chrisp65 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 It’s far more widespread than the tory demographic, it’s the number of people voting, full stop. The tories weren’t totally kicked out of Wales because of a resurgent Labour vote. The number of Labour votes is actually down 25% over the last 2 elections. This is why we are able to see reactionary chancers like reform make such a big impact. They have a core demographic and a way with words for the politically illiterate, whilst others have a shrinking number of people interested in them because the offer is so tepid. Don’t be fooled by the shallowest of record breaking victories, this is not a guarantee of 15 years of stability. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) TBH I feel like we should see what Labour can achieve with a colossal majority rather than worrying too much about what happens five years from now. If a week is a long time in politics, there’s a very long time until the next election. Edited July 7 by Panto_Villan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 People have been critical of our turnouts, but the French are expecting a turnout of just under 60% and it'll be their best for 50 years. Under 40% last time round! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viivvaa66 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 2 hours ago, Davkaus said: People have been critical of our turnouts, but the French are expecting a turnout of just under 60% and it'll be their best for 50 years. Under 40% last time round! Nothing wrong here, since there is at least somebody worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 12 hours ago, viivvaa66 said: Nothing wrong here, since there is at least somebody worse. We are amongst the best in the world. https://www.worlddata.info/dictatorships.php Quote Dictatorshipships Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 (edited) On 07/07/2024 at 00:59, bickster said: 1. Even if you count all the seats where Reform allowed in Labour over the Tories because you add the Tory and Reform vote yardda yadda. Labour would still have won 2. The LibDems lost more votes through tactical voting than Labour gained in the opposite direction 3. I've been talking about the Tory demographic timebomb for ages, it's real, once the numbers have been crunched I reckon the crossover point is now around or over 70 years old. We are now dealing with pensioners that were kids under Thatcher, they've never voted Tory in big numbers. The Tory Party is dying and it cannot survive. Please make the next leader a complete nutter to speed the inevitable process up 4. The rise in the Green vote is hilarious tbh, an alliance of disaffected Tory NIMBYs and Corbynista cranks. 2 of the 3 gains were Tory seats and the other in Bristol was as much down to boundary changes in the Greens favour as it was Debonnaire's horrendous personanality The North Herefordhire one was almost certainly down to the pollution in the Wye, largely down to the large chicken farms that have been built and supported by the former Conservative MP and the resulting phosphate run off causing huge alga blooms in the river. That was a massive issue and mobilised the vote. The greens until last year were also in a wider coalition running the council until they lost control back to the tories due to the scrapping of the Hereford bypass. I think they have a more sustainable base than Reform as they have been building up councillors across the country for quite a few years now. I would say that turnout was lower because everyone knew what the overall result would be due to the constant polling, and some conservative voters didn't vote in protest this time. Edited July 8 by The Fun Factory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Voting should be considered the normal thing that we all do. If you have children/grandchildren please take them with you when you vote and explain what's happening. It's a small thing that many of us could do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 8 Moderator Share Posted July 8 45 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: I would say that turnout was lower because everyone knew what the overall result would be due to the constant polling, and some conservative voters didn't vote in protest this time. Broadly agree but would also add that as well as the polls, the Tories spent weeks telling everyone that Labour were going to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 8 Moderator Share Posted July 8 16 hours ago, Davkaus said: People have been critical of our turnouts, but the French are expecting a turnout of just under 60% and it'll be their best for 50 years. Under 40% last time round! One thing that popped into my head last night is that, and I’ve no idea what the results say, but it’s how many seats Labour won where the LDs came second, and where the LDs came first and Labour second. I watched hours of coverage on the night (slightly refreshed) and don’t think there were many at all. So it’s like they each didn’t try in the other one’s main targets and perhaps quite a lot of their voters stayed at home and quite a lot voted tactically, but that this effect will have suppressed turnout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 46 minutes ago, bickster said: Broadly agree but would also add that as well as the polls, the Tories spent weeks telling everyone that Labour were going to win Yes in hindsight that was a bit of a wacky tactic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 46 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Yes in hindsight that was a bit of a wacky tactic. I'm not surprised they wanted to show off by telling everyone, it's the first thing they've got right for years 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 8 Moderator Share Posted July 8 1 hour ago, blandy said: One thing that popped into my head last night is that, and I’ve no idea what the results say, but it’s how many seats Labour won where the LDs came second, and where the LDs came first and Labour second. I watched hours of coverage on the night (slightly refreshed) and don’t think there were many at all. So it’s like they each didn’t try in the other one’s main targets and perhaps quite a lot of their voters stayed at home and quite a lot voted tactically, but that this effect will have suppressed turnout. Sheffield Hallam is about the only one where they competed off the top of my head. There may be a few others but not many at all. Similar happened in 1997 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 45 minutes ago, bickster said: Sheffield Hallam is about the only one where they competed off the top of my head. There may be a few others but not many at all. Similar happened in 1997 too That used to be Clegg's consistency until everyone stopped agreeing with Nick on tuition fees and booted him out. His Labour replacement, Jared O'Mara was found guilty guilty of six counts of fraud by false representation and was sentenced to four years in prison last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 8 Moderator Share Posted July 8 16 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: That used to be Clegg's consistency until everyone stopped agreeing with Nick on tuition fees and booted him out. His Labour replacement, Jared O'Mara was found guilty guilty of six counts of fraud by false representation and was sentenced to four years in prison last year. Yep. O'Mara also refused to resign and was clearly mentally ill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 People just don't care, look how few people voted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 56 minutes ago, ml1dch said: People just don't care, look how few people voted... if we take that figure at face value if we ignore the ‘May’ and we don’t wait on the ONS stats which don’t come out until Friday and round it up, it’s 1% of the electorate. in 2024 turnout was 59.9% in 2019 turnout was 67.3% in 2017 turnout was 68.8% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 In principle, I oppose voter ID and think it was a blatant attempt at gerrymandering. In practice, the polling card told us about it, I saw billboards, most if not all of the party flyers mentioned it, it was constantly mentioned on TV and radio. What are people playing at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 7 hours ago, chrisp65 said: if we take that figure at face value if we ignore the ‘May’ and we don’t wait on the ONS stats which don’t come out until Friday and round it up, it’s 1% of the electorate. in 2024 turnout was 59.9% in 2019 turnout was 67.3% in 2017 turnout was 68.8% Presumably that 1% of the electorate captured there are those who didn’t have ID but turned up and tried to vote anyway? I can’t see how it would include people to didn’t have ID and knew it would not be possible to vote on the day so never bothered even trying? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted July 9 VT Supporter Share Posted July 9 The election night coverage needed more of this - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: Presumably that 1% of the electorate captured there are those who didn’t have ID but turned up and tried to vote anyway? I can’t see how it would include people to didn’t have ID and knew it would not be possible to vote on the day so never bothered even trying? Yep, no idea, I was taking something from the Telegraph at face value and rounding up generously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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