General Election Pre-Thread (3 of 6)

[numbersix]

3 hours ago, Nicho said:

Fair enough point. For me times change and I like the honesty of that. The country is **** so have to cut cloth accordingly. 

i actually think policy wise labour can’t do much different to the conservatives in the short to medium but the whole Tory party is in the pits, ran out of steam, pockets too lined and a new government is needed. 

And I like the way Starmer conducts himself and can be ruthless when he needs to be.

they can, they can borrow to invest in public services in the short term and tax unearned wealth of over £10 million in the medium - both will stimulate the economy to the required levels but won't be sanctioned by the corporate bodies that currently fund their political mission, so they won't

[markavfc40]

Sunak is now just a figure of ridicule. If he wasn't such a grade A, self serving, arrogant, incompetent prick, leading an abhorrent party, you could possibly feel a teeny weeny bit sorry for him. As it is **** him. He is going to lead the Tories to the biggest annihilation in their history and I'm enjoying every moment of it.

[chrisp65]

 

I presume these pictures will be on the tee shirt of the Labour rep in this evening’s TV debate.

I presume Penny Mordaunt is spending all day gaming which answers to the inevitable questions are least awful.

Unless she just leaves early?

[The Fun Factory]

On 05/06/2024 at 23:49, Danwichmann said:

I had a nightmare last night that the Tories actually won the election. I dreamt I'd fallen asleep in front of the TV on election night and woke up to see Tories with a huge lead as the counts were coming in, which led to much smashing things up in rage. 

There is absolutely no way the polls could be that far out, is there? I know the polls have sometimes got it wrong in the past, but surely never by that much?

I have the occasional wobble but Sir John Curtice is a expert in elections said a while back Labour have  a 99% chance of winning. So relax and get a bottle of something nice and cold ready for the big night.

[bobzy]

4 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

Basically my thoughts (or maybe hopes)

Starmer is staying very central, and non-comittal, because he knows it will get them elected. Then when they're in power they'll make changes that will take us more to the left.

 

It might be fantasy, but I'm clinging to it

Same - and I don't think it'll be massively hard to shift to the left.  Labour could get in and be centre-right and still be a distance left of where we are currently.

I don't understand abstaining or doing anything other than removing the current government.

[Danwichmann]

1 minute ago, The Fun Factory said:

I have the occasional wobble but Sir John Curtice is a expert in elections said a while back Labour have  a 99% chance of winning. So relax and get a bottle of something nice and cold ready for the big night.

I'll be in China for election so very much day time when the results come in. But I'll definitely have the pop corn ready and hopefully by the time it's declared it'll be late enough to open a bottle of something

[chrisp65]

4 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Same - and I don't think it'll be massively hard to shift to the left.  Labour could get in and be centre-right and still be a distance left of where we are currently.

I don't understand abstaining or doing anything other than removing the current government.

If the two main parties are positioned right wing, and centre right. 

Why would a party that wins a landslide victory perceive that as the mandate or request to move left?

I’m genuinely not following that logic. 

[bobzy]

3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

If the two main parties are positioned right wing, and centre right. 

Why would a party that wins a landslide victory perceive that as the mandate or request to move left?

I’m genuinely not following that logic. 

It wouldn't - I just think it will move that way.

I suppose the simple mandate would be "not this shit".

[chrisp65]

5 minutes ago, bobzy said:

It wouldn't - I just think it will move that way.

I suppose the simple mandate would be "not this shit".

Well, it’s all just opinion, I can’t see why it would just sort of move left from what has been a winning formula, alienating the very voters they’ve been out to win over.

But yeah, I guess its no more or less possible than drifting even further to the right in order to take the middle ground between the reform tories and this new labour.

I guess we’re about to find out.

[DaoDeMings]

Historically, parties only get further to the right after entering government. Opposition becomes stronger over time so the incumbent party gets defensive. You also inevitably get more tied to lobbyists, donors and state actors.

This situation is a little unprecedented with the Tories being so incredibly bad and Labour probably coming in with an extremely large majority, so I wouldn't be surprised if initially we saw a slight shift to the left given Labour will have a bit of a free pass for a while. But long-term there's no reason to think that they'll start moving to the left - if anything, they'll move to the right.

[Chindie]

If you think this Labour party is going to go left, I've a bridge to sell you. 

The only chance of that is if a friendly bomb blows up the cabinet office at some point during a particularly important meeting.

[bickster]

 

[bobzy]

1 hour ago, DaoDeMings said:

Historically, parties only get further to the right after entering government. Opposition becomes stronger over time so the incumbent party gets defensive. You also inevitably get more tied to lobbyists, donors and state actors.

This situation is a little unprecedented with the Tories being so incredibly bad and Labour probably coming in with an extremely large majority, so I wouldn't be surprised if initially we saw a slight shift to the left given Labour will have a bit of a free pass for a while. But long-term there's no reason to think that they'll start moving to the left - if anything, they'll move to the right.

So every government ever has always moved more and more to the right?  We're about to have the "most extreme" right-wing government in history when (if) Labour get in power?

[Stevo985]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

If the two main parties are positioned right wing, and centre right. 

Why would a party that wins a landslide victory perceive that as the mandate or request to move left?

I’m genuinely not following that logic. 

I guess the absolute long shot hope that a party might want to actually run the country successfully rather than just do what gets them the most votes.

And rely on people noticing that things are better and so voting for them again in the future

[mjmooney]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

 

"Shall we do the appointment now? May as well". 

[bickster]

Anyone still think this will be a low turnout election?

[markavfc40]

“We asked 100 people to name something you could do at the D Day commemorations? You said, **** off early”

[DaoDeMings]

55 minutes ago, bobzy said:

So every government ever has always moved more and more to the right?  We're about to have the "most extreme" right-wing government in history when (if) Labour get in power?

No, regardless of the platform they run on, each individual government tends to move to the right once in power. E.g. Starmer's government is going in on a broadly centre-left platform but will likely move more towards the centre. I never said each government is more right wing than the last.

[DaoDeMings]

48 minutes ago, bickster said:

Anyone still think this will be a low turnout election?

Did anyone ever think that? I haven't seen anything about turnout predictions but my assumption would have been that anti-Tory sentiment being sky-high would get people out. I suppose polls showing a landslide makes people complacent? I get the feeling people are more disillusioned than ever with politics too, given COVID, partygate etc., Truss and Sunak's insane incompetence and Starmer's bland opposition.

[Mark Albrighton]

59 minutes ago, bobzy said:

So every government ever has always moved more and more to the right?  We're about to have the "most extreme" right-wing government in history when (if) Labour get in power?

Might be wrong, but I took the poster to mean that a party typically moves to the right once in government. So hypothetically if the Green Party obtained power in this GE, in 2029 they would be a more “conservative” version of what they are in 2024, but probably not as “conservative” as the current government.

I’m no good at this sort of stuff, people are more knowledgeable than me. It comes across like the two (main) groups broadly are -

Labour are the Tories, we are never going to have lefty left party if we keep voting for them, we should vote for the Lefty Left party.

and

Labour are not ideal but better than the tories, at the very least it’s a step in the correct direction (avoiding saying “the right direction”). Maybe some of the more lefty policies will be loved and the general public will consider that at the next election and vote for a party that will offer that.

I voted Labour in the last two general elections (never voted prior to that). Likely to this time too. I’m really just voting the best placed “not the Conservative Party” (or reform). My thinking isn’t really any more nuanced than that.