General Election Pre-Thread (4 of 6)

[The Fun Factory]

10 minutes ago, bickster said:

There is one trend from the MRP polling across all companies and that is that the Tories seat numbers are significantly higher than in the normal polling

I think the second YouGov MRP of the election period is due out in a few minutes, the changes between their two will be interesting

Well yes but the difference is from either a massive landslide or a catastrophic defeat. Not a great  choice for them.

[ml1dch]

26 minutes ago, bickster said:

I think the second YouGov MRP of the election period is due out in a few minutes, the changes between their two will be interesting

Some interesting stuff in the constituency-level polling. Richard Holden desperately trying to find a safe seat, and only polling third in Basildon & Billericay is a good one. 

Edited June 19 by ml1dch

[DaoDeMings]

1 minute ago, ml1dch said:

 

Wow, very different. Feeling is that YouGov’s seems more likely to be closer to the result, but they often overestimate the smaller parties.

[ml1dch]

Just now, DaoDeMings said:

Wow, very different. Feeling is that YouGov’s seems more likely to be closer to the result, but they often overestimate the smaller parties.

True enough, but polling is historically done on the basis of "the previous times that we saw X, that meant that Y happened". This time it feels like there are so many different moving parts that there isn't really the right historical data to accurately compare to.

[Xela]

Listening to 'water cooler' talk at my office, I'd say its 75% Reform, 20% Labour and 5% hang them all! 

[theboyangel]

Jeez, what has political journalism become?

Keir Starmer being interviewed by Gary bloody Neville!?!? 

[ml1dch]

1 hour ago, Xela said:

Listening to 'water cooler' talk at my office, I'd say its 75% Reform, 20% Labour and 5% hang them all! 

How is the new job at Broadmoor Hospital?

[Xela]

23 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

How is the new job at Broadmoor Hospital?

I'd get more sense there I think!

[ml1dch]

Lovely stuff.

[bickster]

37 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Lovely stuff.

They’re announcing what they’ve been doing all week anyway  I think I saw a stat earlier that the average majority in the seats Sunak has been to this week is 14K  

[chrisp65]

41 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Lovely stuff.

Basically Dunkirk, but with an aversion to small boats.

[one_ian_taylor]

8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Basically Dunkirk, but with an aversion to small boats.

God that's  good

[bickster]

The betting on the election date thing may be about to blow up.

It seems it isn’t just the protection officer, another candidate is also being investigated. Laura Saunders, candidate in Bristol NW appears to be being investigated. She’s worked for the party since 2015…

It also seems she’s not the only one as CCHQ have said they’ve been contacted about “a small number of individuals” and that doesn’t sound like just the two now in the public domain

[Davkaus]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

Lovely stuff.

100 seats can stlil become 0 if Rishi keeps beavering away.

[chrisp65]

Interesting they would arrest the police officer, but not the candidates. I guess there’s some subtle difference between what is insider trading type knowledge amongst politicians, versus official secrets for the close protection officer?

 

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Interesting they would arrest the police officer, but not the candidates. I guess there’s some subtle difference between what is insider trading type knowledge amongst politicians, versus official secrets for the close protection officer?

 

Yep that’s my assumption too, he’s meant to keep his trap shut about anything he hears.

[bickster]

It really does look like the idea of it just being Sunak, Dowden (remember him) and Forsyth being the ones that knew as being a little wrong

[blandy]

37 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Interesting they would arrest the police officer, but not the candidates. I guess there’s some subtle difference between what is insider trading type knowledge amongst politicians, versus official secrets for the close protection officer?

I dunno if it would be under the OSA, tbh. I did some stuff which we had to sign extra, non-OSA, “under pain of imprisonment” undertakings about, which were more “UK Commercial” interest related than national security (at the time).  I’m guessing the date of a GE, before it is public knowledge, might come under a similar umbrella.  There’s no security aspect really around it getting out 3 days earlier.

[bickster]

It’s probably more like misconduct in a public office than OSA

[Wainy316]

Pretty sure thread 5 should be open by now.  Messing with my OCD.