General Election Pre-Thread (1 of 6)

[Villatillidie95]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

I don't see it that way. I see it as a convincing Labour win. Its very much a bellwether seat

If Labour are going to win this election, they'll win Nuneaton convincingly

I feel like the local elections results were low turnout so not quite representative, a lot of the older people will come out in force for the general election and i feel that there is still a lot of support and goodwill toward the local MP....Labour will win it but i dont think it will be a majority in the tens of thousands or anything like that.....not long to find out i suppose

[Wainy316]

1 hour ago, imavillan said:

Thought i'd pop in here to see what's happening as I don't normally do politics due to the nature the contentiousness of the subject.

I always vote though and keep my vote between me and the ballot box.

Here's my pennies worth.

The absolute state of British politics and all the respective parties. I don't think the standards have ever been as low as they are today.

imo, we have a choice of shit, shitter, shittier or crap.

It's my only say on the subject have a great day everybody and good night. 

 

PS; I thought long and hard (ooh err Kenneth) before posting this as i'm not intending to light the torch paper and do a runner. (although i am doing a runner). It's just another opinion. 

As long as you have The Conservatives as 'shittier'

[markavfc40]

 

[MCU]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

 

On a knife-edge, but Tories just about predicted to hold it.

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Pred Votes
CON	34,407	63.4%	37.1%
LAB	11,303	20.8%	36.1%
LIB	6,780	12.5%	6.3%
Green	1,781	3.3%	5.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	23,104	42.6%	1.0% Pred Maj

Chance of winning
CON	52%
LAB	47%
LIB	0%
Green	0%
Reform	1%
OTH	0%

Probably way late to this but thanks for the website. Not sure how accuate it is but gonna be a close call where I am in the Wyre Forest too by the looks

[bickster]

59 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

 

The Tory > LibDem shift is something I expected to see but not quite yet

Survation have had both Lab / Con higher than other pollsters and I suspect their analysis reduces the smaller party’s votes in favour of the larger two parties.  polling this week is going to be interesting to say the least

Also worth noting that the fieldwork started before the National Service policy was announced so some of the respondents won’t have taken that into account

[Xela]

Looks like Sutton Coldfield will be going red based on that website. Will be quite a swing.

[_AA_786]

28 minutes ago, Xela said:

Looks like Sutton Coldfield will be going red based on that website. Will be quite a swing.

The missus is from Sutton and her Dad was harping on about how the area is less reactionary and the Tories would never be removed from Sutton.

I of course won't take any pleasure in pointing out how wrong he is  

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, _AA_786 said:

The missus is from Sutton and her Dad was harping on about how the area is less reactionary and the Tories would never be removed from Sutton.

I of course won't take any pleasure in pointing out how wrong he is  

I'd point out that he doesn’t know what reactionary means

[_AA_786]

14 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'd point out that he doesn’t know what reactionary means

He probably does whereas I clearly had a brain fart and forgot the word reactive existed 

[bickster]

Another poll, again some fieldwork before the National service bombshell

Huge sample!

 

[Demitri_C]

Its not suprising the tories are getting battered at election. Its gonna be like 1997 the writing been on wall for a while.

Whats more suprising is reform look like they will do better than the lib dems and become the uks 3rd biggest party if those polls are correct. 

[ml1dch]

25 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Whats more suprising is reform look like they will do better than the lib dems and become the uks 3rd biggest party if those polls are correct. 

No they won't. By my reckoning they will be the UKs tenth or eleventh largest party.

 

[bickster]

On 27/05/2024 at 17:38, chrisp65 said:

I think a form of PR is a very good thing. But the devil can be in the detail. We are having PR here at the next Senedd elections. But its PR based entirely on party lists, which I have a problem with.

It means if you want Labour, you get who ‘Labour’ decide to grant you, not your vote. So, at the moment there was a guy called Chris Elmore who was the Labour candidate for here and was a bit of a pillock. We had a number of disagreements, he was very much a party line repeat what I’ve been told kind of guy. We has one particular disagreement which ended up being quoted by him in a public meeting, whereby he made even more of a prick of himself.

So naturally, there is no way I would vote for that party line fool. With the PR system party list, we get him if we want to vote Labour. Now, that was also the case here under FPTP. But now, even if here doesn’t vote for Labour but somewhere else does, then we get him anyway.

It appears, that if you are a good boy and read out what you are given, you get put high up the party list and you get a nice job. Even if 40,000 in your home town think youre a dick.

Is there a form of PR, that also rewards being less of a party robot?

I spotted this which may be of interest to you. Not an endorsement from me but it is an interesting idea. It definitely has its flaws

 

[Mark Albrighton]

Quote

The Labour Party has extended its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News.

One week into the race for Number 10, Labour is 27 points ahead of the Tories - erasing a small drop in the lead recorded at the end of last week.

The Great Britain poll - conducted on Monday and Tuesday this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the Liberal Democrats on 9% and Greens on 7%.

Sky news link

[bickster]

25 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

Sky news link

And if you put that in EC you get a wild wild result with Tories getting fewer seats than the LibDems but they have a 20% share of vote compared to 9% with LibDems.

If the election does pan out like this FPTP becomes indefensible  

[OutByEaster?]

It makes me sad that in a time when the Tories are going to get the biggest kicking at the ballot box they've ever had, that I live in a Conservative seat so safe that it's still completely unlikely that anyone else will win. 

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

It makes me sad that in a time when the Tories are going to get the biggest kicking at the ballot box they've ever had, that I live in a Conservative seat so safe that it's still completely unlikely that anyone else will win. 

When did you move to Norfolk?

[limpid]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

When did you move to Norfolk?

He got the early morning slot on North Norfolk Digital.

[OutByEaster?]

[markavfc40]

Tories can't even count on the over 50's anymore.