General Election Pre-Thread (4 of 6)

[markavfc40]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

 

It says it all about GB news. People aren't tuning in to be informed they are tuning in to have their views affirmed.

[CarryOnVilla]

12 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I saw George Osbourne make the good point (I know, I know...) that small decisions being made now could also screw up or save their future - if the party machine spends every available penny now on campaigning (which he seems to think that they are), then in the event of a wipe-out there is no money left in the party, not many people left and little prospect of bringing more money or people in. 

Keeping back a bit of the money that looks like it'll just be wasted on a load of Facebook adverts might be the different between them sinking and swimming after the election. 

It would be weird if the tories went out of extinction. 

[bickster]

 

[markavfc40]

This election campaign already seems to be dragging on and we're only just over half way through it. I assume this is the standard length?

I just checked and there are two leaders debates to go, both on BBC. One a Question Time 2 hour special with all the leaders and the other a head to head between Starmer and Sunak. I think compared to past elections interest in these debates is down already, throw in the euros now starting and clashes with games and I'd imagine interest will only get worse. 

Aside from Reform picking up a few % in the polls they have hardly shifted in 3 weeks. I'd be amazed if we see any seismic shifts now and fully expect the final result to be similar to what the polls predicted right at the start of this campaign. 

Edited June 14 by markavfc40

[cyrusr]

Latest prediction from Electoral Calculus

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Current Prediction: Labour majority 272

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	44.7%	376	21.9%	42	80	236
LAB	33.0%	197	41.4%	321	461	504
LIB	11.8%	8	10.8%	34	63	77
Reform	2.1%	0	14.8%	0	1	7
Green	2.8%	1	5.6%	0	2	2
SNP	4.0%	48	3.5%	6	20	38
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.7%	1	3	5
Other	1.1%	0	1.5%	0	2	3
DUP		8			7
SF		7			7
SDLP		2			2
UUP		0			1
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2024 to 13 Jun 2024, sampling 19,426 people. That 1 predicted seat for Reform also appears to be for Mr Farage in Clacton. 

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

Latest prediction from Electoral Calculus

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2024 to 13 Jun 2024, sampling 19,426 people. That 1 predicted seat for Reform also appears to be for Mr Farage in Clacton. 

I'm really not sure the Electoral Calculus model works anymore, I suspect they've never really dialled in such a low Tory share of the vote

I also really think it has to be exceptional, as mentioned previously, that Plaid get 3 MPs, the third seat presumably is Llanelli and they really do have to climb a mountain there

[bickster]

Its the little things...the lies you think will go unnoticed...

 

[MessiWillSignForVilla]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

Its the little things...the lies you think will go unnoticed...

 

It's like the Sky TV thing, of course he didn't have it as a kid, it launched 10 years after he was born, I'll never get these weird lies that politicians (and celebrities in general) say

Edited June 14 by MessiWillSignForVilla

[cyrusr]

21 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'm really not sure the Electoral Calculus model works anymore, I suspect they've never really dialled in such a low Tory share of the vote

I also really think it has to be exceptional, as mentioned previously, that Plaid get 3 MPs, the third seat presumably is Llanelli and they really do have to climb a mountain there

Possibly. I mean we are talking such record lows for the Tories their system may not just handle it anymore. It'll be interesting come the final results just how close the MRPs really are and whether they need to amend their models or not. I don't know enough about the Plaid potentials (apart from what read on this forum from you and @chrisp65) so will trust you on that. 

It will also not be able to fully account for personal popularity of specific candidates either so that's why I thought the Clacton one was interesting as although suspect Reform will do well there (hence Farage sitting) the % seems really high still and I suspect that is more to do with the person rather than the party. 

[bickster]

Thinking out loud moment. I'm wondering if England in the Euros will help or hinder Reform?

I have no real idea, part of me thinks it'll take the attention span of a good chunk of their amoeba like supporters away from the election. Right now there's nothing happening to distract them.

[The Fun Factory]

1 hour ago, markavfc40 said:

It says it all about GB news. People aren't tuning in to be informed they are tuning in to have their views affirmed.

A poundland Fox news. They should not  be given a licence to broadcast on television. I mean It wouldn't stop them talking rubbish online but  what they do is not news in a normal sense.

Edited June 14 by The Fun Factory

[Seat68]

[The Fun Factory]

13 hours ago, sheepyvillian said:

Shout out to Chris Mullin. Now there was a man with integrity. "Error of Judgement," what an eye - opening book.

Though strangely he was a big fan of Blair aka The Man.

[CarryOnVilla]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

I'm really not sure the Electoral Calculus model works anymore, I suspect they've never really dialled in such a low Tory share of the vote

I also really think it has to be exceptional, as mentioned previously, that Plaid get 3 MPs, the third seat presumably is Llanelli and they really do have to climb a mountain there

Llanelli probably never ever go Plaid. 
Labour or far right mindset kind of place 

[bickster]

11 minutes ago, CarryOnVilla said:

Llanelli probably never ever go Plaid. 
Labour or far right mindset kind of place 

Yes exactly, its third on the list of Plaid target seats and the smallest difference on the list between Plaid and the leading Party in a seat (Plaid lead in two)

Hence my assertion that electoral calculus model isn't as good as people think it is. There is no third Plaid Seat in play unless something mental happens

[sheepyvillian]

1 hour ago, The Fun Factory said:

Though strangely he was a big fan of Blair aka The Man.

So was Noel Gallagher. He must look back and cringe. 

[foreveryoung]

Makes me wonder what these guys do when there isn't a general election.

Seem to have all the time in the world to Swan around the country.

 

[The Fun Factory]

1 hour ago, sheepyvillian said:

So was Noel Gallagher. He must look back and cringe. 

But don’t look back in anger, I heard you say

[bickster]

34 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Makes me wonder what these guys do when there isn't a general election.

Seem to have all the time in the world to Swan around the country.

If Carlsberg did incredibly stupid questions...

[sheepyvillian]

20 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

But don’t look back in anger, I heard you say

Not bad