UK Immigration and Population

[sidcow]

Hey @Panto_Villan.

Just to pick up on the point.

How can the UK indigenous population not be falling if the birth rate has been below 2 for a couple of decades now.  And is currently well below 2? 

[Panto_Villan]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

Hey @Panto_Villan.

Just to pick up on the point.

How can the UK indigenous population not be falling if the birth rate has been below 2 for a couple of decades now.  And is currently well below 2? 

It’s a good question and one I’ll be looking at later this evening myself - I’m just going on the ONS data. My hunch is that it takes time for the effect to work through the system.

[Rugeley Villa]

Does anyone think we’ll get to a point in this country where Muslims become the majority? Just read their birthrate is 3.6 per woman and 1.6 national average  . I think if current trends continue it’s a formality . I’ll be long gone but some other won’t . More shagging required I think. 
 

Happy to be corrected about whatever I may have wrong but we surely are looking at being a Muslim country at some point .

[sidcow]

6 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Does anyone think we’ll get to a point in this country where Muslims become the majority? Just read their birthrate is 3.6 per woman and 1.6 national average  . I think if current trends continue it’s a formality . I’ll be long gone but some other won’t . More shagging required I think. 
 

Happy to be corrected about whatever I may have wrong but we surely are looking at being a Muslim country at some point .

Currently 6% of the UK is Muslim.  So at those rates its going to be long after you are dead so I'd stop being so concerned about it if I was you.

In fact it will take so long I don't think religion will probably exist in the way we know it now.

[PaulC]

My guess is people are living longer.

[sidcow]

14 minutes ago, PaulC said:

My guess is people are living longer.

Thanks to the Tories we've finally started to die sooner as well!

Edited August 9 by sidcow

[markavfc40]

8 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Does anyone think we’ll get to a point in this country where Muslims become the majority? Just read their birthrate is 3.6 per woman and 1.6 national average  . I think if current trends continue it’s a formality . I’ll be long gone but some other won’t . More shagging required I think. 
 

Happy to be corrected about whatever I may have wrong but we surely are looking at being a Muslim country at some point .

If it ever happens we'll all be long gone before Muslims become the majority in the UK. It currently stands at 6% of the UK being Muslim (from 2021census). In 2011 that was 4.4%, 2001 2.7% so it has just over doubled in last 20 years. 

If it happened tomorrow though so what. I couldn't give two hoots what religion someone is as long as they aren't trying to impose it on me. 

[Davkaus]

An important consideration when it comes to the growth of Islam in the UK is that over time, the birth rate tends to fall in line, meaning the birth rate is much higher for first generation Muslim immigrants, but second and third generation, they're pretty much in line with the rest of us.

The articles fearmongering about us being a Muslim majority country by 2050 assume a perpetual baby boom, among other flawed assumptions

[Rugeley Villa]

I was going to guess around 2100 but according to this it will be 2195 

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/PRR-12-2018-0034/full/html

Quote

Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years.

 

Edited August 11 by blandy
Extract added

[Rugeley Villa]

1 minute ago, markavfc40 said:

If it ever happens we'll all be long gone before Muslims become the majority in the UK. It currently stands at 6% of the UK being Muslim (from 2021census). In 2011 that was 4.4%, 2001 2.7% so it has just over doubled in last 20 years. 

If it happened tomorrow though so what. I couldn't give two hoots what religion someone is as long as they aren't trying to impose it on me. 

It would start being imposed though surely? That’s the nature of the beast. 

[MCU]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Currently 6% of the UK is Muslim.  So at those rates its going to be long after you are dead so I'd stop being so concerned about it if I was you.

In fact it will take so long I don't think religion will probably exist in the way we know it now.

Just to add to this @Rugeley Villa, 82% of people in England and Wales are white. Trust me, I've had to debunk some of the shite I've seen online the last few days myself - see below.

1 minute ago, markavfc40 said:

If it ever happens we'll all be long gone before Muslims become the majority in the UK. It currently stands at 6% of the UK being Muslim (from 2021census). In 2011 that was 4.4%, 2001 2.7% so it has just over doubled in last 20 years. 

If it happened tomorrow though so what. I couldn't give two hoots what religion someone is as long as they aren't trying to impose it on me.

However, despite how much of dick head I might have come across the past few days, it really boils down to this.

[Davkaus]

1 minute ago, markavfc40 said:

 

If it happened tomorrow though so what. I couldn't give two hoots what religion someone is as long as they aren't trying to impose it on me. 

I think the implied fear is that if we ever ticked over to 50.1% they instantly implement Sharia law across the UK, ignoring that many millions of them will be people who moved here for a reason.

I think if it were a theoretical likelihood we'd imminently be a majority Muslim country there would be very real concerns given the approval ratings for LGBT, the views on women's rights, etc, and what's particularly problematic is that these views seem to become more in line with traditional Islam as the generations pass among families. Frankly, that's something that needs some work even acknowledging that they'll be a minority within the population for a very long time.

[Rugeley Villa]

4 minutes ago, MCU said:

Just to add to this @Rugeley Villa, 82% of people in England and Wales are white. Trust me, I've had to debunk some of the shite I've seen online the last few days myself - see below.

However, despite how much of dick head I might have come across the past few days, it really boils down to this.

Don’t underestimate your own concerns. I’ve had to learn on here. Years ago I wanted all Muslims gone off the face of the earth I just thought the world would be so much better without them. I had a genuine fear that Europe was being taken over by Islam. Those fears have dampened down a lot but it’s still a concern for me and if anyone thinks a Muslim majority uk would be just fine then think again. I’m not daft enough to think heads would start rolling down the streets and I think we’d be moderate compared to some but there would a few changes and not all of them  positive. I’d be gone , my kids will be gone and their kids will be gone but it’s just a thought I’ve put out there. I’m hoping not to get shot down in flames but it’s there . 

[Xann]

There's most likely going to be more pressing concerns than which sky fairy you support muuuuuuuch sooner than 2100.

 

 

[Rugeley Villa]

Just now, Xann said:

There's most likely going to be more pressing concerns than which sky fairy you support muuuuuuuch sooner than 2100.

 

 

Global warming I agree . That in itself will cause untold migration. 

[magnkarl]

The religion will likely be gone by the time this is an issue.

Whoever's left will be trying to survive on the few scraps of food they can grow without it getting killed by resistant mold and pollution.

We're #¤%# if we don't change our habits, and it isn't which fairy in the sky you believe in which will ¤#%# us. Bird and insect populations are down 80-90%. Species are dying out at a pace not seen since a meteor killed everything and we're cutting down the only thing that could save us (Rain forests).

Edited August 9 by magnkarl

[sidcow]

A lot of these assumptions also assume an unbroken line of devout religion. 

I know a lot of Muslims who are completely lapsed.. I know a lot of Sikhs who don't wear turban at all. 

Terry Pratchett would laugh at this conversation eh @Chindie. It's far more likely a lot of current people who describe themselves as Muslim or Sikh or Hindu will see their ancestors absorbed into a new UK multi culture.

Anyone on here who is of long term British White ancestry would have had ancestors going to all sorts of churches 50 to 200 years ago. Now 40% of the population claim no religion. 

Even the blood and thunder rule with an iron rod Presbyterians are in decline. 

They will just be absorbed into a generic UK culture. 

[gwi1890]

22 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Thanks to the Tories we've finally started to die sooner as well!

Very true but unfortunately we will starve under labour people have idea how scarce food will become with the sanctions and restrictions they’ve instilled on the agriculture and fishing industry. One government destroys our health sector the other destroys our ability to produce food.

[Rugeley Villa]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

The religion will likely be gone by the time this is an issue.

Whoever's left will be trying to survive on the few scraps of food they can grow without it getting killed by resistant mould and pollution.

We're #¤%# if we don't change our habits, and it isn't which fairy in the sky you believe in which will ¤#%# us.

It’s survived how long what makes you think another 200 years will erase it . Also as the world goes into turmoil which is very likely as I don’t see us changing enough to shift the planet into safety I think more people may turn to god .

[sharkyvilla]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

A lot of these assumptions also assume an unbroken line of devout religion. 

I know a lot of Muslims who are completely lapsed.. I know a lot of Sikhs who don't wear turban at all. 

Terry Pratchett would laugh at this conversation eh @Chindie. It's far more likely a lot of current people who describe themselves as Muslim or Sikh or Hindu will see their ancestors absorbed into a new UK multi culture.

Anyone on here who is of long term British White ancestry would have had ancestors going to all sorts of churches 50 to 200 years ago. Now 40% of the population claim no religion. 

Even the blood and thunder rule with an iron rod Presbyterians are in decline. 

They will just be absorbed into a generic UK culture. 

Exactly, I know a fair few lads from Muslim families in their 20s and 30s and they seem no different to me really.  I suspect all religions will go the way of Christianity over here and just fizzle out.