General Election Pre-Thread (6 of 6)

[ml1dch]

Tory HQ started drawing up redundancy plans

 

[one_ian_taylor]

Ed Davey has been fighting the Tories all his life apparently (10 o'clock news). Presumably that includes his time as a minister in a Tory led government. 

[bickster]

17 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Last poll I saw had all 3 parties between 27 and 31%.  Labour and Lib Dem have also traded off second place (in what was a safe Tory seat) over the last two elections.

 

There are boundary changes, it’s a new seat, the bits that were added were small villages (definitely prime LibDem / Tory)

Can you find the polls? Were they constituency specific polls?

A lot of the MRP polls are pushing out really odd constituency level predictions. I’m not really convinced the MRP methods have the right modelling this time around, especially when extrapolated to specific constituencies. There are previously 60% SNP constituencies in Scotland that MRPs have down as Labour gains and quite frankly, there’s no freakin’ way

Oh and as a complete aside, Scotland's modelling is buggered across the board as all the polling companies are having to use the 2011 census data as 2021 wasn’t available to them

Another note about MRP polls, they are consistently seeming to overstate the Tory share of vote compared to the normal polling. Most of the MRPs seem to have a lot wrong this time as does Electoral Calculus (which was the most accurate in 2019)

[bickster]

I think this just about sums up my feelings, I really do want them to be third. If my vote mattered to get rid of a Tory, I'd be voting tactically. (much more of the reasoning in a very long tweet)

 

[Straggler]

26 minutes ago, bickster said:

I think this just about sums up my feelings, I really do want them to be third. If my vote mattered to get rid of a Tory, I'd be voting tactically. (much more of the reasoning in a very long tweet)

 

Yeah I agree, I was saying something similar a few pages back. Moving the Overton window away from the extremes and scary cultist behaviour and back to normal evidence based decision making for a term would be a huge benefit to the country. My only concern is the rise of reform. If they somehow become the second biggest party the standard of debate goes back into the toilet.

[Davkaus]

Reform having daylight shining on the nutters they get into parliament will be interesting.

I wonder how many will survive a term

[limpid]

12 hours ago, Straggler said:

How is anything about covid in the tories favour? 

Boris let the bodies pile high

PPE contract corruption 

Opening the schools for a day before shutting them again.

Downing street parties 

Even furlough was ballsed up. You may recall they stopped furlough for a bit before restarting it again. Do you know how many people who lost their jobs and businesses closed as they dithered? I know my wife was laid off in that gap like many others and the place she worked is gone still. They even got the thing they got right wrong.

And when they restarted furlough all those people that got laid off in the gap got nothing from that point onwards. 

Also, they removed the funding for the pandemic preparedness facilities that was in place in case a pandemic ever happened.

[bickster]

28 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Reform having daylight shining on the nutters they get into parliament will be interesting.

I wonder how many will survive a term

Its something I've been pondering since their surge happened

There have only been three people Reform have been putting forward for anything. The one person with parliamentary experience has been absolutely missing in all of this.

Anderson, I get he's really got a battle on his hands to retain his seat but he's been absolutely nowhere. It's mostly Farage with a smattering of Tice and Habib

Reform really is a personality cult (sic)

Even if they do as well as some of the polls are predicting (they won't), they are still likely to be the 5th party (outside chance of being 4th - if the SNP really do collapse)

Cut the head off the snake and they are done.

(also see my previous posts on why the Reform / Tory merger is highly unlikely)

[Stevo985]

13 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

The thing is mate you cant see covid wasnt as big if not worse. 

This would be a valid point, if it wasn't for the mountains and mountains of evidence that the tories handled covid about as badly as is humanly possible. Even worse than the vast majority of people could have ever feared.

Late lockdowns, shite economy, law breaking, billions and billions wasted by giving it to their mates, thousands and thousands of people needlessly dead.

 

It's not even remotely comparable to the financial crisis. Could the tories have handled the financial crisis better than Labour? Possibly. I genuinely don't know. I actually voted Tory in that election (to my huge regret) for that very reason.
But I bet the differences in how they handled it would have been very small. Probably negligible.

The evidence that Labour, or any government, would have handled covid better is absolutely enormous.

Edited Friday at 08:09 by Stevo985

[chrisp65]

In the financial crisis, the U.K. nationalised a bank that was one of the biggest bank’s on the planet with fingers in everyone’s mortgage and every multinational head office. It wasn’t as easy to see as field hospitals it was spreadsheet stuff.

people’s jobs were saved by furlough, and the company you worked for and your house were saved by nationalisation in the crash.

Selling the gold would be a stronger criticism of the last labour government. Or the illegal war that still sends us folk in small boats to this day.

 

[Wainy316]

14 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

actually voted Tory in that election 

I knew it!

[Wainy316]

11 hours ago, bickster said:

There are boundary changes, it’s a new seat, the bits that were added were small villages (definitely prime LibDem / Tory)

Can you find the polls? Were they constituency specific polls?

A lot of the MRP polls are pushing out really odd constituency level predictions. I’m not really convinced the MRP methods have the right modelling this time around, especially when extrapolated to specific constituencies. There are previously 60% SNP constituencies in Scotland that MRPs have down as Labour gains and quite frankly, there’s no freakin’ way

Oh and as a complete aside, Scotland's modelling is buggered across the board as all the polling companies are having to use the 2011 census data as 2021 wasn’t available to them

Another note about MRP polls, they are consistently seeming to overstate the Tory share of vote compared to the normal polling. Most of the MRPs seem to have a lot wrong this time as does Electoral Calculus (which was the most accurate in 2019)

Survation on the Get Voting website.

It does have Labour on a higher share but says to tactically vote Lib Dem.  I think I'm leaning towards the Lib Dems anyway, they do seem popular round here and he definitely performed best at the hustings.

 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Wainy316 said:

Survation on the Get Voting website.

Yep, that isn't a poll in the constituency. That's an MRP nationwide poll projected to represent that constituency. The projections are getting a lot wrong at the local level partly because there's no history in most of seats because of the boundary changes and as I mentioned earlier, Scotland has demographics that are way out of date.

Get Voting and Stop the Tories will acknowledge this and that is why some of their recommendations don't make sense when you look at the MRP projections for each seat but in making their recommendations they take other factors into account. If you look just below that screenshot it says " Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat."

Then further up it says why it has gone with the LibDems...

Quote

Why vote Lib Dem in Didcot And Wantage?
Didcot and Wantage is a a traditionally Conservative voting area but the Liberal Democrats have had recent local election success and neither the Greens nor Labour appear to be targeting the seat. If those parties’ voters lend their support to the Liberal Democrats in Didcot and Wantage at this election, they will be decisive in stopping the Conservatives from holding the seat.

 

[bickster]

@Wainy316 The bit about Labour not targeting the seat is VERY important. That is outright telling you they themselves don't think they can win it and they think they can win a huge amount of seats this time

Similar happened in 1997 when Tactical Voting was last at its peak. Labour will never say don't vote for us, it would be electoral suicide but there are plenty of clues as to what to do if you do want to vote the Tories out 

If Labour aren't targeting a seat, it really does mean that privately they think they have very little chance of winning and putting resources into that seat are a waste of money

[Wainy316]

Incidentally just had a Labour leaflet through the door this second.

Lib Dems have absolutely inundated us though.  The candidate even made a quip in support for PR that it would mean less need for tactical voting and thus less Liberal Democrat leaflets.

[The Fun Factory]

Been far too many debates on tv this campaign as you are technically voting for you MP and not the leader. It is only since 2010 that debates were televised and now they dominate the entire campaign. I am not sure what the impact is anyway on the actual vote- I guess we may see that or not in the US election with Biden tanking so badly.

Still think some of the more outlandish polls are slightly out-I refuse to believe the Torys will get less than 100 seats. The way things have gone if they get close to 150 seats they will spin that as a 'good' night. Lib Dems will get between 40 to 50, Labour over 400.

I also think turnout will be lower than people think, I really don't think Starmer has got people running to the polls. In fact he has played the boring tag quite well really after the utter chaos of recent years. Polls were up in the last few elections but that was because of Brexit, an issue that shall not be discussed by anyone this time round.

In 97 the landslide was more down to the tories not coming out and voting and I think it will be similar on Thursday, plus some switching to Reform (which I again think will get less than the polls say).

Edited Friday at 09:45 by The Fun Factory

[tonyh29]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

If my vote mattered to get rid of a Tory, I'd be voting tactically.

I might have to actually go out and vote to make sure we keep the labour MP out , it needs a 30% swing to see my Tory MP lose his seat , but with the projected Reform share of the vote the latest projections show it as a 3 way fight with the Libs , Labour and Tories  ... In terms of influencing the outcome , my vote has never mattered in any previous election , hence I never bother   ... this time around it actually might matter  

Weybridge potentially having a labour MP that's how bad things have got for the Tories  

 

 

 

 

[The Fun Factory]

Like London buses, 3 election leaflets have all arrived at once. One from Labour, one from the Greens, and one from Reform which I had to dispose off using gloves.  Previoulsy had an independent one as well.

Yet to receive from the Tories and it is usually a safe seat, So either they are lazy or given up.

[chrisp65]

6 days to go and suddenly, the fields around town have filled with tory placards.

I don’t know if polling suggests its close or they’ve just managed to cash in a bet early, but yeah, 6 days to go and the tory pops up in the Vale

[bickster]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

6 days to go and suddenly, the fields around town have filled with tory placards.

I don’t know if polling suggests its close or they’ve just managed to cash in a bet early, but yeah, 6 days to go and the tory pops up in the Vale

Is the sitting MP standing again? I realise it's hard to tell