General Election Pre-Thread (1 of 6)

[Danwichmann]

I'll be voting tactically but I don't know who that will be yet. My seat (Worcestershire West, boundaries unchanged) is interesting. It's been Tory forever with big majorities but electrol calculus has it down as a likely Labour win, Economist as a Tory hold and tactical vote as too close to call between Labour and Lib Dem to recommend anyone. Lib Dems were second last time, but only a couple of % ahead of Labour. I'll be waiting until the last minute I guess to see who is more likely to challenge and hopefully there will be a lot of tactical voting in this seat as it will need to be to gets the bastards out. 

[bickster]

30 minutes ago, Danwichmann said:

I'll be voting tactically but I don't know who that will be yet. My seat (Worcestershire West, boundaries unchanged) is interesting. It's been Tory forever with big majorities but electrol calculus has it down as a likely Labour win, Economist as a Tory hold and tactical vote as too close to call between Labour and Lib Dem to recommend anyone. Lib Dems were second last time, but only a couple of % ahead of Labour. I'll be waiting until the last minute I guess to see who is more likely to challenge and hopefully there will be a lot of tactical voting in this seat as it will need to be to gets the bastards out. 

Indeed, an interesting seat. 2010 and prior it didn't have huge majorities because the LibDems were very strong in second place. 2015 onwards, you are correct huge majorities.

In my opinion book its a 3 way marginal in this election. If it were a by-election I think the LibDems might actually be favourites, in a General Election I think it'll go Labour as the LibDem strategy is to allocate their resources at the most winnable seats. A lot depends on where it is in the LibDem target list (also true for Labour who were 3rd in 2019, just)

It really is a tough seat to call. 

A great indicator seat if its called early on election night but I doubt it will be due to rural factors

 

[Danwichmann]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Indeed, an interesting seat. 2010 and prior it didn't have huge majorities because the LibDems were very strong in second place. 2015 onwards, you are correct huge majorities.

In my opinion book its a 3 way marginal in this election. If it were a by-election I think the LibDems might actually be favourites, in a General Election I think it'll go Labour as the LibDem strategy is to allocate their resources at the most winnable seats. A lot depends on where it is in the LibDem target list (also true for Labour who were 3rd in 2019, just)

It really is a tough seat to call

 

It's not on the Labour target list, they haven't even got a candidate yet and I don't think it's on the Lib Dems either, which seems strange. As you say, Lib Dem used to be the natural challenger in this seat but a lot less clear cut now. Hopefully it will become clearer near the time and the tories don't get let in because the Labour/Lib Dem is split too evenly. 

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Danwichmann said:

It's not on the Labour target list, they haven't even got a candidate yet

Yes they have, its someone called Kash Haroon. Apart from the 5 from the weekend. Labour have very few seats with no candidate and one of those is Abbott's

[Danwichmann]

Just now, bickster said:

Yes they have, its someone called Kash Haroon. Apart from the 5 from the weekend. Labour have very few seats with no candidate and one of those is Abbott's

Oh, that must have been announced very recently as when I was looking yesterday (possibly the day before) they didn't have one. 

[CarryOnVilla]

I’m absolutely blessed with this election. 

I’m in a Tory constituency, where the tactical vote is the Labour candidate. Who so happens to be a real good egg and a well respected local politician, with fans of both sides of the divide. Definitely tipped to get the win here. Only small doubt I have is it’s a university constituency and being a summer election, no students to bump the numbers, but I don’t think they’re needed now 

[Wainy316]

43 minutes ago, Danwichmann said:

I'll be voting tactically but I don't know who that will be yet. My seat (Worcestershire West, boundaries unchanged) is interesting. It's been Tory forever with big majorities but electrol calculus has it down as a likely Labour win, Economist as a Tory hold and tactical vote as too close to call between Labour and Lib Dem to recommend anyone. Lib Dems were second last time, but only a couple of % ahead of Labour. I'll be waiting until the last minute I guess to see who is more likely to challenge and hopefully there will be a lot of tactical voting in this seat as it will need to be to gets the bastards out. 

My seat (Wantage) is similar.  Labour came second in 2017 and Lib Dems in 2019.

Predictably though, both parties are handing out leaflets with made up bar graphs showing them as best place to unseat the incumbent Tory 

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

My seat (Wantage) is similar.  Labour came second in 2017 and Lib Dems in 2019.

Predictably though, both parties are handing out leaflets with made up bar graphs showing them as best place to unseat the incumbent Tory 

Given its geographic location, I'd say that must be on the LibDem target list

Also given the rise in LibDem voters between 2017 and 2019 it clearly has a switchable voter base

Not sure why people are calling that a Labour seat, its a classic LibDem victory, the Caveat to that is that it does have significant boundary changes which I've not looked into yet

[fightoffyour]

Lichfield will be the last bastion of Conservatism in the country I guess

[CarryOnVilla]

1 minute ago, fightoffyour said:

Lichfield will be the last bastion of Conservatism in the country I guess

I don’t know, Cornwall loves shooting its self in the foot by voting blue every time 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Lichfield will be the last bastion of Conservatism in the country I guess

Nowhere near their safest seat these days but I suspect Fabricant is going to be safe but a seat that could shock but probably won't

[_AA_786]

20 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Lichfield will be the last bastion of Conservatism in the country I guess

Sutton Coldfield is generally very Blue

[Seat68]

I have a bet with my mate who is a potential Reform voter, that I think Stafford will remain Tory, he thinks it will go Labour. If I lose I buy him a meal and the Tory MP can scuttle out of the town. So its a win in the end.

[Anthony]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

 Labour have very few seats with no candidate and one of those is Abbott's

*Waves from Hackney North*

[imavillan]

Thought i'd pop in here to see what's happening as I don't normally do politics due to the nature the contentiousness of the subject.

I always vote though and keep my vote between me and the ballot box.

Here's my pennies worth.

The absolute state of British politics and all the respective parties. I don't think the standards have ever been as low as they are today.

imo, we have a choice of shit, shitter, shittier or crap.

It's my only say on the subject have a great day everybody and good night. 

 

PS; I thought long and hard (ooh err Kenneth) before posting this as i'm not intending to light the torch paper and do a runner. (although i am doing a runner). It's just another opinion. 

[stuart_75]

1 hour ago, fightoffyour said:

Lichfield will be the last bastion of Conservatism in the country I guess

 

1 hour ago, _AA_786 said:

Sutton Coldfield is generally very Blue

Bromsgrove here. Javid on his way out, no sign of a new candidate. Its been blue here since the stone age. No idea if Lab or Lib Dem could pull off a miracle.

[ml1dch]

12 minutes ago, stuart_75 said:

 

Bromsgrove here. Javid on his way out, no sign of a new candidate. Its been blue here since the stone age. No idea if Lab or Lib Dem could pull off a miracle.

 

On a knife-edge, but Tories just about predicted to hold it.

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Pred Votes
CON	34,407	63.4%	37.1%
LAB	11,303	20.8%	36.1%
LIB	6,780	12.5%	6.3%
Green	1,781	3.3%	5.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	23,104	42.6%	1.0% Pred Maj

Chance of winning
CON	52%
LAB	47%
LIB	0%
Green	0%
Reform	1%
OTH	0%

[bickster]

Bromsgrove just needs a tactical voting nudge  

[Villatillidie95]

Think it will be a close fight in Nuneaton which is my hometown, used to be quite a solid labour seat but been blue since 2010....mp is a good constituency mp tbf, but the local elections labour won quite a lot of council seats and tories lots overall control of the council. its a bellweather seat so often the way the town votes is reflected in the governing party....i reckon labour will win it though.

In London where I am its going to be labour by a massive majority. one of the quirks of the english election system i suppose, everyone would have been competing for my vote, as they did in 2019, and now nobody will as the result is inevitable

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Villatillidie95 said:

Think it will be a close fight in Nuneaton

I don't see it that way. I see it as a convincing Labour win. Its very much a bellwether seat

If Labour are going to win this election, they'll win Nuneaton convincingly