General Election Pre-Thread (3 of 6)

[bickster]

16 minutes ago, DaoDeMings said:

Did anyone ever think that? I haven't seen anything about turnout predictions but my assumption would have been that anti-Tory sentiment being sky-high would get people out. I suppose polls showing a landslide makes people complacent? I get the feeling people are more disillusioned than ever with politics too, given COVID, partygate etc., Truss and Sunak's insane incompetence and Starmer's bland opposition.

Quite a few people on VT expressed that they thought it would be. (Not me)

[DaoDeMings]

4 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

Might be wrong, but I took the poster to mean that a party typically moves to the right once in government. So hypothetically if the Green Party obtained power in this GE, in 2029 they would be a more “conservative” version of what they are in 2024, but probably not as “conservative” as the current government.

I’m no good at this sort of stuff, people are more knowledgeable than me. It comes across like the two (main) groups broadly are -

Labour are the Tories, we are never going to have lefty left party if we keep voting for them, we should vote for the Lefty Left party.

and

Labour are not ideal but better than the tories, at the very least it’s a step in the correct direction (avoiding saying “the right direction”). Maybe some of the more lefty policies will be loved and the general public will consider that at the next election and vote for a party that will offer that.

I voted Labour in the last two general elections (never voted prior to that). Likely to this time too. I’m really just voting the best placed “not the Conservative Party” (or reform). My thinking isn’t really any more nuanced than that.

This is what I meant in my post, haha.

Think you're pretty spot on on your analysis too. Best to vote for a further left option than Labour if it's a safe Labour seat as it pressures Labour to the left and raises awareness of issues that labour are weak on. But it's also probably not worth doing that if it risks getting the Tories in. I change my mind on this a lot, but that's pretty much where I'm at at the moment.

[DaoDeMings]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Quite a few people on VT expressed that they thought it would be. (Not me)

Ah, I didn't see that. Would be interesting to see if there are any predictions from pollsters etc.

[LondonLax]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

If the two main parties are positioned right wing, and centre right. 

Why would a party that wins a landslide victory perceive that as the mandate or request to move left?

I’m genuinely not following that logic. 

That depends entirely on your perspective. You could say the two main parties are positioned central right and central left, if the central ground is the position between the two big alternatives.

From my perspective as an Australian the U.K. two main parties are both to the left of our two main parties, for example.

Then I imagine an American would probably feel the two big U.K. parties are either a choice between the left or the hard left

[bickster]

Just now, DaoDeMings said:

Ah, I didn't see that. Would be interesting to see if there are any predictions from pollsters etc.

I’m sure they’d have the “not voting” data but I'm not sure they’ve ever modelled that data specifically to give an indication of turnout

[DaoDeMings]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

I’m sure they’d have the “not voting” data but I'm not sure they’ve ever modelled that data specifically to give an indication of turnout

I had the same thought - not sure how possible it is to get accurate data on that kind of thing.

[limpid]

I've added another question to the poll. You can change your vote by clicking the "Show vote options" button.

[mjmooney]

47 minutes ago, DaoDeMings said:

Starmer's government is going in on a broadly centre-left platform

No they aren't. If anything, they're centre-right. 

[one_ian_taylor]

4 hours ago, The Fun Factory said:

I have the occasional wobble but Sir John Curtice is a expert in elections said a while back Labour have  a 99% chance of winning. So relax and get a bottle of something nice and cold ready for the big night.

Something cold you say? The corpse of the Tory party?

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, one_ian_taylor said:

Something cold you say? The corpse of the Tory party?

The will be no corpse, this f***er's getting cremated 

[Jareth]

So deputy leaders debate to see what Mourdour does, or international friendly... I'm gonna flick

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Jareth said:

So deputy leaders debate to see what Mourdour does, or international friendly... I'm gonna flick

It’s not a deputy leaders debate, Farage is in it as are other leaders

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

It’s not a deputy leaders debate, Farage is in it as are other leaders

Sooo 2 deputy leaders, a handful of other leaders and an owner of a company...

[bickster]

Just now, Jareth said:

Sooo 2 deputy leaders, a handful of other leaders and an owner of a company...

And Penny Mordor who might as well be some random Tory MP, there is literally no point in being Leader of the House, when there’s no house and Oliver Dowden is the deputy PM, they didn’t even send him (anyone seen him btw? He’s very MIA)

[cyrusr]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

And Penny Mordor who might as well be some random Tory MP, there is literally no point in being Leader of the House, when there’s no house and Oliver Dowden is the deputy PM, they didn’t even send him (anyone seen him btw? He’s very MIA)

Probably the only decision Sunak has got right.

Although he might need to whip him out to look less idiotic. If he does appear you know Sunak is in trouble.

[Davkaus]

I do hope that Penny takes a big sword.

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, Davkaus said:

I do hope that Penny takes a big sword.

I've seen a video where she has before

[CarryOnVilla]

Just now, Davkaus said:

I do hope that Penny takes a big sword.

[DaoDeMings]

57 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

No they aren't. If anything, they're centre-right. 

I would absolutely agree by my own standards.

But the ‘centre’ seems to move to the right year on year so in today’s money I’d still probably put Labour centre-left ish (relative to the rest of the political context)

[sharkyvilla]

I did well to last 10 minutes of that.