General Election Pre-Thread (6 of 6)

[Mandy Lifeboats]

22 minutes ago, Danwichmann said:

Agree with the essence of your post, but I thought counting spoiled votes varied by constituency? Some do and some don't. Happy to be corrected if that's wrong. 

Every constituency counts spoilt papers.  The returning officer knows from election paperwork EXACTLY how many votes were cast.  After the first round of counting the returning officer discusses the results with the candidates.

The total number of votes cast, results for each candidates and number of spolit papers are presented to the candidates.  If the figures show a decisive winner and the figures roughly balance the candidates and returning officer will agree to go with the first count.  

If the result is close and/or the figures clearly don't balance then any candidate or the returning officer can ask for a recount.  

Contrary to the impression given on TV, the result is widely known before officially declared. 

But some constituencies simply don't DECLARE the number of spolit papers in the results. 

 

 

[ml1dch]

6 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Yes but it does spoil the jeopardy somewhat during the night as they are so much more accurate now. It isn't just the Labour party who are forever scarred by 1992, pollsters as well never hear the end of it.

Although it's widely misremembered as predicting a Labour win - it didn't, it suggested too close to call / probable hung parliament, but didn't even have Labour as the largest party and did say that John Major would probably remain Prime Minister. 

[_AA_786]

25 minutes ago, Jonesy7211 said:

Met the grandmother of my daughter's best friend yesterday. She's 59 and has never voted before. Except for Brexit. (You can guess where this is going). I asked her why and she said she'd never been bothered.

Tomorrow she's going to vote in a national election for the first time. She's voting Reform because she quite likes Nigel Farage. When I said he was in part responsible for mess we're in economically she laughed and walked away.

 

With age comes wisdom clearly 

[chrisp65]

30 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Yes but it does spoil the jeopardy somewhat during the night as they are so much more accurate now. It isn't just the Labour party who are forever scarred by 1992, pollsters as well never hear the end of it.

 

23 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Although it's widely misremembered as predicting a Labour win - it didn't, it suggested too close to call / probable hung parliament, but didn't even have Labour as the largest party and did say that John Major would probably remain Prime Minister. 

It’s a myth that has grown up over the years, the triumphal speech snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Kinnock has been saying for a very long time that they had known from their own polling for 2 weeks prior to that Sheffield rally that they had lost.

[villan95]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

For possible post-election chortles

 

Badenoch was already projected to lose in one of the MRPs

[villa89]

45 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Yes but it does spoil the jeopardy somewhat during the night as they are so much more accurate now.

It means you can go to bed at 10:30PM. No need to stay up late which is a win for all. 

[blandy]

4 hours ago, delboy54 said:

But then again why are other European countries moving in the opposite direction?

Most of the European countries have been left/centre left for years, are you saying that the voters in Europe are wrong, and why do you think they have been disenfranchised by their left/centre left governments?

It’s sadly a trend across Europe and the West and it will get worse. It is a bad thing, not because the voters are “wrong”, but because the politicians espousing these populist right wing “solutions” are wrong. They’re selling something they can’t provide, and because of the way the traditional parties have been timid in addressing so many issues and prioritising some things over others people are hacked off and more willing to believe the lies from the populist nutters.

[one_ian_taylor]

30 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

It’s a myth that has grown up over the years, the triumphal speech snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Kinnock has been saying for a very long time that they had known from their own polling for 2 weeks prior to that Sheffield rally that they had lost.

Which makes the Sheffield rally appear even more bizarre

[chrisp65]

13 minutes ago, one_ian_taylor said:

Which makes the Sheffield rally appear even more bizarre

It’s Kinnock. He’s a weirdo.

 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, villa89 said:

The good thing about the election is that you know the results as soon as it's over. The Exit Poll will be very accurate despite the news companies trying to tell you it's not. 

I'm not convinced the exit poll will be accurate at the individual seat level this time. There are an awful lot of local issue seats. It may be not even be accurate for overall share of vote (esp in Scotland) because they are using the same seats to indicate as they have at the last few elections, the swings in many seats are going to be wild and I'm not sure the exit poll's modelling can cope with this.

[bickster]

47 minutes ago, villa89 said:

It means you can go to bed at 10:30PM. No need to stay up late which is a win for all. 

nah, there is so much winning to be had staying up to watch dejected Tories faces.

12:15ish should be Billericay (Richard Holden) as your starter for 10

[one_ian_taylor]

5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

It’s Kinnock. He’s a weirdo.

 

Mystery solved 

[bickster]

2 hours ago, The Fun Factory said:

and the libd dems and greens picking up some tactical votes

I suspect the LibDems are actually going to lose votes to tactical this time around not gain

The greens aren't really picking up tactical votes, they are picking up NIMBY One Nation votes and Corbynista votes. If the greens win 4 seats, one they hold (not a tactical vote), one is a straight fight as a result of boundary changes with Labour (not tactical) and the other two possibles are disaffected one nation Tories who have been voting Green in their area anyway

[The Fun Factory]

We're alright. Poor Neil in the end no one really wanted him as a PM.

Edited July 3 by The Fun Factory

[mrbojangles]

Been encouraging the wife for a while that she should vote as she never has in the past. She knows my very strong feelings on who I will be voting for this time and why.

 

Half an hour ago she announced she has made up her mind and will be voting reform, when I asked why she would do such a thing her response was "he came across really well on I'm a celebrity and sticks to his guns".

 

Looks like this year I will be getting a divorce.

[Genie]

My wife has also never voted as far as I am aware. She is determined to vote tomorrow to play her part in ending the current reign of chaos. 

I genuinely would consider divorce if she was going to vote reform. 

Edited July 3 by Genie

[bickster]

I think the missus is going Labour and me LibDem as it stands and there's very little chance of that changing.

[mjmooney]

I'm quite shocked that some of you have married women without knowing their political views. My wife and I wouldn't have got beyond a second date if either of us had had Tory (or worse) leanings. 

[cyrusr]

2 minutes ago, mrbojangles said:

Been encouraging the wife for a while that she should vote as she never has in the past. She knows my very strong feelings on who I will be voting for this time and why.

 

Half an hour ago she announced she has made up her mind and will be voting reform, when I asked why she would do such a thing her response was "he came across really well on I'm a celebrity and sticks to his guns".

 

Looks like this year I will be getting a divorce.

 

Just now, Genie said:

My wife has also never voted as far as I am aware. She is determined to vote tomorrow to play her part in ending the current reign of chaos. 

I genuinely would consider divorce if she was going go vote reform. 

My wife is relatively despondent when it comes to politics but will generally vote (after gentle encouragement). This year however she was so determined to make sure that this nonsense ends she’s voted Labour (postal) before I had a chance to gently remind her. She is so mad as to how bad the country has got, particularly with the NHS and just the sheer lack of investment in the infrastructure. I’m very proud of her.

Me, well given it’s Erdington I think we are safe (although the tactical vote is saying Labour) I’ve voted Green on principles. Part of me is slightly concerned I didn’t vote “tactically” just to make sure but I just cannot see Tories winning here in any capacity given they didn’t win it in 2019 (voted Labour then to make sure). They local councillor who is popular isn’t even running so they don’t even have that support.

Friday is booked off, just need to make sure I’m rested for a long Thursday night  

[bickster]

Mercer appears to be judging his polling on how many times he's been called a rocket polisher

You're on a bridge today, you just cant hear as well today you absolute weapon.