one_ian_taylor Posted July 3 VT Supporter Share Posted July 3 7 minutes ago, bickster said: Quite likely up against the regions Metro Mayor That's my in-laws constituency and given that my mother-in-law (very bookish and academic) has previously talked about waiting outside his church to kneecap him, I'm pretty sure she will be voting any which way possible to get him out. My father-in-law is an old school one nation Tory, but he won't be voting for them this time (and I don't think has since Brexit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 3 VT Supporter Share Posted July 3 2 hours ago, one_ian_taylor said: Conspiracy theories is spot on. For people with that mindset, the response to being wrong is not to examine why they might have been wrong, but to find small snippets to support a narrative of betrayal or foul play. We've all probably done it at some point ("ref was biased" etc), and it was evident to some extent of some remainers to the referendum, but it seems particularly prevalent and poisonous amongst the far right today (and after WWI) And Facebook/Twitter with their helpful algorithms will be sure to point them in the direction they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mjmooney Posted July 3 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted July 3 Got this from a mate with Labour-connected family. Quote Shona’s guide to Election Night 2024 In 1997, six Cabinet ministers lost their seats. In this election, that number will be doubled or trebled. Will you wait up for Hunt and Mordaunt? Are the Tories heading for a disaster or catastrophe? Here’s my quick guide to what to watch out for. 10pm At the final Big Ben bong sounds, the Exit Polls are announced. After this will be the traditional race between Newcastle City Council and Sunderland City Council to be the first to announce a result. If the pattern of 2019 is repeated, most of the early results will be in the North East. 11.30pm Blyth and Ashington 11.45pm Houghton and Sunderland South Midnight onwards 12.15am Basildon and Billericay – Tory chairman and chicken runner from his NE marginal, Richard Holden, is predicted to lose a Tory majority of 20,749. Swindon South – Justice secretary, Robert Buckland defending a 5,650 majority is expected to be a gonner. 12.30am Broxbourne and Hertfordshire – a Tory seat since 1983 with a majority of 19,192 likely to be declared. Will give us a good indication of what is happening in the Home Counties. Keep an eye out for Barnsley which Reform are targeting. Anything less than 25 per cent of the vote for Reform here means they are not doing so well. 1am First Scottish seats come in. If the SNP hold on to half their seats, that will be a good result for them. East Kilbride and Strathaven Hamilton and Clyde Valler Rutherglen All held by the SNP. These results give is an idea if Labour is going to do well or very well in Scotland. 2am Now we are motoring with about 60 results announced in the following hour. 2am Kemi Badenoch’s result. She is expected to win as she is on 35 per cent and Labour are on 27 per cent. If the margin is smaller, then the Tories are in huge trouble rather than big trouble. 3am to 4am This is the busiest time with about 250 results announced. 3am Islington North. Will Corbynism finally be laid to rest? 3.15am Chingford and Woodford Green is one to watch out for. 3.15am The Labour-Green battle in Bristol Central. Will Thangam Debonaire hold off the Green onslaught? It’s on a knife edge. 3.30am Jeremy Hunt’s seat of Godalming and Ash will be declared. The Chancellor isa defending a notional majority of 10,720. The Lib Dems are predicted to win easily. Cameron’s former seat of Whitney could be a Labour gain. Grant Shapps is defending a majority of 10,773. Labour needs a swing of 10.4 per cent to take out Shapps. He is another Cabinet minister predicted to lose. Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North has a majority of 15,780. Labour predicted to take out the sword bearer. We need a swing of 17.2 per cent. Welsh Secretary, David TC Davies in Monmouthshire could be the next cabinet minister to be defeated. 4am We should now know which party has a majority – the magic number is 326 seats. The result in Clacton is likely to come in around this time. Farage is predicted to win. 4.15am Starmer’s declaration 4.30am Ashfield. Serial ship jumper, Lee Anderson, will find out if his latest flag of convenience saves his skin. 5.30am The 11th safest Tory seat will be declared – held by Liz Truss. It’s tight. Labour are on 31 per cent, the Tories on 32 per cent and Reform on about 20 per cent. For Labour to take out Truss, a swing of 25 per cent is required. This will really be the Portillo moment of the election. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Its going to bw a humiliating night for the tories. For the next 12 years they need to reflect clear all the scum out and rebuild like labour has. It took them 12 years and thats probably how long until they will be back in power Lets see what starmers government can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 3 VT Supporter Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: Handy sheet to cross them off. You leave Trott out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 3 Moderator Share Posted July 3 7 minutes ago, sidcow said: You leave Trott out of this One of the very few (now) seats that all the pollsters agree will remain Tory. We’ll unfortunately still have a case of the Trotts come Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 3 Moderator Share Posted July 3 Therese Coffey, now there’s another one I’ll gladly see finished Suffolk Coastal is definitely on my watch list 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 3 VT Supporter Share Posted July 3 9 minutes ago, bickster said: One of the very few (now) seats that all the pollsters agree will remain Tory. We’ll unfortunately still have a case of the Trotts come Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, one_ian_taylor said: That's my in-laws constituency and given that my mother-in-law (very bookish and academic) has previously talked about waiting outside his church to kneecap him, I'm pretty sure she will be voting any which way possible to get him out. My father-in-law is an old school one nation Tory, but he won't be voting for them this time (and I don't think has since Brexit) I'm one over from there, and it's a rare occasion of the new boundaries screwing a Tory MP. Before it was just rural towns and villages - Keynsham, Chew, Paulton, Saltford etc. Proper Zomerzet yokel country. But now that Hanham to the north has been added it's basically chucking nearly 15,000 potential voters from Bristol into his pot. Without Hanham it probably would have been a three-way marginal, adding it to the party means that the Lib Dems have known to stay away from it and Dan Norris should romp home. Edited July 3 by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
one_ian_taylor Posted July 3 VT Supporter Share Posted July 3 7 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I'm one over from there, and it's a rare occasion of the new boundaries screwing a Tory MP. Before it was just rural towns and villages - Keynsham, Chew, Paulton, Saltford etc. Proper Zomerzet yokel country. But now that Hanham to the north has been added it's basically chucking nearly 15,000 potential voters from Bristol into his pot. Without Hanham it probably would have been a three-way marginal, adding it to the party means that the Lib Dems have known to stay away from it and Dan Norris should romp home. I think Sunak's constituency is possibly another (now Richmond and Northallerton), and coincidentally another where I have family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post markavfc40 Posted July 3 Popular Post Share Posted July 3 The Daily Star front page tomorrow has it spot on. https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/downbeat-tories-throw-towel-party-33163676 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 I’m really hoping for Rees-Mogg. The fact he’s still around after he cooked up that illegal proroguation of parliament is a national disgrace. Frankly what he did was treasonous and I wouldn’t have minded if we brought back the tyburn tree for that filth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Somehow John Curtice is in the exact same job (aside from talking about elections on the television) as he was in 1997 and appears to be the exact same age as he was then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 3 Moderator Share Posted July 3 Erm… Mark French-name there’s another one I'll celebrate wildly. Celebrity endorsements are bad enough but “I've known Mark for a period of time” is hardly a great intro… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 God, tomorrow night is going to be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Lib Dems now 14 points ahead in the Yougov poll here from a 21,000 Tory majority in 2019. The Labour share in the poll has halved in the last few weeks so looks like a big tactical vote going on. Reform still on 14% despite the candidate being deselected for racism, I just don't understand some people but I guess there will always be dickheads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Final leaflet count for me in a red wall seat held by a Tory is 7 labour, 2 lib dems, 1 reform, 0 from the incumbent. They've just given up on one term Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted July 3 VT Supporter Share Posted July 3 If you hadn't looked at the news you literally wouldn't know there was an election in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
one_ian_taylor Posted July 4 VT Supporter Share Posted July 4 2 hours ago, markavfc40 said: The Daily Star front page tomorrow has it spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 I could hide beneath the wings of the bluebird as she sings. The 5.00am alarm would never ring. But it rings and I rise, wipe the sleep out of my eyes My shaving razor's cold and it stings. 5.00am- Pre-match breakfast followed by travel to the Polling Station for 6.00am set up and 7.00am kick off. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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