General Election Pre-Thread (5 of 6)

[ml1dch]

39 minutes ago, bickster said:

I have no evidence for this but the internet has changed a lot of peoples perceptions, I think it's relatively hard for any leader to even get into positive figures these days

Very much agree with this. The "big enthusiasm for Labour in 1997" is nothing more than hindsight brought about by the size of the majoriy they won. In the run-up to the 2044 election people will be writing about how the current party is miles away from the tides of optimism that swept Keir Starmer's party to such a spectacular victory.

As a case in point, Starmer's approval rating is currently significantly higher than Johnson's was in 2019. Was the take away from the 2019 election that the country didn't like Johnson, or was it that he had led his party to a spectacular victory?

Political nerds like us know that it was a battle between two pretty hopeless cases in a fight to be the least unpopular, but after the 2019 election the wider narrative in the country was definitely not "unpopular Boris Johnson and his -14 net approval rating".

[bickster]

This is some wild wild polling.

The Greens have been targeting this. Best for Britain are saying Green for a tactical vote but Electoral Calculus have it as a 90% chance of a Tory win, 8% Labour and 2% Tory

BfB's latest poll had this as a toss up between Tory and Green but there was still a 6% gap between them in the Tories favour

If the Greens do indeed win this seat then the Tory Party is beyond f***ed

Shame its a mainly rural seat as it will declare later

 

[bickster]

Oh and another Green target Seat...

Similar story to above, except this should be a 60/40 toss up between Tory/Lab

 

[Davkaus]

If the Greens can win a few seats I'd be delighted. There's a few dealbreakers in their manifesto for me, but them getting some seats and continuing to poll well might scare some of the other parties into giving a shit.

[The Fun Factory]

43 minutes ago, bickster said:

This is some wild wild polling.

The Greens have been targeting this. Best for Britain are saying Green for a tactical vote but Electoral Calculus have it as a 90% chance of a Tory win, 8% Labour and 2% Tory

BfB's latest poll had this as a toss up between Tory and Green but there was still a 6% gap between them in the Tories favour

If the Greens do indeed win this seat then the Tory Party is beyond f***ed

Shame its a mainly rural seat as it will declare later

 

Yes I did have a double take on this. However locally the conservatives re-took the council last year. Sir Bill Wiggin is a particularly awful tory backbencher though and strong ties to the farming community which has caused a lo of pollution on the wye. I thought south hereford would be more likely to be lost by the tories though.

[bickster]

This one could be very amusing from Mercer. He made the allegations when he left the hustings last night and he's doubling down on it all day.

 

[bickster]

 

[bickster]

Going back to a previous theme

 

[ml1dch]

Quote

"Imagine someone said ‘I want to destroy Arsenal. I want to rip down the Emirates. I want to destroy everything that you stand for"

Finally, the sort of Tory policy I can get behind. 

Edited June 21 by ml1dch

[desensitized43]

https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001261

Seriously. Who are these 30% of people who are still saying they're going to vote Tory in my area?

I know the demographic around here is old, white and a little bit on the prejudice side, but come on!

I'm embarrassed for you, Halesowen.

[Davkaus]

Sunak not only refusing to rule out that cabinet ministers put bets on the election date, but refusing to say that he's currently unaware of it happening.

Remember his opening speech as PM promising integrity at every level? I mean, nobody believed it, obviously, but it's very funny that they'll end things with another set of crimes

[chrisp65]

As soon as he was annoyed and upset and angry… but not actually going to do anything about it this side of the election, I thought yep, you knew all about it, it was bantz in the office.

 

[bickster]

15 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001261

Seriously. Who are these 30% of people who are still saying they're going to vote Tory in my area?

I know the demographic around here is old, white and a little bit on the prejudice side, but come on!

I'm embarrassed for you, Halesowen.

I'd be quite relieved at this point that the Tories are on 30% and Reform on only 10%

I'm finding the rise of Reform rather troublesome

If 3/4 of the right wing vote in a seat is Tory over Reform, its a small win at least

[The Fun Factory]

And it is all so small time, a couple of hundred-pound bets. With all of the inside knowledge available  was it really worth risking on it for a few notes? Or are they so stupid that they didn't think it would be a problem?

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

And it is all so small time, a couple of hundred-pound bets. With all of the inside knowledge available  was it really worth risking on it for a few notes? Or are they so stupid that they didn't think it would be a problem?

Bookies have very low maximums on political betting

[Wainy316]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Going back to a previous theme

 

Is he using Ollie Watkins as his analogy?

[desensitized43]

45 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'd be quite relieved at this point that the Tories are on 30% and Reform on only 10%

I'm finding the rise of Reform rather troublesome

If 3/4 of the right wing vote in a seat is Tory over Reform, its a small win at least

Definitely. I had a conversation with a colleague today who’s planning to vote reform.

I told him that I’d be very concerned and that in my view they were just the acceptable face of the BNP. Needless to say he didn’t agree. His main argument for voting that way was the usual “they’re all the same” and that “we only ever get labour or conservative so it’s time for something different”.

The most worrying thing is that he’s not an idiot. Some of these people are pretty unsavoury but when a party can appeal to racists/fascists and simultaneously dupe ordinarily normal folk into thinking they’re the right choice it’s very problematic.

I blame the Tories. They opened this Pandora’s box. 

[cyrusr]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

This is some wild wild polling.

The Greens have been targeting this. Best for Britain are saying Green for a tactical vote but Electoral Calculus have it as a 90% chance of a Tory win, 8% Labour and 2% Tory

BfB's latest poll had this as a toss up between Tory and Green but there was still a 6% gap between them in the Tories favour

If the Greens do indeed win this seat then the Tory Party is beyond f***ed

Shame its a mainly rural seat as it will declare later

 

I think is a reflection of the impact of tactical voting. Both are green recommendations on stoptheTories.vote as well so again consensus which is really good, although given both Green target seats that is understandable.

If this pattern is spread across the country it could be utterly brutal for Tories.

[choffer]

Galloway grift leaflet up on the noticeboard in the (common) hallway this afternoon. 
Old codger upstairs saw me remove it and grumpily asked me to put it back. I said I was keen to see what they had to offer and that seemed to placate him. Said I’d put it back once I’d read it all. Shame I’m away now until after the election. 

Edited June 22 by choffer
Typo

[icouldtelltheworld]

7 hours ago, Davkaus said:

If the Greens can win a few seats I'd be delighted. There's a few dealbreakers in their manifesto for me, but them getting some seats and continuing to poll well might scare some of the other parties into giving a shit.

If they ever manage to properly sort themselves out they're uniquely placed in British politics to take a large chunk of 'mainstream' votes from both the main two parties IMO. You'd expect that their vote share will increase over the next few elections as well, with the younger generations being much more motivated by climate change.

Will be interesting to see their trajectory over the next decade or so. The Lib Dems gained a lot of political capital during the Blair/Brown years pitching themselves to the left of Labour on social issues, there's potentially a lot of space about to open for someone to step into over the next few parliaments