bickster Posted July 4 Moderator Share Posted July 4 7 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: They can play the blame game for the first term on the economy , the only thing stopping them getting a second term will be if Starmer is found snorting cocaine of a hookers arse .. and even then I think he’d still get reelected , there isn’t any current Tory in the ranks that is going to galvanise them Yep, agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, MCU said: How accurate are these exit polls usually? Trying to find an exit poll v actual result example from previous years but not having any luck https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-6686d73e8f08b8c654ee5219#block-6686d73e8f08b8c654ee5219 Quote 2005 – accurate: It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which was correct. 2010 – accurate: It said the Conservatives would be 19 seats short of a majority, and they were. 2015 – out by 22: It said the Conservatives would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12. 2017 – out by 4: It said the Conservatives would be 12 seats short of a majority, but they were eight seats short. 2019 – out by 6: It forecast a Tory majority of 86, but it was 80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 4 Moderator Share Posted July 4 https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180 Quote Exit poll: What is the forecast election result in my constituency? SKY have this ....and my Constituency is STILL a 64% chance of a Conservative hold. Worst Christmas ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, MCU said: How accurate are these exit polls usually? Trying to find an exit poll v actual result example from previous years but not having any luck You can expect it to be very accurate. The actual results will only differ marginally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 The fact Sutton could go red is a stunning change. One of the bluest seats for ages! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icouldtelltheworld Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 6 minutes ago, Chindie said: Sutton going red I'll believe it when I see it, sometime around 4am presumably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pongo Waring Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 WOW Sutton is going Labour. How about Lichfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 6 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: FFS Horsham staying blue. Lib Dems had a 14 point lead yesterday according to Yougov, it must have been way off. If it's a very narrow victory I'll feel like a bit of a tit for voting Labour. Most of the polls were pretty tight; I think most actually had the Tories ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted July 4 VT Supporter Share Posted July 4 Urgh the Wrekin constituency seemingly staying Tory based on that link, about 85% chance. It’s what I felt would happen but I had hoped otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 4 Moderator Share Posted July 4 4 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Aldridge and Brownhills staying blue too I had a vague hope we’d go red Me too. I did my bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, Pongo Waring said: WOW Sutton is going Labour. How about Lichfield? 96% chance of staying blue according to Sky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 1 minute ago, Pongo Waring said: WOW Sutton is going Labour. How about Lichfield? Blue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Hard Man Steve Baker basically launching his leadership bid despite losing his seat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 2 hours ago, El Zen said: Well, no, but openly admitting that there should be a ruling class is something you’re unlikely to hear from even the most conservative of upper class Conservatives. Although wrong and deceitful, they’ll usually hide it behind some rehearsed rhetoric that what’s good for them is good for everyone, baking a bigger cake for everyone to share and trickle down economics, all that crap. Or at a stretch, they might say that social inequality is fair because the rich work harder, and hard work should be rewarded. Again, it’s deluded crap, but at least there’s an attempt to pretend to be for equal opportunity. To say there should be a ruling class is to say some people are just better by birth, and thus deserving of privilege. To me, that’s completely absurd, and especially shocking coming from someone who isn’t himself a member of the reality-ignorant elite. You’re essentially saying you yourself don’t deserve the same opportunities in life as everybody else, that you are worth less by birth alone. Why would anyone say that? It is a very foreign view to someone from Scandinavia or Australia but I have heard it said by conservatives in the UK who are not themselves part of that ‘ruling class’. I think part of it is just down to conservative tradition but the logic given to me when I have questioned the thinking is that people born to a ruling class, like the way the House of Lords used to be, are unburdened by the whims of politics or by petty social trends, instead they are able to make decisions based on a much longer term view of the country. They are prepared for the role from birth and do not need to play populist politics to be elected so have a wider perspective not available to a typical party politician looking to win a 4 year term. The principle of being born to rule feels viscerally wrong to me but that’s the logic I’ve come across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted July 4 VT Supporter Share Posted July 4 (edited) 1 minute ago, Davkaus said: Hard Man Steve Baker basically launching his leadership bid despite losing his seat. tbf He's handling it quite well. Edited July 4 by mjmooney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaglint Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 10 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: They can play the blame game for the first term on the economy , the only thing stopping them getting a second term will be if Starmer is found snorting cocaine of a hookers arse .. and even then I think he’d still get reelected , there isn’t any current Tory in the ranks that is going to galvanise them Remember them saying the same about the Tories at the last election. No possible way for Labour to win next election etc, but you know “events” and Boris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted July 4 VT Supporter Share Posted July 4 both bournemouth constituencies going red. i've lived in a tory stronghold far too long so that's a nice change upskirting fan chris chope keeps christchurch of course...i wondered if that would turn reform to be honest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 I’m hoping the predicted narrow “hold” by conservative in Tamworth is skewed by the fact they assume (incorrectly) it’s blue already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lichfield Dean Posted July 4 VT Supporter Share Posted July 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarryOnVilla Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Sebastian Coe, get rekt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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