General Election Pre-Thread (5 of 6)

[one_ian_taylor]

2 hours ago, Davkaus said:

It starts pretty tame, but the last 10 minutes are pretty brutal, he just snaps, he absolutely can't stand the plebs questioning him.

He looked on the verge of tears at times I thought,  as well as wearing  a barely disguised snarl of condescension towards the questioners

[Danwichmann]

My vote has been sent. Can't wait to see the scum gone. 

[bickster]

Erm… they don’t even realise do they…

And that’s an absolutely wild claim about inheritance tax. It also appeals to a very very very small subset of the population 

[numbersix]

just watched the qt sideshow featuring the billionaire and 2 knights of the realm we're allowed to choose from...

enjoy your democracy lads, I'm off to get some petrol and rags for these empty bottles 

[choffer]

17 minutes ago, bickster said:

Erm… they don’t even realise do they…

And that’s an absolutely wild claim about inheritance tax. It also appeals to a very very very small subset of the population 

All I'm seeing there is the phrase "No Quality Guarantee" and I can't think that it's anything other than apt for the Tories.

[Demitri_C]

That QT was dreadful. Rishi was terrible and starmer was sending ne to sleep.

No one wants to see this. Id rather see a debate with them and the other main parties than this shoddy format thats boring and uninspiring 

[desensitized43]

I think we need a new poll.

Who's doing a worse job at managing their team?

a. Rishi Sunak

b. Gareth Southgate

[Jareth]

21 minutes ago, numbersix said:

just watched the qt sideshow featuring the billionaire and 2 knights of the realm we're allowed to choose from...

enjoy your democracy lads, I'm off to get some petrol and rags for these empty bottles 

Reform voter?

[numbersix]

2 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Reform voter?

reformed voter

[The Fun Factory]

These massive poll leads may not actually help Labour as people might not bother to vote thinking its a done job. I think turnout will be quite low even though it will be a historic landslide, maybe a bit like 2001.  It is getting to the stage now that if Labour don't get 450 seats and the Tories less  than 100 people will say it's a disappointing result which would be mad.

I have only just noted that in Chingford seat that IDS holds Labour threw out their candidates (who got the majority down to about 1200 last time) because she liked some tweets about the Green Party and a mildly anti Israel post in social media posts years ago when she wasn't even a Labour party candidate. She is standing as an independent so could split the vote and IDS could keep his seat.  Quite a few strange things are going on in London.

[DaoDeMings]

6 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

These massive poll leads may not actually help Labour as people might not bother to vote thinking its a done job. I think turnout will be quite low even though it will be a historic landslide, maybe a bit like 2001.  It is getting to the stage now that if Labour don't get 450 seats and the Tories less  than 100 people will say it's a disappointing result which would be mad.

I have only just noted that in Chingford seat that IDS holds Labour threw out their candidates (who got the majority down to about 1200 last time) because she liked some tweets about the Green Party and a mildly anti Israel post in social media posts years ago when she wasn't even a Labour party candidate. She is standing as an independent so could split the vote and IDS could keep his seat.  Quite a few strange things are going on in London.

I initially thought the turnout would be quite high (usually is on elections with an outgoing government). Also anti-Tory sentiment is very strong. But I’m starting to think it may actually be quite low with these polls and a general sense of apathy. Pro-Labour sentiment is actually still quite weak, too, much weaker than in 1997.

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

I think turnout will be quite low

I really can't see this.

Fairly high numbers of younger people registering to vote in the run up to the deadline

Reform Voters, an awful lot of them are traditional non voters that have been activated like a sleeper cell

The sheer hatred of the Tories and the big tactical voting campaigns

Labour seem to be slipping slightly in the polls too

The weather is most likely going to be OK

Voters have had 2 local election cycles to get used to voter ID

All of those would seem to suggest the opposite

[bickster]

1 minute ago, DaoDeMings said:

Pro-Labour sentiment is actually still quite weak, too, much weaker than in 1997.

If you're talking about the Labour polling figures in 1997, then yes but the polling significantly over estimated Labour's share of the vote (and underestimated the LibDems) - final polling was about 48%, Labour got around 42%

I really don't remember pro-Labour sentiment then either, it was much more get rid of the Tories sentiment.

[The Fun Factory]

23 minutes ago, bickster said:

I really can't see this.

Fairly high numbers of younger people registering to vote in the run up to the deadline

Reform Voters, an awful lot of them are traditional non voters that have been activated like a sleeper cell

The sheer hatred of the Tories and the big tactical voting campaigns

Labour seem to be slipping slightly in the polls too

The weather is most likely going to be OK

Voters have had 2 local election cycles to get used to voter ID

All of those would seem to suggest the opposite

We haven't had a turnout over 70% this century, and over 75% since 1992. The last two elections were higher due to Brexit. I just don't see Starmer quickening the pulse of many, the expected win will be more down to the collapse of the tory vote. I would be surprised if it is over 65%.

[DaoDeMings]

26 minutes ago, bickster said:

If you're talking about the Labour polling figures in 1997, then yes but the polling significantly over estimated Labour's share of the vote (and underestimated the LibDems) - final polling was about 48%, Labour got around 42%

I really don't remember pro-Labour sentiment then either, it was much more get rid of the Tories sentiment.

Blair’s personal ratings were high though, whereas Starmer’s are quite poor, which is what makes me think people are much less excited about Labour than they were back then.

Instinct still tells me it will be relatively high though. As you said, tactical voting campaigns seem to be more active than ever which could have a big impact.

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, DaoDeMings said:

Blair’s personal ratings were high though, whereas Starmer’s are quite poor

I have no evidence for this but the internet has changed a lot of peoples perceptions, I think it's relatively hard for any leader to even get into positive figures these days

I'm not sure that particular aspect of polling is a fair comparison 1997 to 2024

[bickster]

21 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

We haven't had a turnout over 70% this century, and over 75% since 1992. The last two elections were higher due to Brexit. I just don't see Starmer quickening the pulse of many, the expected win will be more down to the collapse of the tory vote. I would be surprised if it is over 65%.

Every election since 2001 has had an increased turnout with the exception of 2019 when it dipped to just under 68% The general trend is upwards not downwards

[Davkaus]

2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

That QT was dreadful. Rishi was terrible and starmer was sending ne to sleep.

No one wants to see this. Id rather see a debate with them and the other main parties than this shoddy format thats boring and uninspiring 

I agree with your assessment of them, but I thought that the format was the best one yet, a wide range of questions, enough time to answer them, and pressing them when they dodged the question, without constantly interrupting like on Sky.

I think there's another one with them head to head next week

[Demitri_C]

48 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I agree with your assessment of them, but I thought that the format was the best one yet, a wide range of questions, enough time to answer them, and pressing them when they dodged the question, without constantly interrupting like on Sky.

I think there's another one with them head to head next week

 Yeah thats true about them getting more time to answer

I think they went too soft on rishi and starmer personally not applying enough pressure on them

 

[Jon]

1 hour ago, DaoDeMings said:

I initially thought the turnout would be quite high (usually is on elections with an outgoing government). Also anti-Tory sentiment is very strong. But I’m starting to think it may actually be quite low with these polls and a general sense of apathy. Pro-Labour sentiment is actually still quite weak, too, much weaker than in 1997.

You're right.  

But I do think turnout will be fairly decent. The sheer amount of anti Tory sentiment will drive that.  People want them out, which is driving the Labour vote. There's very little by the way of pro Labour sentiment, more a fairly determined mood to get rid of this bunch of  horrible rocket polishers.  It'll drive turnout IMO.