General Election Pre-Thread (6 of 6)

[blandy]

46 minutes ago, Jon said:

Can't see any reason why the polls aren't going to be pretty accurate

I dunno. I'm wary that so much of the coverage of this election has been about what the polls are telling us. Almost to the exclusion of much else. And the thing is they're nearly all thingummy polls - regression wossnames, where they take the "Yep, I'm voting for X party" and then to that, for each party they factor in all the "don't knows" by asking supplementary questions to try and profile how they might actually vote on the day - they're guessing, basically - maybe informed guessing, but still guessing, like "this person doesn't know, but as a 20 year old female student in London we'll put her down as Labour" or "This don't know is a 40 year old man from Doncaster who is employed in heavy industry and has 2 kids and voted for Brexit, so we'll put him down for reform" - it's a bit more complicated than that, obviously, but I suspect/am wary that there are plenty who will not vote as per the MRP predictions when push comes to shove. I'm thinking there will be more Tory votes and fewer Labour and more Lib Dem and Green votes and maybe more reform votes.

[Dodgyknees]

I've just suggested the points at which I think the polls are correct. It will still be a major majority. But anything like 90 seats or less for the Tories would shock me.

[tomav84]

yeah i can see turn out being low too. if you're a person with fairly decent morals but has voted tory all your life, who do you vote for? you don't like labour/starmer, or any of the left leaning parties for that matter. you can't bring yourself to vote for the shower that's the current tories. and you don't want to be associated with the far right of reform, you're pretty stuck for who to give your X to...and i suspect the number of folks whom i've just described to be pretty high

[Chindie]

The Tories will get a shoeing, but it'll be nowhere near the numbers the polls have been declaring. This country likes Tories, hence why Labour only do well when they turn into a tribute act.

[Stevo985]

9 hours ago, delboy54 said:

And just what is it that they need from us that they cannot get from all the other "safe European countries that they have crossed through?

Do people who think this have any ability to think critically?

It really doesn't take much complicated thinking to understand an answer to this.

I honestly despair at the same old tired arguments that have been answered a thousand times being brought up again and again

[chrisp65]

Radio vox pop this morning, they were talking to a farmer. He felt very let down, he’d been promised continuity of free money when we left europe, he’d been promised more exports and less competition. He couldn’t get the seasonal labour he needed, times were tough and nobody was doing anything about it.

”and can I ask who you’ll be voting for sir?”

”I’ll be voting tory, they’re the ones that tend to have the farmers best interests at heart”

seriously, I suspect the farmer is long dead and that was a pig walking on twos and wearing a hat

 

[Wainy316]

23 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

 if you're a person with fairly decent morals but has voted tory all your life

Does not compute

[Wainy316]

18 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Do people who think this have any ability to think critically?

It really doesn't take much complicated thinking to understand an answer to this.

I honestly despair at the same old tired arguments that have been answered a thousand times being brought up again and again

It also seems to be based on the belief that every single migrant that passes through Europe comes or tries to come here.  The vast majority stay on mainland Europe.

[Stevo985]

12 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

It also seems to be based on the belief that every single migrant that passes through Europe comes or tries to come here.  The vast majority stay on mainland Europe.

My aunt and uncle hold this view. I had to educate them on it recently. She's Irish, as is my mom, but lives in England (a migrant... go figure!)

I used a hypothetical situation, I said imagine France was geographically between Ireland and the UK. Now let's say unfortunately Putin decided it was us he was going to invade and our country was ravaged by war. it was either stay and be bombed, or flee the country.

In that hypothetical situation, would you hop over the border to France and stay there because it's the first safe country you came to? Or would you carry on and go to Ireland where you have loads of family, you speak the language, you know the country because you've visited it, you have friends there etc?

 

I mean it still didn't work. They'd probably sink the boats at the first opportunity. But I tried!

[ml1dch]

53 minutes ago, blandy said:

I dunno. I'm wary that so much of the coverage of this election has been about what the polls are telling us. Almost to the exclusion of much else. And the thing is they're nearly all thingummy polls - regression wossnames, where they take the "Yep, I'm voting for X party" and then to that, for each party they factor in all the "don't knows" by asking supplementary questions to try and profile how they might actually vote on the day - they're guessing, basically - maybe informed guessing, but still guessing, like "this person doesn't know, but as a 20 year old female student in London we'll put her down as Labour" or "This don't know is a 40 year old man from Doncaster who is employed in heavy industry and has 2 kids and voted for Brexit, so we'll put him down for reform" - it's a bit more complicated than that, obviously, but I suspect/am wary that there are plenty who will not vote as per the MRP predictions when push comes to shove. I'm thinking there will be more Tory votes and fewer Labour and more Lib Dem and Green votes and maybe more reform votes.

This is all true, but it depends where people are expecting them to eventually land. I agree that all the talk of "Tories will be the third largest party" seems very fanciful, but it's important not to forget that anything under 150 seats will still be the worst result in their history. 

Since any form of political grouping that could reasonably have been identified as Tories has existed, the lowest share of the vote that they have received at a General Election was the Duke of Wellington in 1832 at 29.2%.

Even at what seems to be the absolute upper levels of what it looks like they could hold onto on Friday morning, we're still almost certainly looking at the biggest Tory election defeat in history. And so it's going to important to remember all that when we're all saying how annoying it is that they outdid their polling and got to 130 seats on a 24% voteshare. 

Edited Tuesday at 15:05 by ml1dch

[Jon]

51 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

”I’ll be voting tory, they’re the ones that tend to have the farmers best interests at heart"

Historically he's not wrong.  The tories have traditionally been the party of the landowners, so there'll be a lot of history behind that vote.  

But yeah, I guess he's not got himself fully clued up as to recent political goings on / the historical tory bond is hard to shake.  

[chrisp65]

3 minutes ago, Jon said:

Historically he's not wrong.  The tories have traditionally been the party of the landowners, so there'll be a lot of history behind that vote.  

But yeah, I guess he's not got himself fully clued up as to recent political goings on / the historical tory bond is hard to shake.  

Voting for the ghost of Spencer Perceval will only get you so far.

 

[Davkaus]

Be careful folks, if you vote Labour, taxes will be high and so will energy costs, schools will struggle, and families will have to tighten their belts and cut back on luxuries. Have these pricks been asleep at the wheel?

 

[bickster]

25 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Be careful folks, if you vote Labour, taxes will be high and so will energy costs, schools will struggle, and families will have to tighten their belts and cut back on luxuries. Have these pricks been asleep at the wheel?

The polling that has been done regarding Tory Attack Ads and Supermajority bollocks suggests it actually pushes more people to vote Labour

[bickster]

Oh apparently Steve Baker reckons he fancies a tilt at being party leader after the election 

Steve mate, you were on holiday for at least the first week of the campaign and "campaigned from the beach" also, you have about a 10% chance of winning your seat in Wycombe  

[delboy54]

56 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Be careful folks, if you vote Labour, taxes will be high and so will energy costs, schools will struggle, and families will have to tighten their belts and cut back on luxuries. Have these pricks been asleep at the wheel?

 

Is it me?, at the start of the video it appears that the lights dont work implicating that there is no power. Yet the kettle works and the radio.

Mind you the radio could be powered by batteries........never seen a battery powered kettle though.....

[one_ian_taylor]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Radio vox pop this morning, they were talking to a farmer. He felt very let down, he’d been promised continuity of free money when we left europe, he’d been promised more exports and less competition. He couldn’t get the seasonal labour he needed, times were tough and nobody was doing anything about it.

”and can I ask who you’ll be voting for sir?”

”I’ll be voting tory, they’re the ones that tend to have the farmers best interests at heart”

seriously, I suspect the farmer is long dead and that was a pig walking on twos and wearing a hat

 

You grossly underestimate the pig.

[one_ian_taylor]

34 minutes ago, bickster said:

Oh apparently Steve Baker reckons he fancies a tilt at being party leader after the election 

Steve mate, you were on holiday for at least the first week of the campaign and "campaigned from the beach" also, you have about a 10% chance of winning your seat in Wycombe  

Sounds a bit over qualified

[bickster]

I’m not convinced Survation are going to be the pollster closest to the final result but that’s a difference of 3 between LibDems and Tory which could bring the Alliance Party into play

FWIW I think they have it a bit effed up

Cant see Reform getting 7

Can see both Green and PC getting 3/4

Cant see SNP getting only 10

Also think LibDem could be higher (there’s a few SW seats they don’t seem to be fancied in that they might actually win) same for places on the Thames corridor like Whitney

I think Labour are inflated and Tory similarly deflated compared to reality

Just doesn’t pass the sniff test for me.

 

 

[markavfc40]

It will be a thing of beauty if the Tories aren't even the official opposition.