General Election Pre-Thread (4 of 6)

[bobzy]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

This would be a seat they'd fight over normally. 8K majority, they'd need to secure the vote. This seat actually highlights the problem with their 80/20 strategy. Highly likely this isn't in the 80

Just seems remarkable that nothing is happening here (yet).

[bickster]

15 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Just seems remarkable that nothing is happening here (yet).

Unless something changes it won't. Their strategy going into this was to heavily campaign in the 80 most marginal seats they held and the 20 most marginal that they didn't. (The 80/20 strategy) That's where their money has been focused and they are short of money too. Given the polling for a long time before this election was called, its an absolutely mental strategy, it relied on the margin of difference narrowing before the election.

At least John Major knew in 1997 that he was going to lose, he had the speech written well in advance and the strategy was based on damage limitation. This strategy was based on not accepting the inevitable defeat and trying to capture more seats. Insanity that will see them lose more seats because the money is focused on seats they will still lose

[Wainy316]

37 minutes ago, bickster said:

Both Electoral Calculus and Best for Britain have that down as a Labour Win

The BfB MRP says

Conservative
30.56%
Labour
47.63%

Everyone else is below 10% and the fieldwork was done last week. They also reckon 42% of the constituency plan to vote tactically

 

Labour polling slightly higher yet telling me to vote Lib Dem (Didcot & Wantage).

 

Conservative27.80%

 

Labour29.53%

 

Liberal Democrats28.37%

[cyrusr]

52 minutes ago, bickster said:

Best for Britain Tactical Voting guide is out

Follow the link for their recommendation as to which is the tactical vote in your seat.

I've not really gone through it yet to see how accurate I think it is

Thanks for this. 

So I've been looking at https://stopthetories.vote/ for tactical vote which has been endorsed by Carol Vorderman (amongst others). I like the way Best for Britain breaks down why they are making the recommendation.

Obviously both seem to be working on the same principle it just would be bad if they are making different recommendations. Comparing the 2 though on some, I can see that they are suggesting the same on both which is good but do you know of a particularly tight race for the tactical vote out there to see if there is a difference of opinion? 

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Labour polling slightly higher yet telling me to vote Lib Dem (Didcot & Wantage).

The recommendations aren't based entirely on the polling, especially in three way fights like that. I'm guessing here but I imagine that they think it's much easier to get disaffected Tories to shift to the LibDems than Labour

Electoral calculus also has that as a LibDem win currently

[bickster]

1 minute ago, cyrusr said:

Thanks for this. 

So I've been looking at https://stopthetories.vote/ for tactical vote which has been endorsed by Carol Vorderman (amongst others). I like the way Best for Britain breaks down why they are making the recommendation.

Obviously both seem to be working on the same principle it just would be bad if they are making different recommendations. Comparing the 2 though on some, I can see that they are suggesting the same on both which is good but do you know of a particularly tight race for the tactical vote out there to see if there is a difference of opinion? 

Not had a chance to look yet tbh

[Chindie]

Best for Britain, iirc, has a super hard on for Lib Dems. It's not an unbiased organisation.

[cyrusr]

8 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

 

Labour polling slightly higher yet telling me to vote Lib Dem (Didcot & Wantage).

 

Conservative27.80%

 

Labour29.53%

 

Liberal Democrats28.37%

If you go into the actual seat, it suggests that this is a Lib Dem target seat so for local reasons this is the target seat

https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001197

Stop the Tories also has this a Lib Dem recommendation as well so probably a good shout.

Edit: Also Lib Dems came 2nd in 2019 so that will be probably be another reason for it to be the recommendation. 

Edited June 17 by cyrusr

[blandy]

On my bike ride yesterday around the houses and streets of what is/was a very safe Tory seat, apart from the Independent candidate who lives round the corner and has got her friends and neighbours putting up posters in her street and nearby, I didn’t see a single poster or sign. There’s been 2 leaflets through the door, the Independent and the Labour one. You’d almost not know there is an election coming.

[The Fun Factory]

Yes haven't seen a poster anywhere where I live and according to the polls it could go Labour but you wouldn't think it.

[cyrusr]

Nah I've not really seen any posters and not had anything save for a Labour leaflet (Birmingham Erdington FWIW). To be honest, it'll be Labour come what may as its basically been Labour since 1974 (when recreated) and even in 2019 it remained Labour. 

According to tactical voters it should be a Labour but really doesn't need it. Even taking into account all of the above, it is interesting that the Tory candidate is not the local councillor who has seemingly got a good reputation, lives local and got a lot in both the general and by election. It seems he didn't fancy it for some reason. Instead they some unknown guy from Derby who doesn't appear to have any connection to the area and I have not seen any real campaigning for (almost certainly will not be in the Tories 80/20). I expect a pretty big drubbing for the Tories.

[Jareth]

We need a website to tell us which tactical voting website to use

[bickster]

20 minutes ago, Jareth said:

We need a website to tell us which tactical voting website to use

How many do you know of?

 

[chrisp65]

First of the non Labour leaflets is in, and it’s a beaut!
 

 

He’s a bit proud of his Jaguar. He refers to it as ‘she’. It’ll be better spec than that one they had on Morse. It’s a Jag. Bloody proud of it too.

Also, as can be seen from the shirt, he’s a proud proud Welshman, 5 times a year. Even went to a game once.

You can bet your house he’s wearing brown shoes, only concealed by the Jaguar. She’s a beauty.

Still serving a suspension because of that thing he said about the ladies at the golf club.

Did I mention he’s got a Jag?
 

[Seat68]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

On my bike ride yesterday around the houses and streets of what is/was a very safe Tory seat, apart from the Independent candidate who lives round the corner and has got her friends and neighbours putting up posters in her street and nearby, I didn’t see a single poster or sign. There’s been 2 leaflets through the door, the Independent and the Labour one. You’d almost not know there is an election coming.

I am considering a trip up to your neck of the woods in the next day or 2 but a couple of miles up the road. It always struck me as your place Tory and further up Labour. But I suspect its Tory till the tower? 
Returned from Norfolk today and lots of big blue signs over there and as for Stafford, relatively huge amount of Labour signs. Makes me feel optimistic. 

[chrisp65]

3 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

I am considering a trip up to your neck of the woods in the next day or 2 but a couple of miles up the road. It always struck me as your place Tory and further up Labour. But I suspect its Tory till the tower? 
Returned from Norfolk today and lots of big blue signs over there and as for Stafford, relatively huge amount of Labour signs. Makes me feel optimistic. 

If you do go up there, you couldn’t keep an eye out for my wallet could you? 
 

[sheepyvillian]

Farrage, the rich "Nick Griffin "!!

[chrisp65]

Austerity 2.0

 

 

 

[Chindie]

12 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Austerity 2.0

 

 

 

You should be **** delighted we're getting such good sensible governance coming.

Shame on you.

[The Fun Factory]

28 minutes ago, sheepyvillian said:

Farrage, the rich "Nick Griffin "!!

In fairness Griffin would have trouble looking Gerrard in the eye