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General Election Pre-Thread (6 of 6)


limpid

General Election Results 2024  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. How many Labour MPs?

  2. 2. How many Liberal Democrat MPs?

  3. 3. How many Conservative MPs?

  4. 4. What will the turnout be?


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  • Poll closed on 03/07/24 at 17:00

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Just now, mjmooney said:

I'm quite shocked that some of you have married women without knowing their political views. My wife and I wouldn't have got beyond a second date if either of us had had Tory (or worse) leanings. 

That's the point though, she didn't have political views and still doesn't. She is voting for the character she has seen on the telly.

I am in a very safe Labour seat so it wont make a jot of difference, I have expressed my disappointment in the reasons for her choice but ultimately it is her choice. She wouldn't know about all the policies   as she hasnt looked. The concerning thing for me though is how many other people across the Nations vote like this

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2 minutes ago, mrbojangles said:

That's the point though, she didn't have political views and still doesn't. She is voting for the character she has seen on the telly.

Same applies. That sort of mindset would be a massive red flag for me. Politics and religion (or even taste in music) may seem like irrelevancies in the first flush of romance, but if you expect to spend a lifetime together they could turn out to be major stumbling blocks. Other folks' mileage will vary, obviously. 

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14 minutes ago, bickster said:

I think the missus is going Labour and me LibDem as it stands and there's very little chance of that changing.

I think I’m more closely aligned to LibDem but because this town has long been Tory I feel I shouldn’t risk it and will vote Labour.

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41 minutes ago, blandy said:

It’s sadly a trend across Europe and the West and it will get worse. It is a bad thing, not because the voters are “wrong”, but because the politicians espousing these populist right wing “solutions” are wrong. They’re selling something they can’t provide, and because of the way the traditional parties have been timid in addressing so many issues and prioritising some things over others people are hacked off and more willing to believe the lies from the populist nutters.

This is why I'm  slightly sceptical of the view that there is a generational (and by implication longer term) shift towards the left. Authoritarian and populist politicians have always found a following,  especially in times of uncertainty, as they appeal to certain aspects of human nature, which changes very slowly over time. The unrest that seems likely to come from both climate change and AI advances will I think provide  a fertile ground for this kind of politician.

It's  why something like Robert Harris' Cicero trilogy is such an illuminating read about the politics of today - while it's  pretty well researched historically as far as I know,  it speaks to some of the fundamental aspects of human nature and how they shape politics.

Added to this, many people seem to become more illiberal as they get older. There's  no certainty  that the more liberal voters of today will vote the same tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, mjmooney said:

Same applies. That sort of mindset would be a massive red flag for me. Politics and religion (or even taste in music) may seem like irrelevancies in the first flush of romance, but if you expect to spend a lifetime together they could turn out to be major stumbling blocks. Other folks' mileage will vary, obviously. 

I am not an overly political person, taking an interest this year specifically to show my disdain for what has been happening under a Tory rule. She isn't voting because of a stance on immigration or the fact that they essentially want to get rid of any form of progression on environmental issues. Her vote is literally because she thought he stood by his morals (the fact that his morals are beyond questionable hasn't come into it apparently). If her vote was based on those 2 points then we definitely wouldn't have got together in the first place, we have known each other for 15 years so her vote choice has definitely puzzled me.

 

I think a bit more quizzing and highlighting some pretty immoral policies may be the order of the day when i get back home.

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1 minute ago, mrbojangles said:

I am not an overly political person, taking an interest this year specifically to show my disdain for what has been happening under a Tory rule. She isn't voting because of a stance on immigration or the fact that they essentially want to get rid of any form of progression on environmental issues. Her vote is literally because she thought he stood by his morals (the fact that his morals are beyond questionable hasn't come into it apparently). If her vote was based on those 2 points then we definitely wouldn't have got together in the first place, we have known each other for 15 years so her vote choice has definitely puzzled me.

 

I think a bit more quizzing and highlighting some pretty immoral policies may be the order of the day when i get back home.

What does she think about Brexit?

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Just now, Wainy316 said:

What does she think about Brexit?

Not a fan and wished that she had voted at the time against it. 

Being honest I didn't vote in the referendum either, something I will always regret but can never fix

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1 minute ago, mrbojangles said:

Not a fan and wished that she had voted at the time against it. 

Being honest I didn't vote in the referendum either, something I will always regret but can never fix

Well you could point her towards that it's the same guy...

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1 minute ago, Genie said:

Mercer just trying to go viral then

Or wanting to get arrested for wasting police time.

Veterans protesting against him isn’t a good look for him so if it does go viral…

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My missus considers me a bit of a centrist dad with too many compromised opinions based on preserving comforts and privileges.

Come the revolution, she could well dob me in.

Her music taste is uneventful, everything in that dull fug 5 out of 10 wallpaper wasteland between Fleetwood Mac, Elton John, and Coldplay.

Come the music revolution, I may well dob her in.

 

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3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

My missus considers me a bit of a centrist dad with too many compromised opinions based on preserving comforts and privileges.

Come the revolution, she could well dob me in.

Her music taste is uneventful, everything in that dull fug 5 out of 10 wallpaper wasteland between Fleetwood Mac, Elton John, and Coldplay.

Come the music revolution, I may well dob her in.

 

See my musings over in the Relationships thread. 

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25 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think I’m more closely aligned to LibDem but because this town has long been Tory I feel I shouldn’t risk it and will vote Labour.

Safe Labour seat where I am. My wife will vote Labour. I was going to go Lib Dem, but was put off by Ed Davey claiming to have fought the Tories all his life. Now I'm  probably Green - I was a member for a while, but would have described myself as being on the extreme right of the party. 

 

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Posted (edited)

I was going to comment about Boris coming off the subs bench, but it looked more like him coming from the memorabilia museum. 

Honestly, it doesn't get more desperate than that. 

Edited by sheepyvillian
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1 hour ago, mrbojangles said:

That's the point though, she didn't have political views and still doesn't. She is voting for the character she has seen on the telly.

I am in a very safe Labour seat so it wont make a jot of difference, I have expressed my disappointment in the reasons for her choice but ultimately it is her choice. She wouldn't know about all the policies   as she hasnt looked. The concerning thing for me though is how many other people across the Nations vote like this

It's a bit like the grand national. You have some who look at the form, the conditions, the odds etc and the rest who put money on to the horse with  the best name.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, one_ian_taylor said:

This is why I'm  slightly sceptical of the view that there is a generational (and by implication longer term) shift towards the left. Authoritarian and populist politicians have always found a following,  especially in times of uncertainty, as they appeal to certain aspects of human nature, which changes very slowly over time. The unrest that seems likely to come from both climate change and AI advances will I think provide  a fertile ground for this kind of politician.

It's  why something ike Robert Harris' Cicero trilogy is such an illuminating read about the politics of today - while it's  pretty well researched historically as far as I know,  it speaks to some of the fundamental aspects of human nature and how they shape politics.

Added to this, many people seem to become more illiberal as they get older. There's  no certainty  that the more liberal voters of today will vote the same tomorrow. 

Voting behaviour is also strongly linked to education levels and home ownership. Both of which are stats which are going away  very much against the tories. 

Edited by The Fun Factory
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Sam Freedman who is a good Twitter egg and knows his shizzle, has done a complete seat-by-seat analysis over 77,000 words of every constituency. Obviously I don't suggest you read all 77,000 words (it's also a paid substack), but it ends up like this:

Quote

 

Labour: 445 (+247)

Conservative: 98 (-276)

Liberal Democrat: 62 (+54)

SNP 16 (-32)

Sinn Fein 7 (=)

DUP 6 (-2)

Green 3 (+2)

Reform 3 (+3)

Plaid Cymru 3 (+1)

Alliance 2 (+1)

SDLP 2 (=)

UUP 1 (+1)

Independent 1 (+1)

Speaker 1 (=)

 

 

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