General Election Pre-Thread (1 of 6)

[bickster]

1 minute ago, CarryOnVilla said:

how do you guys vote, do you vote for the party or do you vote for the candidate?

also, what do you do if you have a conflict that the party you like has a fielded an unlikeable candidate in your constituency or vice verser of a great candidate, but the wrong party?

I’m fortunate that the best candidate in my area is also the party I’d want to win the election. But I’m curious to how would someone choose when theirs a conflict of personal interests? 

Generally speaking party first based on policy but I have not voted for a person before now

Currently I've just been boundary changed from the 4th safest seat in the country (Liverpool Riverside) to the 10th safest (Liverpool Wavertree). On a personal level I don’t like either of the Labour candidates and on a national level I don’t like a good number of Labour policies (but also like a good number of others)

In this election if my seat was a Labour / Tory marginal. I’d vote Labour. Priority number one is to get rid of the Tories but that isn’t the case, so I'm free to go down the policy route.

My number one policy is electoral reform, so as much as I have a lot of problems with the LibDems, I also recognise they are the one party I can look at and say yes, they want electoral reform, so as it stands right now, that’s where my vote will go.

But as with everything that could change but if it does change it will be because the LibDems lost my vote for some reason and in all probability I'll move to a spoilt ballot position unless there’s a fringe candidate I consider is worthy of my vote.

The Greens are Batshit Crazy split personality disorder party and I don’t vote Throbber.

So there’s my current thinking

[bickster]

Oh I've mentioned a few times that the Tories still have 160 seats to fill and why it’s a problem logistically in such a short space of time

This article outlines why it’s a problem having so many MPs standing down in one election and things to consider when selecting those candidates

Quote

The number of MPs who have already announced they are stepping down ahead of the next general election is as high as in 2010. And the departure of so many Conservatives creates a significant electoral headache for Sunak, who is already facing an uphill struggle. Seats where the sitting MP steps down have a history of underperforming for their party at the subsequent general election, compared to seats where the MP has stayed in place.

So a party which is behind in the polls, and already likely to see widespread falls in its vote share, can expect to see even more substantial falls in seats where one of its MPs retires. For some of these seats in 2024, an MP stepping down could be the difference between the Conservatives winning or losing the seat

[…]
.The vulnerability of these seats can come down to the fact that an MP has represented a constituency for a long time and has built up a personal vote among people who might otherwise be lukewarm on their party. Local voters may feel more attached to an MP who is a familiar face with a track record of delivering for the constituency. A new, unproven candidate may make them think twice in the polling booth.

Those who are cabinet ministers or other senior party figures, also bring to their constituency an element of kudos associated with their positions. At a time when a party is unpopular, voters are again less “sticky” if a replacement candidate is on offer rather than a former minister.

[…]

My research has shown that choosing the right candidate to stand is key. They shouldn’t be someone who has already fought a general election somewhere else in the country. A track record of this kind implies that party HQ is keen to get the candidate into Westminster, regardless of whether they know the local area. Counterintuitively, the evidence suggests they also shouldn’t be someone who went to school locally – but we don’t really know why that is. 

Sunak should instead choose someone who has ties to the seat – such as by living there or working there. It should also ideally be someone who has fought and won other elections locally, such as former local councillors, who come with the added bonus of being used to campaigning in the local area and are well-versed on local issues.

[…]

The Conversation

[chrisp65]

I think a form of PR is a very good thing. But the devil can be in the detail. We are having PR here at the next Senedd elections. But its PR based entirely on party lists, which I have a problem with.

It means if you want Labour, you get who ‘Labour’ decide to grant you, not your vote. So, at the moment there was a guy called Chris Elmore who was the Labour candidate for here and was a bit of a pillock. We had a number of disagreements, he was very much a party line repeat what I’ve been told kind of guy. We has one particular disagreement which ended up being quoted by him in a public meeting, whereby he made even more of a prick of himself.

So naturally, there is no way I would vote for that party line fool. With the PR system party list, we get him if we want to vote Labour. Now, that was also the case here under FPTP. But now, even if here doesn’t vote for Labour but somewhere else does, then we get him anyway.

It appears, that if you are a good boy and read out what you are given, you get put high up the party list and you get a nice job. Even if 40,000 in your home town think youre a dick.

Is there a form of PR, that also rewards being less of a party robot?

[Davkaus]

There's a really simple solution to your outlined problem, @chrisp65, which is exactly the same mixed-member PR system that the Senedd has, but you ban people from being a constituency candidate and a party list candidate.

If someone stands to be a consistency representative, they can not also be a member of the party list, so if your constituency rejects a candidate, they don't get into the chamber.

There is exactly how it did work in Wales a decade ago but politicians didn't like that their besties were losing and senior members of the party weren't getting a seat. 

In my ideal world, we'd have that, and also elect the constituency reps via AV.

[mjmooney]

If only it were true. 

[Davkaus]

It's like getting childminder reviews from Gary Glitter.

[blandy]

40 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

If only it were true. 

The dangerous bit is not something to wish for, and isn't true, but the left wing thing, probably is. I mean what's the field?  Sunak, Truss, Bunter, Hammy, May, Brown, Blair, Major, Evil witch. 

So other than Gordon Brown, arguably, he will be.

[ml1dch]

28 minutes ago, blandy said:

The dangerous bit is not something to wish for, and isn't true, but the left wing thing, probably is. I mean what's the field?  Sunak, Truss, Bunter, Hammy, May, Brown, Blair, Major, Evil witch. 

So other than Gordon Brown, arguably, he will be.

Not even that comprehensive list - Johnson (or his headline writer) says Labour PM, so him, Blair and Brown. 

Although obviously he's more left-wing than all the Tory ones too. 

[tonyh29]

19 hours ago, limpid said:

In this election (and this thread is specifically about this election), I'll vote for the candidate most likely to remove the sitting tory.

what if that most likely candidate was the Reform candidate ? 

[limpid]

3 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

what if that most likely candidate was the Reform candidate ? 

It isn't (and this thread is about this election).

[ml1dch]

3 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

what if that most likely candidate was the Reform candidate ? 

I'm pretty sure such a constituency does not exist. 

[markavfc40]

Looking likely this will be the first election where tactical voting will have a decent impact. There is a good size movement behind it now with some high profile figures and more people aware than ever.

If they can keep that going and build on it then it will be a very long time before we'll see a Tory government again, if ever. Of course you could make the argument that right wing parties could so similar in terms of voting tactically but besides a fair chunk of them simply not being clever enough there have only ever been 35-40% of the electorate in this country who vote for right wing parties (Tory, BNP, UKip, National Front,Reform) so there simply wouldn't be enough. 

Add in to the above reducing the voting age then hopefully we are in the last days of Tories ruling us not just in the coming years but full stop. 

Edited May 28 by markavfc40

[markavfc40]

You couldn't make this up could you.

 

[PaulC]

6 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

You couldn't make this up could you.

 

Maybe because of all the cost of living payments they made but there's none more so they are deluded. 

[mjmooney]

27 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

there have only ever been 35-40% of the electorate in this country who vote for right wing parties (Tory, BNP, UKip, National Front,Reform)

'Only'. That is shocking, and depressing. 

[bickster]

51 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I'm pretty sure such a constituency does not exist. 

Closest is probably Boston and Skegness but even that is a three way marginal with Labour in 2nd. But if Reform get an MP its likely to be Tice in that seat

[markavfc40]

5 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

'Only'. That is shocking, and depressing. 

I agree but when I said only it was in relation to my point that there aren't enough people who vote that way to defeat tactical voting by those who oppose right wing parties.

[chrisp65]

Doesn’t the defeat of the right by tactical lefties rather depend on the lefties also getting Labour and its voters to play along? That’s a huge middle third of centrist voters you’re asking to join tactically with left wing voters.

[markavfc40]

2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Doesn’t the defeat of the right by tactical lefties rather depend on the lefties also getting Labour and its voters to play along? That’s a huge middle third of centrist voters you’re asking to join tactically with left wing voters.

It depends if you class Labour as left wing and it doesn't appear to be that now and aside from a relatively brief spell under Corbyn hasn't been that since the days of Kinnock/Foot. It is a centre/centre left party but you aren't asking those slightly further to the right or left (Libs/Greens) to move far. We will certainly see in this election Labour voters vote Lib Dem to defeat the Tories in some constituencies and vice versa in others. 

[rjw63]

46 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

You couldn't make this up could you.

 

Got to be actors on a paid job.