General Election Pre-Thread (5 of 6)

[bickster]

1 minute ago, icouldtelltheworld said:

If they ever manage to properly sort themselves out they're uniquely placed in British politics to take a large chunk of 'mainstream' votes from both the main two parties IMO. You'd expect that their vote share will increase over the next few elections as well, with the younger generations being much more motivated by climate change.

Will be interesting to see their trajectory over the next decade or so. The Lib Dems gained a lot of political capital during the Blair/Brown years pitching themselves to the left of Labour on social issues, there's potentially a lot of space about to open for someone to step into over the next few parliaments

Not going to happen. Labour estranged Corbynistas and Tory NIMBYs will eventually eat themselves

[icouldtelltheworld]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Not going to happen. Labour estranged Corbynistas and Tory NIMBYs will eventually eat themselves

Well that's me told then  

I don't think its inconceivable that a significant chunk of moderate-ish naturally Tory NIMBYs start to vote in the interest of their Corbynista kids/grandkids over the next few elections, especially we carry on our same trajectory with regards inequality, housing crisis, climate crisis etc. I could certainly be wrong about that though 

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, icouldtelltheworld said:

Well that's me told then  

I don't think its inconceivable that a significant chunk of moderate-ish naturally Tory NIMBYs start to vote in the interest of their Corbynista kids/grandkids over the next few elections, especially we carry on our same trajectory with regards inequality, housing crisis, climate crisis etc. I could certainly be wrong about that though 

Has Brexit taught you nothing  

[icouldtelltheworld]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Has Brexit taught you nothing  

Mostly how much my leave voting mom regrets it

[sidcow]

55 minutes ago, icouldtelltheworld said:

If they ever manage to properly sort themselves out they're uniquely placed in British politics to take a large chunk of 'mainstream' votes from both the main two parties IMO. You'd expect that their vote share will increase over the next few elections as well, with the younger generations being much more motivated by climate change.

Will be interesting to see their trajectory over the next decade or so. The Lib Dems gained a lot of political capital during the Blair/Brown years pitching themselves to the left of Labour on social issues, there's potentially a lot of space about to open for someone to step into over the next few parliaments

My daughter did not vote in the council/mayoral election which was her first opportunity to vote. We did the whole people died for your right talk to no effect. 

She's however said she definitely will vote in the GE so she can vote Green. 

[icouldtelltheworld]

9 minutes ago, sidcow said:

My daughter did not vote in the council/mayoral election which was her first opportunity to vote. We did the whole people died for your right talk to no effect. 

She's however said she definitely will vote in the GE so she can vote Green. 

This is largely my point - demographically, the Conservative vote could be dying out. People entering old age in ~10 years time could well be voting Green for genuinely small c conservative/moderately socialist reasons on the advice/in the interests of their kids/grandkids.

Ordinarily that section of the electorate is  overwhelmingly made up of Tory voters, I'm not sure that's going to be the case moving forwards and those voters will need somewhere to go

Edited June 21 by icouldtelltheworld

[bickster]

8 hours ago, icouldtelltheworld said:

This is largely my point - demographically, the Conservative vote could be dying out. People entering old age in ~10 years time could well be voting Green for genuinely small c conservative/moderately socialist reasons on the advice/in the interests of their kids/grandkids.

Ordinarily that section of the electorate is  overwhelmingly made up of Tory voters, I'm not sure that's going to be the case moving forwards and those voters will need somewhere to go

Agree with a lot of that reasoning, I just see their new home as the LibDems, who are far more One-Nation than the Greens will ever be.

[ml1dch]

37 minutes ago, bickster said:

Agree with a lot of that reasoning, I just see their new home as the LibDems, who are far more One-Nation than the Greens will ever be.

We've covered the tricky coalition that the Greens are going to have and the Tory / Labour ones are well established, but it feels that if the Lib Dems win well (and they will, it's clearly just a question of how well) then they're going to have some pretty tricky choices about which direction they move. 

There will be pressure from their membership to position themselves to the left of Starmer, but the seats that they are going to win (and thus be at risk of losing next time) are going to be the disaffected Tory ones across the south. So you'll have a leader, an electorate and and a parliamentary party that will likely want to position themselves to become the new centre-right party in the void that is currently there, but a base that wants to fight for that space to the left of Labour. 

One of those situations where the more MPs / power they have, the harder their job might end up being. 
 

[chrisp65]

I think what annoyed me was yet another case of Farage being allowed to claim a level of insight he really didn’t have. Quoting himself as some sort of visionary predicting a war in 2014. Would that be the 2014 where Russia took Crimea in the February?
The man is an absolute danger, that millions can’t see it, is amazing.

[Rugeley Villa]

Remember it being quite cool to vote Labour when Tony Blair was running. Noel Gallagher visiting Downing Street making good use of the toilets there and even my grandad voted Labour for the first and last time being a staunch Tory .

[bickster]

19 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Remember it being quite cool to vote Labour when Tony Blair was running. Noel Gallagher visiting Downing Street making good use of the toilets there and even my grandad voted Labour for the first and last time being a staunch Tory .

That was very much post-1997

[bickster]

23 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

We've covered the tricky coalition that the Greens are going to have and the Tory / Labour ones are well established, but it feels that if the Lib Dems win well (and they will, it's clearly just a question of how well) then they're going to have some pretty tricky choices about which direction they move. 

There will be pressure from their membership to position themselves to the left of Starmer, but the seats that they are going to win (and thus be at risk of losing next time) are going to be the disaffected Tory ones across the south. So you'll have a leader, an electorate and and a parliamentary party that will likely want to position themselves to become the new centre-right party in the void that is currently there, but a base that wants to fight for that space to the left of Labour. 

One of those situations where the more MPs / power they have, the harder their job might end up being. 
 

Yes I'm in agreement but if there’s one thing the LibDems have always done is switch it about. That isn’t a compliment, I've criticised them an awful lot for it.

I'm also of the opinion that despite the loud noise from the left (and the Faragists) that Labour and Tory are the same, post election that will not be the narrative from the media. Within 6 months they'll be the second incarnation of Stalin. The VAT on private schools, the rumoured and signalled increases in inheritance tax / capital gains tax will cement it.

As ever it'll be about public perception and not so much actual policy. 

[bickster]

This might go down as one of the most dumb election complaints ever

 

[bickster]

The Johnny Mercer thing is also blowing up all over the place. He carried in on later… Then early this morning said he was leaving it there. Drawing a line under it. Except he didn’t, he’s at least 6 more tweets into it now and the first was only about 30 minutes later. I’m just enjoying how internally raging he is about something a journalist printed a year ago and has never been said by his opponent… ever.

The smell of desperation is great and his seat is now on my watchlist for election night

 

[markavfc40]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

 

The smell of desperation is great and his seat is now on my watchlist for election night

 

Watching Johnny 'if I was chocolate I'd eat myself' Mercer lose his seat is going to be one of the many joyful moments on election night. 

[Chindie]

Mercer is a weird one in that he apparently hates politics but obviously with his... history... he's basically pot committed to it. I like to think he's in a hell of his own making.

[ml1dch]

18 minutes ago, bickster said:

The Johnny Mercer thing is also blowing up all over the place.

I'll give you one chance at honesty. Did you insinuate my wife was a prostitute on the Plymouth Herald comments section?

[bickster]

39 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I'll give you one chance at honesty. Did you insinuate my wife was a prostitute on the Plymouth Herald comments section?

She makes Andrea Jenkins seem like a civilised and respectable human being. That’s all I’m saying  

[bickster]

Yeah yeah Tories lying about Labour so nothing new… but it’s that last one that amused me

Labour will flatten the green belt…

It’s going to take some feat of engineering to turn the Cotswolds into a plain let alone Snowdonia and the Lake District

 

[Davkaus]

If those ads are legal, they shouldn't be.