General Election Pre-Thread (6 of 6)

[villan95]

8 minutes ago, bickster said:

I’m not convinced Survation are going to be the pollster closest to the final result but that’s a difference of 3 between LibDems and Tory which could bring the Alliance Party into play

FWIW I think they have it a bit effed up

Cant see Reform getting 7

Can see both Green and PC getting 3/4

Cant see SNP getting only 10

Also think LibDem could be higher (there’s a few SW seats they don’t seem to be fancied in that they might actually win) same for places on the Thames corridor like Whitney

I think Labour are inflated and Tory similarly deflated compared to reality

Just doesn’t pass the sniff test for me.

 

 

To be fair Survation were the only ones to correctly predict 2017 being a hung parliament if I remember correctly. Their 2019 poll also proved accurate.

[sidcow]

3 hours ago, Jon said:

Historically he's not wrong.  The tories have traditionally been the party of the landowners, so there'll be a lot of history behind that vote.  

But yeah, I guess he's not got himself fully clued up as to recent political goings on / the historical tory bond is hard to shake.  

I keep telling Mrs Sidcow. Whatever you thought the Tories were. They just aren't that anymore. 

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

The polling that has been done regarding Tory Attack Ads and Supermajority bollocks suggests it actually pushes more people to vote Labour

It's a great reminder about what's been going on under the Tories. 

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, delboy54 said:

Is it me?, at the start of the video it appears that the lights dont work implicating that there is no power. Yet the kettle works and the radio.

Mind you the radio could be powered by batteries........never seen a battery powered kettle though.....

Almost like it wasn't well thought out which isn't like The Tories

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, one_ian_taylor said:

You grossly underestimate the pig.

That'll do. 

[villan95]

[Mark Albrighton]

In terms of turn out, I think a lot of moderate tories probably won’t vote at all.

However I think that will be offset to an extent by a reasonable amount of people who otherwise may not have voted but have also been waiting patiently to give them a bit of a kicking.

[bickster]

20 minutes ago, villan95 said:

To be fair Survation were the only ones to correctly predict 2017 being a hung parliament if I remember correctly. Their 2019 poll also proved accurate.

Electoral Calculus was the closest prediction in 2019, I think EC is way off this time too

I just don’t see which seats Reform can gain above 4 and even two of those are outside punts

I also don’t see the SNP collapsing to that extent and it’s also worth noting that Scottish polling this time by all pollsters is based on the 2011 census data as the 2021 census data isn’t yet available so that may reduce their ability to predict north of the border.

I genuinely hope the Tories are even lower than this prediction, I just can’t see it though. I’d be delighted if the LibDems were in opposition

[villan95]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

Electoral Calculus was the closest prediction in 2019, I think EC is way off this time too

I just don’t see which seats Reform can gain above 4 and even two of those are outside punts

I also don’t see the SNP collapsing to that extent and it’s also worth noting that Scottish polling this time by all pollsters is based on the 2011 census data as the 2021 census data isn’t yet available so that may reduce their ability to predict north of the border.

I genuinely hope the Tories are even lower than this prediction, I just can’t see it though. I’d be delighted if the LibDems were in opposition

Yeah Lib Dems as opposition and Tories in 3rd would be nice. Reform getting as few seats as possible too, unfortunately they seem nailed on for a couple at least.

[markavfc40]

If these Tory seat predictions are correct you're going to have Blues fans who can count the number of them on two hands and one foot.

Edited Tuesday at 19:14 by markavfc40

[villan95]

Just now, markavfc40 said:

If these Tory seat predictions are correct you're going have Blues fans who can count the number of them on two hands and one foot.

So still too many then..

[Davkaus]

I think it's quite telling that the major tory attack over the last day has cut through so little there's not been a single post on their attacks on Starmer's attempts to protect a bit of family time - and I'm seeing the same elsewhere.

It's meant to be the big story, but nobody cares. They've got nothing, nobody gives a shit about the desperate shit they're chucking at the wall at this point. It's barely worth even taking the piss.

Edited Tuesday at 19:20 by Davkaus

[blandy]

29 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

In terms of turn out, I think a lot of moderate tories probably won’t vote at all.

I’m no wiser, but think the opposite. I think a lot of them will.

[Mark Albrighton]

Wasn’t aware of the Friday evening family time thing, which probably tells me all I need to know about the success of that mud slinging.

I’m sure the few people who are trying to drum up interest in the notion of the PM putting aside some time every week for family were equally aghast at Johnson’s attempt at having more holidays than Judith Chalmers.

[chrisp65]

They are just in panic talk shit mode. Their attack is so obviously bad. Criticising someone that has said you should always make time for family.

What Sunak is basically saying, is I wouldn’t make time for my family, **** ‘em.

 

 

 

[bickster]

The Friday Night Dinner thing was so bad and ill thought out.

Why Friday night? Because his wife is Jewish and her father comes across…

Yep that there is antisemitism!

Not only that but Teresa May had pretty much the same rule for church on a Sunday.

The whole thing got destroyed in minutes

[bickster]

The actual seat ranges for the Survation poll

 

[villan95]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

The actual seat ranges for the Survation poll

 

Mad that even best case scenario Tories are still under 100 here

[ml1dch]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

The actual seat ranges for the Survation poll

 

Also worth noting that it's based on a Tory vote share of 22.8% - which is a good 2-3 points higher than a lot of polls have them.

 

[villan95]

14 minutes ago, bickster said:

The actual seat ranges for the Survation poll

 

53% chance that the Tories get more seats than the Llib Dems according to the data.