AVFC-Prideofbrum Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I've just run a million simulations of the rest of the season... 1st: 24 times (.0024%) 2nd: 387 (.0387%) 3rd: 4094 (.409%) 4th: 15,711 (1.57%) 5th: 30,554 (3.06%) 6th: 46,463 (4.65%) 7th: 61,337 (6.13%) 8th: 73,643 (7.36%) 9th: 85,677 (8.57%) 10th: 96,573 (9.66%) median finish 11th: 104,270 (10.4%) 12th: 110,562 (11.1%) modal finish 13th: 108,560 (10.9%) 14th: 96,977 (9.70%) 15th: 74,750 (7.48%) 16th: 50,036 (5.00%) 17th: 26,837 (2.68%) 18th: 9,861 (.986%) 19th: 3,069 (.307%) 20th: 595 (.060%) Upper end of bottom half for me. What are you? Virgin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bose Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 20 pounds to VT if we don't finish in the top half this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oaks Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 20 pounds to VT if we don't finish in the top half this season. I'l second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuintonK6 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Still think we'll finish in the top 8. This league is so open and we'll come good for sure once everyone's fit and hopefully a few additions in Jan. Gonna be in no particular order. Manure. Chelski Arsenal. Citeh. Spuds. Liverpool. Everton. Villa. KEEP THE FAITH !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 So it was pretty pointless then. Pretty much. Mathematical modelling based (I presume) on a variation of a monte-carlo simulation process, which tends to lead in normal (what is normal) circumstances to provide a reliable guide to future outcomes. Seeing as the same or similar processes are used to determine your future wellbeing (BoE deciding on interest rates, banks deciding to give you credit) it would hardly be pointless but more likely are more reasonable approach to second guessing our end of season position, and with more substance, than most of the opinions offered so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted November 21, 2010 VT Supporter Share Posted November 21, 2010 Apologies for calling it pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I've just run a million simulations of the rest of the season... 1st: 24 times (.0024%) 2nd: 387 (.0387%) 3rd: 4094 (.409%) 4th: 15,711 (1.57%) 5th: 30,554 (3.06%) 6th: 46,463 (4.65%) 7th: 61,337 (6.13%) 8th: 73,643 (7.36%) 9th: 85,677 (8.57%) 10th: 96,573 (9.66%) median finish 11th: 104,270 (10.4%) 12th: 110,562 (11.1%) modal finish 13th: 108,560 (10.9%) 14th: 96,977 (9.70%) 15th: 74,750 (7.48%) 16th: 50,036 (5.00%) 17th: 26,837 (2.68%) 18th: 9,861 (.986%) 19th: 3,069 (.307%) 20th: 595 (.060%) Upper end of bottom half for me. What are you? Virgin. Indeed, but I'm not sure that your virginity has any relevance to the statistic Levi has presented us with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Seeing as the largest vote is going for 9-14, is it not time to resurrect this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Just picking up on those 'ups' of Houlliers reign... IMO.. Against Wolves we were for pretty decent periods second best and snatched victory. Burnley we were pretty shit. Blackpool had vast swathes, first half especially, where we were bollocks. Blackpool being camped in our half is a sight I'll not forget in a hurry, especially as we had absolutely no clue what to do about it it seemed. The first Blackburn win we also seemed to grasp from the jaws of disappointment. Bearing that in mind I'm not that impressed. Okay, what are the downs then....because you could just counter the downs with a whole load of things and then at the end say 'bearing that in mind, I'm pretty impressed'....depends how you want to look at things. Well the thing is, for me, it's not just that I'm looking to put down the wins... I can think of about 3 genuinely good performances so far. Other than that, asides a few upsides like the arrival of Albrighton (how much you can lay that success at Houlliers door is debatable), it's been pretty universally mediocre at best. I haven't seen much to be enthused about. I'm not that impressed by passing a bit more. Still just my opinion. Others will disagree. Okay but I'll give you three. Man United, Fulham, Tottenham. Two of which, we concede late goals in games we should have won. The other Tottenham, we had enough chances to win the game and also the story of our season, an injury killed us when Heskey on fire at the time, had to come off for who at the time, in dire form, Carew. Results aren't great but performances have been decent, I can't think of a game yet I've watched and thought 'we deserved to lose that'. Under Houllier anyway. Games like Newcastle are performances I'd be worried about. Not today. The reason we lost is because we got done by two set-peices, which isn't surprising when your forced to play a side pretty much all under 6 ft, apart 2/3, I thought Blackburn pretty much strolled it to be honest. OK we had loads of possession and you could even say pressure of sorts. But this was all up to last third - after that I thought blackburn coped pretty easily - Young hit the bar - and couple of long range efforts and that was it. Did someone say we haven't yet equalised under Houllier - Dunno how true that is - but it never looked on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Still think we'll finish in the top 8. This league is so open and we'll come good for sure once everyone's fit and hopefully a few additions in Jan. Gonna be in no particular order. Manure. Chelski Arsenal. Citeh. Spuds. Liverpool. Everton. Villa. KEEP THE FAITH !!! you missed out bolton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFC-Prideofbrum Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Just picking up on those 'ups' of Houlliers reign... IMO.. Against Wolves we were for pretty decent periods second best and snatched victory. Burnley we were pretty shit. Blackpool had vast swathes, first half especially, where we were bollocks. Blackpool being camped in our half is a sight I'll not forget in a hurry, especially as we had absolutely no clue what to do about it it seemed. The first Blackburn win we also seemed to grasp from the jaws of disappointment. Bearing that in mind I'm not that impressed. Okay, what are the downs then....because you could just counter the downs with a whole load of things and then at the end say 'bearing that in mind, I'm pretty impressed'....depends how you want to look at things. Well the thing is, for me, it's not just that I'm looking to put down the wins... I can think of about 3 genuinely good performances so far. Other than that, asides a few upsides like the arrival of Albrighton (how much you can lay that success at Houlliers door is debatable), it's been pretty universally mediocre at best. I haven't seen much to be enthused about. I'm not that impressed by passing a bit more. Still just my opinion. Others will disagree. Okay but I'll give you three. Man United, Fulham, Tottenham. Two of which, we concede late goals in games we should have won. The other Tottenham, we had enough chances to win the game and also the story of our season, an injury killed us when Heskey on fire at the time, had to come off for who at the time, in dire form, Carew. Results aren't great but performances have been decent, I can't think of a game yet I've watched and thought 'we deserved to lose that'. Under Houllier anyway. Games like Newcastle are performances I'd be worried about. Not today. The reason we lost is because we got done by two set-peices, which isn't surprising when your forced to play a side pretty much all under 6 ft, apart 2/3, I thought Blackburn pretty much strolled it to be honest. OK we had loads of possession and you could even say pressure of sorts. But this was all up to last third - after that I thought blackburn coped pretty easily - Young hit the bar - and couple of long range efforts and that was it. Did someone say we haven't yet equalised under Houllier - Dunno how true that is - but it never looked on today. No we haven't equalized but we've also won games vs Blackpool and Wolves late on...(although conceding to Blackpool fairly late too) Which are better than equalizing! Young header, Downing and Young first half had attempts inside the box well saved by Robinson, as well as Herd header cleared off the foot of the Fonz as well as the long range efforts which was similar to them really. Yet most of their chances came on the break. I don't think they strolled it. Apart from the Pederson free-kick, I don't think Friedel made a save in the first half did he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Just picking up on those 'ups' of Houlliers reign... IMO.. Against Wolves we were for pretty decent periods second best and snatched victory. Burnley we were pretty shit. Blackpool had vast swathes, first half especially, where we were bollocks. Blackpool being camped in our half is a sight I'll not forget in a hurry, especially as we had absolutely no clue what to do about it it seemed. The first Blackburn win we also seemed to grasp from the jaws of disappointment. Bearing that in mind I'm not that impressed. Okay, what are the downs then....because you could just counter the downs with a whole load of things and then at the end say 'bearing that in mind, I'm pretty impressed'....depends how you want to look at things. Well the thing is, for me, it's not just that I'm looking to put down the wins... I can think of about 3 genuinely good performances so far. Other than that, asides a few upsides like the arrival of Albrighton (how much you can lay that success at Houlliers door is debatable), it's been pretty universally mediocre at best. I haven't seen much to be enthused about. I'm not that impressed by passing a bit more. Still just my opinion. Others will disagree. Okay but I'll give you three. Man United, Fulham, Tottenham. Two of which, we concede late goals in games we should have won. The other Tottenham, we had enough chances to win the game and also the story of our season, an injury killed us when Heskey on fire at the time, had to come off for who at the time, in dire form, Carew. Results aren't great but performances have been decent, I can't think of a game yet I've watched and thought 'we deserved to lose that'. Under Houllier anyway. Games like Newcastle are performances I'd be worried about. Not today. The reason we lost is because we got done by two set-peices, which isn't surprising when your forced to play a side pretty much all under 6 ft, apart 2/3, I thought Blackburn pretty much strolled it to be honest. OK we had loads of possession and you could even say pressure of sorts. But this was all up to last third - after that I thought blackburn coped pretty easily - Young hit the bar - and couple of long range efforts and that was it. Did someone say we haven't yet equalised under Houllier - Dunno how true that is - but it never looked on today. No we haven't equalized but we've also won games vs Blackpool and Wolves late on...(although conceding to Blackpool fairly late too) Which are better than equalizing! Young header, Downing and Young first half had attempts inside the box well saved by Robinson, as well as Herd header cleared off the foot of the Fonz as well as the long range efforts which was similar to them really. Yet most of their chances came on the break. I don't think they strolled it. Apart from the Pederson free-kick, I don't think Friedel made a save in the first half did he? I mean't after Blackburn took the lead - I didn't really ever think we looked like getting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris_avfc Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 We will finsih 5-8 who else can break the top 8? Sunderland? will be there or thereabouts but you lot are just overeacting or trolling, llow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 We will finsih 5-8 who else can break the top 8? Well last years europa finalists are managed by someone who lots of people think should have been here, so maybe they're in with a shout. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 With regards to us not equalising - it's because we've almost always taken the lead first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaN.I Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Top ten on what i have seen the past few games. Injuries are hopefully causing the bad results otherwise Houllier could find himself in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMFy Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 If we had a goalscorer like Drogba or Torres (on form Torres) we would be in the top three. No goals - no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFC-Prideofbrum Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 If we had a goalscorer like Drogba or Torres (on form Torres) we would be in the top three. No goals - no chance. Don't you mean Carroll or Elmander? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 If we had a goalscorer like Drogba or Torres (on form Torres) we would be in the top three. No goals - no chance. totally agree, we've been waiting for such a player for so many years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legov Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Don't you mean Carroll or Elmander You don't think Carroll might turn into a player of that class in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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