six-year span: 2007 and then 2009 through 2012.

1. Broncos (#4 offense, #4 defense)

2. Patriots (#1 offense, #17 defense)

3. Seahawks (#13 offense, #3 defense)

4. Packers (#2 offense, #7 defense)

5. Bears (#27 offense, #1 defense)

6. 49ers (#3 offense, #6 defense)

7. Texans (#12 offense, #2 defense)

8. Ravens (#9 offense, #20 defense)

9. Giants (#7 offense, #9 defense)

10. Cowboys (#10 offense, #15 defense)

11. Falcons (#11 offense, #18 defense)

12. Steelers (#16 offense, #19 defense)

13. Bucs (#8 offense, #14 defense)

14. Lions (#5 offense, #25 defense)

15. Vikings (#21 offense, #16 defense)

16. Saints (#6 offense, #30 defense)

17. Rams (#19 offense, #10 defense)

18. Bengals (#18 offense, #26 defense)

19. Panthers (#20 offense, #8 defense)

20. Dolphins (#25 offense, #11 defense)

21. Redskins (#14 offense, #23 defense)

22. Chargers (#22 offense, #21 defense)

23. Bills (#17 offense, #31 defense)

24. Cardinals (#30 offense, #5 defense)

25. Jets (#28 offense, #12 defense)

26. Eagles (#24 offense, #13 defense)

27. Colts (#15 offense, #32 defense)

28. Browns (#29 offense, #22 defense)

29. Titans (#26 offense, #28 defense)

30. Raiders (#23 offense, #29 defense)

31. Chiefs (#32 offense, #24 defense)

32. Jaguars (#31 offense, #27 defense)

NFCN: +67.6%

NFCW: +49.4%

NFCS: +2.4%

AFCE: +2.1%

NFCE: -2.5%

AFCN: -6.9%

AFCW: -40.0%

AFCS: -64.5%

[leviramsey]

Texans: 12.7 wins, 100% playoffs, 98% division, 60% finalist, 30% champion, 15% Lombardi

Broncos: 11.7 wins, 100% playoffs, 100% division, 52% finalist, 30% champion, 17% Lombardi

Patriots: 11.2 wins, 99% playoffs, 98% division, 47% finalist, 25% champion, 14% Lombardi

Ravens: 10.8 wins, 97% playoffs, 65% division, 27% finalist, 11% champion, 5% Lombardi

Steelers: 10.1 wins, 89% playoffs, 34% division, 12% finalist, 4% champion, 1% Lombardi

Colts: 8.4 wins, 47% playoffs, 2% division, 1% finalist

Bengals: 7.7 wins, 20% playoffs, 1% division, 1% finalist, 1% top 3 pick

Chargers: 6.9 wins, 17% playoffs, 1% division, 1% finalist, 2% top 3 pick

Bills: 6.9 wins, 11% playoffs, 2% top 3 pick

Dolphins: 6.8 wins, 8% playoffs, 1% division, 2% top 3 pick

Titans: 6.4 wins, 5% playoffs, 4% top 3 pick

Jets: 6.2 wins, 6% playoffs, 15% top 3 pick, 2% 1st pick

Raiders: 5.7 wins, 2% playoffs, 14% top 3 pick, 2% 1st pick

Browns: 4.5 wins, 0% playoffs, 45% top 3 pick, 10% 1st pick

Chiefs: 3.7 wins, 0% playoffs, 74% top 3 pick, 30% 1st pick

Jaguars: 3.2 wins, 0% playoffs, 86% top 3 pick, 49% 1st pick

Falcons: 11.8 wins, 96% playoffs, 92% division, 41% finalist, 17% champion, 6% Lombardi

Bears: 11.2 wins, 90% playoffs, 49% division, 38% finalist, 22% champion, 12% Lombardi

Packers: 10.7 wins, 87% playoffs, 48% division, 33% finalist, 18% champion, 10% Lombardi

49ers: 10.6 wins, 86% playoffs, 56% division, 32% finalist, 17% champion, 9% Lombardi

Seahawks: 10.3 wins, 83% playoffs, 43% division, 29% finalist, 16% champion, 8% Lombardi

Giants: 9.5 wins, 72% playoffs, 61% division, 17% finalist, 7% champion, 3% Lombardi

Bucs: 8.5 wins, 21% playoffs, 7% division, 3% finalist, 1% champion

Cowboys: 8.4 wins, 39% playoffs, 34% division, 6% finalist, 2% champion, 1% Lombardi

Vikings: 7.9 wins, 10% playoffs, 3% division, 1% finalist

Lions: 7.3 wins, 5% playoffs, 1% division, 1% finalist, 1% top 3 pick

Saints: 7.0 wins, 5% playoffs, 1% division, 2% top 3 pick

Redskins: 6.4 wins, 5% playoffs, 4% division, 7% top 3 pick, 1% 1st pick

Rams: 6.4 wins, 2% playoffs, 5% top 3 pick

Cardinals: 6.2 wins, 1% playoffs, 6% top 3 pick

Eagles: 5.6 wins, 1% playoffs, 1% division, 16% top 3 pick, 2% 1st pick

Panthers: 5.4 wins, 0% playoffs, 22% top 3 pick, 4% 1st pick

Super Bowl matchups

XXXII rematch (Broncos-Packers): 6%

XX rematch (Patriots-Bears): 5%

XXIV rematch (Broncos-49ers): 5%

Matt Schaub's Revenge (Texans-Falcons): 5%

XXXIII rematch (Broncos-Falcons): 5%

XXXI rematch (Patriots-Packers): 4%

Randy Moss reunion (Patriots-49ers): 4%

Pete Carroll reunion (Patriots-Seahawks): 4%

Manning Bowl (Broncos-Giants): 2%

Harbaugh Bowl (Ravens-49ers): 2%

XLII-XLVI rematch (Patriots-Giants): 2%

XXXV rematch (Ravens-Giants): 1%

XLV rematch (Steelers-Packers): 1%

Texas Bowl (Texans-Cowboys): 1%

XL rematch (Steelers-Seahawks): 1%

XII rematch (Broncos-Cowboys): 1%

[maqroll]

Looks pretty grim for Big Ben- sprained throwing shoulder, and a "rib injury" that "threatens his aorta"

I'm guessing he's finished for the season.

[leviramsey]

Apparently that rib injury is of a type that's only happened once before... the doctors have no playbook for this.

[kurtsimonw]

Why do bad things keep happening to this nice bloke?

[leviramsey]

Speaking of QBs drafted in 04 and injuries, is Eli hiding an injury or something?

He's posted less than 400 yards more than what a replacement level QB (ie a backup) would post given the mix of situations and play calls he's been involved.

Romo: 641 dyar, 2491 yds, 12 tds, 3 fumbles, 13 picks

Eli: 368 dyar, 2555 yds, 12 tds, 2 fumbles, 11 picks

Eli's not having an elite season (he's closer, statistically, to Fitzpatrick than to Schaub)...

[kurtsimonw]

Been rumours of a 'tired arm'. I don't buy it, he's just having a bad few games. First 6 or 7 or so games he was playing at an elite level, now he's just on a poor run. He'll be fine with a 4,000, 25+ TD season.

[leviramsey]

Current consolidated standings, with tiebreaker explanations

AFC

1. Texans: 9-1

2. Ravens: 8-2

===

3. Patriots: 7-3

4. Broncos: 7-3

===

5. Colts: 6-4

6. Steelers: 6-4

===

7. Bengals: 5-5

8. Chargers: 4-6

9. Titans: 4-6

10. Jets: 4-6

11. Bills: 4-6

12. Dolphins: 4-6

13. Raiders: 3-7

14. Browns: 2-8

15. Jaguars: 1-9

16. Chiefs: 1-9

3 - Patriots over Broncos: head-to-head

5 - Colts over Steelers: 4-3 AFC vs. 3-4

8 - Chargers: 4-3 AFC vs. 3-4 Titans, 3-4 Jets

9 - Titans over Jets: 3-3 common opps vs. 3-4

10 - Jets: 2nd East vs. 3rd Bills vs. 4th Dolphins

AFCE2 - Jets: 2-1 h2h vs. 1-1 Bills vs. 1-2 Dolphins

11 - Bills over Dolphins: 3rd East vs. 4th

AFCE3 - Bills over Dolphins: head-to-head

15 - Jaguars over Chiefs: 1-5 AFC vs. 0-7 (note that this is not the draft order tiebreaker

NFC

1. Falcons: 9-1

2. 49ers: 7-2-1

===

3. Packers: 7-3

4. Giants: 6-4

===

5. Bears: 7-3

6. Seahawks: 6-4

===

7. Bucs: 6-4

8. Vikings: 6-4

9. Saints: 5-5

10. Cowboys: 5-5

11. Redskins: 4-6

12. Lions: 4-6

13. Cardinals: 4-6

14. Rams: 3-6-1

15. Eagles: 3-7

16. Panthers: 2-8

3 - Packers over Bears: 1st North vs. 2nd

NFCN1 - Packers over Bears: head-to-head

6 - Vikings eliminated: head-to-head losses vs. Seahawks, Bucs

6 - Seahawks over Bucs: 4-4 NFC vs. 3-4

7 - Bucs over Vikings: head-to-head

9 - Saints over Cowboys: .500 strength-of-victory vs. .380

11 - Redskins: 4-4 NFC vs. 3-5 Lions vs. 2-5 Cardinals

12 - Lions over Cardinals: 3-5 NFC vs. 2-5

If the Packers beat the Giants this week, the real losers in the "fail mary" may be the Giants who could get held out of the playoffs by that call...

[leviramsey]

DVOA ratings updated

It's no surprise that San Francisco returns to the top spot in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after last night's thorough dismantling of the Chicago Bears. The 49ers ended up with a single-game DVOA of 130.5%, which is the highest in any single game since the New England Patriots (at 130.9%) slaughtered the Tennessee Titans 59-0 in a freak October snowstorm back in Week 6 of 2009.

In fact, the bigger surprise here is that the Bears don't take a bigger hit from their terrible performance in last night's game. Overall, San Francisco's DVOA went up about ten percentage points, and Chicago's went down about ten percentage points. Yet even after the barrage of 49ers passes and seven-OL power runs, the Bears still have the third-best defensive DVOA we've ever tracked through Week 11. In fact, in part because the 49ers offense has been so good this year overall -- they now rank second in offensive DVOA behind New England -- the Bears actually escaped with negative defensive DVOA for the game. By FO standards, the Bears still have not had a game this year where the defense played below average. Part of the issue here is that the 49ers offense was far more spectacular in quarters one and three than it was in quarters two and four.

Yes, the 49ers were essentially running out the clock in the fourth quarter, but remember that DVOA compares plays to similar plays based on situation, so the DVOA ratings here account for the 49ers' lead. The ratings basically say that the Chicago defense played well enough in the fourth quarter to allow for a miracle comeback if the offense had played equally well. Instead, the offense played just as poorly as it had the rest of the night.

When you have a game like this between two very good teams, the opponent adjustments are going to end up blunting the effect for the losing team but boosting the effect for the winning team. Thus, the 49ers move up from sixth to first this week, while the Bears drop only one spot, from fifth to sixth.

This week's other dominating victory came from the New England Patriots, and their overall DVOA goes up five percentage points, although they stay in second place because San Francisco passes them. The Patriots now have the highest Super Bowl chances according to our playoff odds report, and they've moved up onto the list of the best offenses ever. One interesting thing about New England's high total DVOA in 2012 is that according to our metrics, the New England defense is nowhere near as bad as most fans believe. The Patriots are currently 20th in defensive DVOA, with roughly the same defensive DVOA as Washington or Baltimore, and they rank 17th in weighted defensive DVOA, so things are gradually getting better.

What's different between this year's New England defense and the defense that finished 30th in the league a year ago? As far as standard stats go, the Patriots are actually allowing more points than a year ago (22.5 vs. 21.4) but fewer yards per play (5.9 vs. 6.2). When we look at DVOA, the biggest issue is an improvement against the run. Last year, the Patriots were equally bad against both the pass (28th) and the run (25th). This year, they're 20th against the pass but have improved to 11th against the run.

The improvement against the pass isn't about the pass rush. The addition of rookie Chandler Jones and the loss of Andre Carter have basically been a wash, so the Patriots have roughly the same Adjusted Sack Rate that they had a year ago. Instead, there's been a huge change in the team's ability to cover the opponent's best receivers. The Patriots actually rank in the top ten in DVOA against both No. 1 and No. 2 receivers this year. With No. 2 receivers, that's an issue of improved coverage; with No. 1 receivers, they're still allowing plenty of yardage but they've gotten a ton of turnovers (eight interceptions and a forced fumble). Just like last year -- in fact, worse than last year -- the Patriots are getting killed by tight ends and slot receivers. They also are having problems covering opposing running backs that they didn't have a year ago.

Whatever improvements the Patriots have made, it is still not helping the team get off the field on third down, as Pats fans know all too well. Last year, the Pats ranked 28th in pass defense on third or fourth down. This year, the Pats rank 29th. As far as direction, the Patriots are still giving up plenty of passes to the middle and right side of the field, but they've become much stronger against passes to the offensive left (or defensive right). Unfortunately, even though the Patriots like to leave cornerbacks on specific sides, we can't really attribute this to any particular player right now because Bill Belichick has been yanking his corners in and out of the lineup all year. Sometimes Kyle Arrington has been over there, sometimes Ras-I Dowling, sometimes Alfonzo Dennard, and sometimes the now-departed Sterling Moore.

I'm sure we'll be looking at this again in a few weeks, when we hit the postseason. By that point, we'll be able to use a lot more charting information, and we'll be able to look at the team's performance with and without new No. 1 cornerback Aqib Talib.

Here's a look at where the 49ers and Patriots stand now that they've moved into the top ten all-time in total DVOA and offensive DVOA, respectively. We now have one team from 2012 in the top ten for each category of DVOA, although it is four different teams: San Francisco overall, New England on offense, Chicago on defense... and the Baltimore Ravens now sitting with the best special teams we've ever measured through 11 weeks of the season.

1. 49ers

2. Patriots

3. Broncos

4. Seahawks

5. Packers

6. Bears

7. Texans

8. Giants

9. Ravens

10. Steelers

11. Cowboys

12. Falcons

13. Bucs

14. Saints

15. Lions

16. Vikings

17. Bengals

18. Redskins

19. Panthers

20. Rams

21. Cardinals

22. Bills

23. Dolphins

24. Jets

25. Chargers

26. Browns

27. Eagles

28. Colts

29. Titans

30. Jaguars

31. Raiders

32. Chiefs

Offenses

1. Patriots

2. 49ers

3. Packers

4. Broncos

5. Saints

28. Eagles

29. Bears

30. Jaguars

31. Cardinals

32. Chiefs

Defenses

1. Bears

2. Seahawks

3. Texans

4. Cardinals

5. Broncos

28. Titans

29. Bills

30. Raiders

31. Saints

32. Colts

Hardest schedule played

1. Rams

2. Panthers

3. Cardinals

30. Falcons

31. Chargers

32. Dolphins

Hardest schedule remaining

1. Vikings

2. Dolphins

3. Cardinals

30. Titans

31. Panthers

32. Broncos

Divisional ratings

NFCW: +64.1%

NFCN: +55.7%

AFCE: +13.4%

NFCS: +5.3%

AFCN: -1.4%

NFCE: -4.5%

AFCS: -70.7%

AFCW: -49.6%

[leviramsey]

Playoff odds

AFC

Texans: 12.7 wins, 100% playoffs, 99% division, 54% finalist, 26% champion, 11% Lombardi

Broncos: 11.8 wins, 100% playoffs, 100% division, 50% finalist, 28% champion, 16% Lombardi

Patriots: 11.6 wins, 100% playoffs, 100% division, 53% finalist, 31% champion, 19% Lombardi

Ravens: 11.1 wins, 99% playoffs, 84% division, 29% finalist, 11% champion, 4% Lombardi

Steelers: 9.6 wins, 80% playoffs, 14% division, 9% finalist, 3% champion, 1% Lombardi

Bengals: 8.5 wins, 38% playoffs, 2% division, 3% finalist, 1% champion

Colts: 8.1 wins, 35% playoffs, 1% division

Bills: 7.4 wins, 18% playoffs, 0% division, 1% finalist

Jets: 6.9 wins, 12% playoffs, 2% top 3 pick

Chargers: 6.8 wins, 13% playoffs, 1% top 3 pick

Titans: 6.3 wins, 4% playoffs, 3% top 3 pick

Dolphins: 6.1 wins, 1% playoffs, 3% top 3 pick

Raiders: 5.1 wins, 1% playoffs, 20% top 3 pick, 2% first pick

Browns: 4.4 wins, 0% playoffs, 41% top 3 pick, 8% first pick

Chiefs: 3.2 wins, 0% playoffs, 83% top 3 pick, 40% first pick

Jaguars: 3.1 wins, 0% playoffs, 85% top 3 pick, 43% first pick

NFC

Falcons: 11.9 wins, 95% playoffs, 88% division, 38% finalist, 14% champion, 5% Lombardi

49ers: 11.4 wins, 95% playoffs, 75% division, 48% finalist, 30% champion, 16% Lombardi

Packers: 11.2 wins, 93% playoffs, 71% division, 41% finalist, 22% champion, 11% Lombardi

Bears: 10.5 wins, 77% playoffs, 25% division, 22% finalist, 11% champion, 5% Lombardi

Seahawks: 10.2 wins, 75% playoffs, 25% division, 24% finalist, 13% champion, 7% Lombardi

Giants: 9.5 wins, 70% playoffs, 61% division, 16% finalist, 7% champion, 3% Lombardi

Bucs: 9.1 wins, 32% playoffs, 11% division, 4% finalist, 1% champion, 1% Lombardi

Cowboys: 8.3 wins, 34% playoffs, 30% division, 4% finalist, 2% champion, 1% Lombardi

Vikings: 8.0 wins, 10% playoffs, 4% division, 1% finalist

Saints: 7.7 wins, 9% playoffs, 1% division, 1% finalist

Redskins: 7.1 wins, 10% playoffs, 8% division, 1% finalist, 1% top 3 pick

Lions: 7.0 wins, 1% playoffs, 1% top 3 pick

Cardinals: 6.1 wins, 0% playoffs, 3% top 3 pick

Rams: 5.5 wins, 0% playoffs, 10% top 3 pick

Eagles: 5.0 wins, 0% playoffs, 23% top 3 pick, 2% first pick

Panthers: 5.0 wins, 0% playoffs, 24% top 3 pick, 4% first pick

If the Giants fall out of the NFC East lead, it looks reasonably likely that the Golden Tate call in Seattle will keep the Giants out of the playoffs...

[kurtsimonw]

Us being shit wil keep us out of the playoffs!

[leviramsey]

Worst NFL uniforms ever (most of them are throwbacks to the early days)

[BerniesElbow]

The Pittsburgh Steelers, Michigan Wolverines and Miami Heat walk into a bar.

I forget the rest, but their mothers are whores.

[maqroll]

I wouldn't put it past Rex Ryan to start Tebow next week...they need something to give them a spark, because as bad as they are, they have an outside chance at a playoff birth.

[maqroll]

Worst NFL uniforms ever (most of them are throwbacks to the early days)

The Broncos one takes it...truly vomit-inducing.

[leviramsey]

2 starting Seahawks cornerbacks suspended for 4 weeks for steroids.

[kkr]

Oops wrong thread