Race for The Premier League - 2024/25

[duke313]

It's worth adding all these "pundits" are biased.  Carragher and Neville both had Chelsea and United in top 5 last season, look how that turned out.

[CVByrne]

I'd be confident on PL getting the extra CL place. Then if Spurs or United win the Europa League and also come 5th then that extra place goes to 6th.

Then surely City get punished and possibly Chelsea too meaning more chance for CL. Even then there should be places for Europa League a competition I'd happy play in next season. One we could go very deep in and even win. 

[It's Your Round]

It suits us to be written off and downplayed by the media and other fans, it means we’re the underdog, fighting against the odds. That’s what the best Aston Villa teams have harnessed, and what Unai Emery is so good at. So carry on underestimating Villa because if and when we do it again, it will be even sweeter. 

[rodders129]

14 hours ago, ender4 said:

But as Bobzy pointed out above, apart from the real big 3, none of the other teams have recently qualified for Champions League two seasons in a row - that includes Man United, Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle.  

We would have to do something spectacular to get 4th twice in a row, better than those 4 teams could manage.

For me it’s immaterial what others have done. We’re in our own unique situation with Emery…just look at how many Villa ‘curses’ he’s broken.

We won fifteen home games in a row with Unai How many of those teams did that on the way to UCL qualification?

Our manager has a proven track record of success in top leagues and European football. 

We’re writing our own unique and successful chapters now. I don’t give a fig what others have done in recent history, it has no bearing.

 

[Daveburnside]

We'll be top after 10 games.

[duke313]

I think we'll hit the 70 point mark this season, were so close last season.

[turvontour]

52 minutes ago, rodders129 said:

I’m not forgetting anything and I’m not forming my opinion passively or hopefully coming across as entitled. Make no mistake it’s an enormous achievement and frankly wherever we finish this season Unai has my full support.

Im just looking at a team who have amassed the 4th most premier league points since Emery took charge. I’m seeing a squad that’s been strengthened vs last year. I’m seeing the return of key players from injury as well as another year gone to bed in experience of the league, European football and Unai’s methods.

Given all this as well as the intensity and desire of the manager I just don’t see us going backwards in the league. That’s before you even look at the competition who I’m not so sure are getting stronger:

- Liverpool no signings and the loss of Klopp

- Spurs no tactical evolution and an intransigent manager refusing to train set pieces

- Man U more Ten Hag and dubious signings

- Chelsea bloated squad and unproven manager 

I personally think Newcastle will h come back strong this season and their style will benefit from no European football.

Please don’t take my confidence in Unai and the squad as entitlement. I just haven’t succumb to football fan fatalism. Just calling it as I see it

Re media bias, did you see MNF predictions? I agree Villa aren’t being slated but they are consistently being underestimated vs the ‘big six’

There is still very much this feeling from the media that last season was some sort of lucky run for Villa.

I honestly still don't think that they appreciate that this is by design.

That it hasn't been a structured, systematic movement to this area of league position across multiple years. 

[bobzy]

41 minutes ago, rodders129 said:

I’m not forgetting anything and I’m not forming my opinion passively or hopefully coming across as entitled. Make no mistake it’s an enormous achievement and frankly wherever we finish this season Unai has my full support.

Im just looking at a team who have amassed the 4th most premier league points since Emery took charge. I’m seeing a squad that’s been strengthened vs last year. I’m seeing the return of key players from injury as well as another year gone to bed in experience of the league, European football and Unai’s methods.

Given all this as well as the intensity and desire of the manager I just don’t see us going backwards in the league. That’s before you even look at the competition who I’m not so sure are getting stronger:

- Liverpool no signings and the loss of Klopp

- Spurs no tactical evolution and an intransigent manager refusing to train set pieces

- Man U more Ten Hag and dubious signings

- Chelsea bloated squad and unproven manager 

I personally think Newcastle will h come back strong this season and their style will benefit from no European football.

Please don’t take my confidence in Unai and the squad as entitlement. I just haven’t succumb to football fan fatalism. Just calling it as I see it

Re media bias, did you see MNF predictions? I agree Villa aren’t being slated but they are consistently being underestimated vs the ‘big six’

Good reply, and some well made points here.

I agree with your view on Newcastle though actually think Chelsea will do pretty well - they've got a lot of talent even if an unproven manager and looked decent against Man City IMO, despite getting nothing from the game.  I also think Man Utd will improve this season in terms of how they play... whether that translates to a higher league position, who knows.

All well and good looking at Emery's points amassing, but the actual form at the end of last season wasn't particularly great.  Taking an arbitrary position of the last 10 games - still a good chunk of the season! - we were 11th in the form table with 13 points; joint with Spurs and Man Utd FWIW.  Chelsea took 21 points, Newcastle 20 and Liverpool (who probably finish above us anyway) 18. It isn't really an indicator of much because our early season form was unbelievable - and maybe it only highlighted the need for squad depth more than anything else - but the most recent form we have in the league isn't top 4 stuff.  We still conceded 61 goals in the season - more than Man Utd, the same as Spurs, 1 fewer than Newcastle (who scored 9 more than us) and 2 fewer than Chelsea who most people have/had down as a laughing stock.  These are really, really tight margins.

Then, as I said before, you mix in a lot of squad changes this season.  The good news is that our first eleven is largely untouched so there's a great deal of familiarity in what should be our strongest side - but upheaval is rarely a good thing and you can look at pretty much every side which has made wholesale changes as evidence of this.

Personally, I think Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool just have stronger sides than the rest of the league and will finish in the top 3 positions.  I don't know if you agree with this or not.  After that, you've got us, Newcastle, Chelsea, Spurs and Man Utd all basically vying for 4th place with possible outsiders Brighton IMO.  Even if you think that Villa are particularly stronger than those clubs (I think it's pretty close in different areas but we have a better squad now than last season), it's largely a toss up as to who gets there and a lack of European football for Newcastle is a big advantage; you could possibly say the UCL for Chelsea is an advantage too as they should be able to rotate heavily particularly given their squad size of 1,000 players.

I'm incredibly confident in Emery and this team and the testament to that is that we're absolutely in the running to finish top 4 for a second season in a row.  To bring home the magnitude of that, we've finished top 4 in the Premier League 3 times since it's inception (33 seasons) - 2nd in 1992/93, 4th in 1995/96 and 4th last season.  Everyone talks about an unfair advantage in being seated as a "big 6" club due to the financial strength of those sides and that battle is still against us.  We've got an absolutely fantastic chance to cement ourselves as a genuine big boy in European football which I don't think has ever been the case (I might be wrong; I wasn't around in the early 80's so don't know how we were perceived when we won the European Cup) and we're looking to do that in arguably the toughest era to do so.

That doesn't mean pundits will suddenly be predicting Villa as a top 4 side.  Some will, most won't - and that's still an improvement on how things would have been at the start of last season.  Our own forum agrees with this.  It isn't a knock on Villa or Emery or anything, it's just the "likelihood" given the wealth of evidence over however many seasons of 'outside' teams not being able to consistently close that gap.  It isn't media bias - it's just how football has been for a long time and is probably getting worse in this regard.  But we're in with a good chance and that's absolutely incredible.  It's a phenomenal time to be a Villa fan.

 

(I don't have Sky Sports so didn't see MNF, but those guys aren't really pundits - it's more entertainment with deep-seated bias in place.  The same as, say, Micah Richards' views - they're often just cliché soundbites, but he's a good guy and gets a laugh at his expense sometimes so he'll be kept on).

[CVByrne]

12 minutes ago, turvontour said:

There is still very much this feeling from the media that last season was some sort of lucky run for Villa.

I honestly still don't think that they appreciate that this is by design.

That it hasn't been a structured, systematic movement to this area of league position across multiple years. 

Two things, 1) we fell over the line and were out on our feet. Only the fact Spurs were worse did we manage 4th. 2) Then you add to that Champions League and the difficulty of teams qualifying for it back to back, Spurs struggle, Newcastle did, United etc.. 

Lots of sound reasons to say we won't make top 4 again. I don't think we will. 5th to 7th is where I think 

Edited August 20 by CVByrne

[Chicken Field]

I am so excited about this season and feel we have a good chance of back to back champions league, as a lot of the teams expected to finish above us have issues this season. I do though think that 6th spot would be a massive achievement - juggling the premier league and champions league is not comparable to juggling the premier league and conference league. 

7th, 4th, 6th would be massive given the 15 or so years prior

[Stephen_Evans]

21 minutes ago, turvontour said:

There is still very much this feeling from the media that last season was some sort of lucky run for Villa.

I honestly still don't think that they appreciate that this is by design.

That it hasn't been a structured, systematic movement to this area of league position across multiple years. 

Exactly, the PPG ratio has been pretty consistent since November 2022.  This isn’t a lucky run.

[turvontour]

7 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Two things, 1) we fell over the line and were out on our feet. Only the fact Spurs were worse did we manage 4th. 2) Then you add to that Champions League and the difficulty of teams qualifying for it back to back, Spurs struggle, Newcastle did, United etc.. 

Lots of sound reasons to say we won't make top 4 again. I don't think we will. 5th to 7th is where I think 

Yes that's fine. It's the other side of the argument.

My counter would be that we were basically top at Christmas, having played 8 european games to that point. Injuries, lack of depth and staying in Europe until May meant we couldn't sustain it. 4th was not actually a good outcome based on the season.

To address the above, we have lost about 4 players we would be happy to play in most games and replaced with about 9 we would be happy to play in most games including injuries within this. That's hugely significant. 

But sorry my point isn't why I think we'll finish 3rd or 4th and why others might think we'll finish 8th.

My point is that our story and broader execution of our plan isn't as prominent as others, it's completely under the radar. It's the opposite of Newcastle. Newcastle was like charging into a bank with machine guns, shooting your way to the vault. While we've tunnelled under. 

Like it's suddenly a coincidence that we have one of the best managers, directors, strikers, goalkeepers etc. 

[rubberman]

Barring points deductions (which may very well play a part), city and Arsenal are a level above. We are in the mix with probably only 5 others for 3rd to 8th. All will be inconsistent at times and injuries etc will play a part. Hopefully our improved squad depth will help, but matching our home form of LY's first half of the season is realistically unlikely, so we will need a stronger end to the season. Kamara coming back will really help. 

Can see us anywhere from 3rd to 8th, but given the turmoil elsewhere pretty confident that top 6 should be the target. 

[rodders129]

31 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Good reply, and some well made points here.

I agree with your view on Newcastle though actually think Chelsea will do pretty well - they've got a lot of talent even if an unproven manager and looked decent against Man City IMO, despite getting nothing from the game.  I also think Man Utd will improve this season in terms of how they play... whether that translates to a higher league position, who knows.

All well and good looking at Emery's points amassing, but the actual form at the end of last season wasn't particularly great.  Taking an arbitrary position of the last 10 games - still a good chunk of the season! - we were 11th in the form table with 13 points; joint with Spurs and Man Utd FWIW.  Chelsea took 21 points, Newcastle 20 and Liverpool (who probably finish above us anyway) 18. It isn't really an indicator of much because our early season form was unbelievable - and maybe it only highlighted the need for squad depth more than anything else - but the most recent form we have in the league isn't top 4 stuff.  We still conceded 61 goals in the season - more than Man Utd, the same as Spurs, 1 fewer than Newcastle (who scored 9 more than us) and 2 fewer than Chelsea who most people have/had down as a laughing stock.  These are really, really tight margins.

Then, as I said before, you mix in a lot of squad changes this season.  The good news is that our first eleven is largely untouched so there's a great deal of familiarity in what should be our strongest side - but upheaval is rarely a good thing and you can look at pretty much every side which has made wholesale changes as evidence of this.

Personally, I think Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool just have stronger sides than the rest of the league and will finish in the top 3 positions.  I don't know if you agree with this or not.  After that, you've got us, Newcastle, Chelsea, Spurs and Man Utd all basically vying for 4th place with possible outsiders Brighton IMO.  Even if you think that Villa are particularly stronger than those clubs (I think it's pretty close in different areas but we have a better squad now than last season), it's largely a toss up as to who gets there and a lack of European football for Newcastle is a big advantage; you could possibly say the UCL for Chelsea is an advantage too as they should be able to rotate heavily particularly given their squad size of 1,000 players.

I'm incredibly confident in Emery and this team and the testament to that is that we're absolutely in the running to finish top 4 for a second season in a row.  To bring home the magnitude of that, we've finished top 4 in the Premier League 3 times since it's inception (33 seasons) - 2nd in 1992/93, 4th in 1995/96 and 4th last season.  Everyone talks about an unfair advantage in being seated as a "big 6" club due to the financial strength of those sides and that battle is still against us.  We've got an absolutely fantastic chance to cement ourselves as a genuine big boy in European football which I don't think has ever been the case (I might be wrong; I wasn't around in the early 80's so don't know how we were perceived when we won the European Cup) and we're looking to do that in arguably the toughest era to do so.

That doesn't mean pundits will suddenly be predicting Villa as a top 4 side.  Some will, most won't - and that's still an improvement on how things would have been at the start of last season.  Our own forum agrees with this.  It isn't a knock on Villa or Emery or anything, it's just the "likelihood" given the wealth of evidence over however many seasons of 'outside' teams not being able to consistently close that gap.  It isn't media bias - it's just how football has been for a long time and is probably getting worse in this regard.  But we're in with a good chance and that's absolutely incredible.  It's a phenomenal time to be a Villa fan.

 

(I don't have Sky Sports so didn't see MNF, but those guys aren't really pundits - it's more entertainment with deep-seated bias in place.  The same as, say, Micah Richards' views - they're often just cliché soundbites, but he's a good guy and gets a laugh at his expense sometimes so he'll be kept on).

Nice one Bobzy.

Intersting question re strength of team vs top 3 last season. I guess it depends whether we’re talking a one off game or consistency of squad over a season.

I mean, we topped the top 6 mini league didn’t we? I guess that means on our day we actually have the best team Obviously consistency is a key factor to being the best over a season though and that’s what wins the trophy. 

I look at our first eleven and think, we’ve got a top 4 GK (arguably the best), a top 2 CF, the best ball playing CB in the league, a top 4 midfield pivot, and then players like Bailey, Rogers, Ramsey, Maatsen who would get into most teams. We’ve got arguably the best tactical manager as well. It’s an incredibly strong proposition. The only piece missing is probably that standout, worlds best type player (Salah, KDB, etc)

[bobzy]

13 minutes ago, rodders129 said:

Nice one Bobzy.

Intersting question re strength of team vs top 3 last season. I guess it depends whether we’re talking a one off game or consistency of squad over a season.

I mean, we topped the top 6 mini league didn’t we? I guess that means on our day we actually have the best team Obviously consistency is a key factor to being the best over a season though and that’s what wins the trophy. 

I look at our first eleven and think, we’ve got a top 4 GK (arguably the best), a top 2 CF, the best ball playing CB in the league, a top 4 midfield pivot, and then players like Bailey, Rogers, Ramsey, Maatsen who would get into most teams. We’ve got arguably the best tactical manager as well. It’s an incredibly strong proposition. The only piece missing is probably that standout, worlds best type player (Salah, KDB, etc)

I think there's a few players in the sides we're competing with who you could argue are better than similar players we have, but we've absolutely improved our side massively.  My Villa bias wouldn't be able to say that I'd rather <x> over who we have, but the same will be true of other clubs (i.e: I doubt Newcastle fans would swap Isak for Watkins; we'd be vice-versa, Chelsea fans wouldn't swap Palmer, Man Utd fans wouldn't swap Fernandes, Spurs fans wouldn't swap... nah, they probably would ).

That alone is amazing.

[HeroesAndVillans]

The media don't back us. Supporters from other clubs don't back us. That's fine, I feel like it's always been that way for AVFC. We back ourselves, we back our boys, and that's all that matters.

I think we'll qualify for the UCL again and possibly even find ourselves in the title fight for part of the season. What a time we live in.

[PaulC]

Carragher has us 6th which is fair enough but Neville not having is in the top 7 after watching the weekend games is strange..None of it matters anyway.

[villa89]

40 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Carragher has us 6th which is fair enough but Neville not having is in the top 7 after watching the weekend games is strange..None of it matters anyway.

It's not really. We've 8 CL games to play this season and I know we had conference league last year but this is a different ball game altogether. It won't be any surprise if our league form suffers as a result. I would think we are in the mix with Spurs & Liverpool for 3rd fourth but Man Utd/, Chelsea and maybe Newcastle could all finish above us.  For sure it will be an interesting chase for the top four places this season. 

[maqroll]

A significant points reduction for Los Plasticos will make a huge difference come next May..

We know we can beat Arse and Plop...

Can we sustain runs of form?

[Kiwivillan]

4th is pessimistic. This is our year