Race for The Premier League - 2024/25

[VillaChris]

9 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

This time last season in terms of in the squad we've lost Luiz Diaby Chambers basically and added Rogers Onana Maatsen SIJ Barkley Barrenechea Kosta Buendia. How are we not stronger?

Diaby hasn't been replaced so we've lost an experienced CL starter with a lad we know well from Hull so big ask for him to step up straight away.

Lenglet also hasn't been replaced so we're down to three CBs and one of them is leaving for Fulham imminently. 

We have endless CMs and left sided players at least but team selection for Saturday would be interesting if Konsa and Bailey picked up knocks in training and Ollie also injured from not featuring in pre season so we are still short in the key positions compared to last year.

[tomsky_11]

2023-24 Predictions:

1st: Manchester City – 88.81 (actual 1st 91)
2nd: Arsenal – 72.23 (actual 2nd 89)
3rd: Liverpool – 71.47 (actual 3rd 82)
4th: Manchester United – 68.49 (actual 8th 60)
5th: Newcastle United – 61.23 (actual 7th 60)
6th: Chelsea – 58.90 (actual 6th 63)
7th: Brighton & Hove Albion – 57.51 (actual 11th 48)
8th: Tottenham Hotspur – 56.20 (actual 5th 66)
9th: Aston Villa – 55.38 (actual 4th 68)
10th: Brentford – 53.20 (actual 16th 39)

2024-25 Predictions:

1st: Manchester City – 88.7
2nd: Arsenal – 77.6
3rd: Liverpool – 74.0
4th: Chelsea – 61.7
5th: Newcastle United – 60.5
6th: Manchester United – 58.5
7th: Tottenham Hotspur – 58.2
8th: Aston Villa – 54.1
9th: Crystal Palace – 52.7
10th: West Ham United – 49.1

[Kiwivillan]

1 hour ago, VillaChris said:

would be interesting if Konsa and Bailey picked up knocks in training and Ollie also injured

Yes very interesting. Let's petition PL and UEFA to allow bigger squad sizes and completely ignore PSR whilst we're at it. 

Honestly we should change club motto from "Prepared" to "See, I Told You We Would Fail!"

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, VillaChris said:

Diaby hasn't been replaced so we've lost an experienced CL starter with a lad we know well from Hull so big ask for him to step up straight away.

Diaby mostly played as a second striker. I doubt Philogene will be taking the same role and rumours would suggest we are actively trying to sign a player that could fill this role. And, however experienced Diaby was, I don't think his goal and assist contributions are irreplaceable.

2 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Lenglet also hasn't been replaced so we're down to three CBs and one of them is leaving for Fulham imminently. 

Mings is apparently not far off a return so should make up for the loss of Lenglet. I'd expect if Mings wasn't due to return we'd be looking to bring someone else in. Add to this, we averaged only 1.29ppg and over 2 goals conceded per game when Lenglet started (14 games) so doesn't look like a major loss. I'm sure our record with Mings in the side was substantially better.

2 hours ago, VillaChris said:

We have endless CMs

We have the right amount of CMs. Two pivot positions and we have two players for each as it stands: Onana, Enzo, Barkley, Tielemans

McGinn is better suited to playing further forward, so having enough CMs to cover allows for this to happen more regularly with John needing to fill in deeper. Kamara returning may allow Tielemans the same also.

2 hours ago, VillaChris said:

team selection for Saturday would be interesting if Konsa and Bailey picked up knocks in training and Ollie also injured from not featuring in pre season

I'd imagine we'd see Carlos, his replacement or maybe Bogarde in for Konsa, and any of McGinn, Buendia or Philogene cover for Bailey. Ollie is the only big issue here. I guess we'd have to either play Archer, maybe Duran or Rogers in Ollies place. But I expect we'll see some cover for Ollie arrive before the window shuts, assuming Duran leaves.

[fightoffyour]

8 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

2023-24 Predictions:

1st: Manchester City – 88.81 (actual 1st 91)
2nd: Arsenal – 72.23 (actual 2nd 89)
3rd: Liverpool – 71.47 (actual 3rd 82)
4th: Manchester United – 68.49 (actual 8th 60)
5th: Newcastle United – 61.23 (actual 7th 60)
6th: Chelsea – 58.90 (actual 6th 63)
7th: Brighton & Hove Albion – 57.51 (actual 11th 48)
8th: Tottenham Hotspur – 56.20 (actual 5th 66)
9th: Aston Villa – 55.38 (actual 4th 68)
10th: Brentford – 53.20 (actual 16th 39)

2024-25 Predictions:

1st: Manchester City – 88.7
2nd: Arsenal – 77.6
3rd: Liverpool – 74.0
4th: Chelsea – 61.7
5th: Newcastle United – 60.5
6th: Manchester United – 58.5
7th: Tottenham Hotspur – 58.2
8th: Aston Villa – 54.1
9th: Crystal Palace – 52.7
10th: West Ham United – 49.1

I Opt Out

[M_Afro]

9 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

2023-24 Predictions:

1st: Manchester City – 88.81 (actual 1st 91)
2nd: Arsenal – 72.23 (actual 2nd 89)
3rd: Liverpool – 71.47 (actual 3rd 82)
4th: Manchester United – 68.49 (actual 8th 60)
5th: Newcastle United – 61.23 (actual 7th 60)
6th: Chelsea – 58.90 (actual 6th 63)
7th: Brighton & Hove Albion – 57.51 (actual 11th 48)
8th: Tottenham Hotspur – 56.20 (actual 5th 66)
9th: Aston Villa – 55.38 (actual 4th 68)
10th: Brentford – 53.20 (actual 16th 39)

2024-25 Predictions:

1st: Manchester City – 88.7
2nd: Arsenal – 77.6
3rd: Liverpool – 74.0
4th: Chelsea – 61.7
5th: Newcastle United – 60.5
6th: Manchester United – 58.5
7th: Tottenham Hotspur – 58.2
8th: Aston Villa – 54.1
9th: Crystal Palace – 52.7
10th: West Ham United – 49.1

I think that if you look at the squad’s then the above is right. You can re-organise 5/6/7 but really all of those 7 teams above us have stronger squads. 
What the above doesn’t account for is other important factors. Liverpool and Chelsea have new managers. Our manager is better than all others apart from Pep. You then have the things that can’t be predicted like injuries, form, luck, poor decisions etc.

I am certain that it will be incredibly hard for Villa to replicate their fourth place finish. We might do it. We might do even better but on the balance of probability we are more likely to finish in a lower position than last season. I think we will finish seventh.

[cb_82]

Personal opinion is we need to have realism over this season, we are not suddenly a top 4 club because of last season as for as good as we were alot aligned for us to 

 

If we can have good cup runs and again secure European football in say 7th while keeping the PSR books in check it will allow us to have a more settled summer and go again (Lambert lol) 

[PaulC]

10 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

This time last season in terms of in the squad we've lost Luiz Diaby Chambers basically and added Rogers Onana Maatsen SIJ Barkley Barrenechea Kosta Buendia. How are we not stronger?

In terms of numbers yes but the first team without Kamara, Luiz and Diaby feels a little wesker to be but hopefully we make a couple of additions to rectify that 

[duke313]

11 hours ago, Enda said:

Opta predict us coming 8th, with about a 1-in-7 chance of Top 4.

More likely to be bottom half than Top 4 if you believe them.

Mighty West Ham only 10th? Can't be right, surely?

[Kiwivillan]

1 minute ago, PaulC said:

In terms of numbers yes but the first team without Kamara, Luiz and Diaby feels a little wesker to be but hopefully we make a couple of additions to rectify that 

We finished 4th with Kamara out long before season ended. Onana looks a real improvement on the starting XI

[Kiwivillan]

Just now, duke313 said:

Mighty West Ham only 10th? Can't be right, surely?

Best transfer window according to VT

[PaulC]

Just now, Kiwivillan said:

We finished 4th with Kamara out long before season ended. Onana looks a real improvement on the starting XI

But our form dipped massively when he wasn't in the team. I'm talking right now with players fit and available our first team was stronger last year. Onana hopefully will improve us. 

[Kiwivillan]

12 minutes ago, PaulC said:

But our form dipped massively when he wasn't in the team. 

That's false. We won next 3 games when Kamara got injured. Only lost to Spurs Man City Brighton then on the beach with 4th secured against Palace. We did more than enough than Spurs to secure 4th while playing Conference games 

[Lichfield Dean]

11 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Based on betting odds (most have us 7th-8th) and their own "power rankings" which are ELO based. I assume maybe results in calendar year don't help with our power ranking, especially the 5-0 Palace dead rubber and the Olympiacos games as well maybe, while Chelsea possibly overstated by form under Poch who has now gone, Newcastle and Man Utd by better late season form as well when had no European football.

If you look at the detail of the simulations they have us getting 54 points, quite a way off our league record to date under Emery which would have us get 71 points if maintained.

Also, that's about a 1-in-14 chance they've got us for top 4 isn't it? 7.3%

Nah, Roy Wood doesn't have a clue about anything these days.

[JPAngel]

38 minutes ago, PaulC said:

But our form dipped massively when he wasn't in the team. I'm talking right now with players fit and available our first team was stronger last year. Onana hopefully will improve us. 

Despite winning the next 3 games after his injury, our form dipped after that point because our threadbare squad were out on their feet. We had no depth and that's exactly what we've addressed this summer.

Edited August 13 by JPAngel

[Enda]

12 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

 

Also, that's about a 1-in-14 chance they've got us for top 4 isn't it? 7.3%

Whoops yes, 1-in-14 not 1-in-7.

Smaller odds than rolling double sixes.

IMHO Opta are under-playing us a bit. They are a statistical modelling firm, and thus make their predictions on statistical averages.

But, for example, we have the best keeper in the world, so we should concede fewer goals than expected on average. Similarly we have one of the best managers in the world, who will get more out of a player than an average manager would.

I think 8th is a bit too pessimistic. Maybe 6th. We’ll need to rein our necks in a bit if/when people complain about us missing out on CL. Coming 6th would be our second best season in 15-20 years.

[CVByrne]

We do have a good chance at getting CL again this season. 

I think the makeup of the teams in Europe will get more co-efficient points as no teams dropping down between competitions and the Newcastle/United being dumped out of Europe in group stages won't happen. We've the 3 big boys on the CL (and Us) and we've Spurs, United and Chelsea (with their huge squad) in the other competitions. So the 5th place has a big chance of coming to PL

Then you add in City there is every chance they are relegated for their cheating. Even if they aren't I can imagine at least a monster points deduction for the season. So we could be points wise good enough for 6th and then get CL. 

[duke313]

How many points from our first 4?

West Ham (a) - 1
Arsenal  (h) - 0
Leicester (a) - 3
Everton (h) - 3

7 would be a decent start.
 

Edited August 13 by duke313

[stewiek2]

6 minutes ago, duke313 said:

How many points from our first 4?

West Ham (a) - 1
Arsenal  (h) - 0
Leicester (a) - 3
Everton (h) - 3

7 would be a decent start.
 

12. We're winning the quadruple. In Don Unai we trust.

[VillaTO]

6 minutes ago, duke313 said:

How many points from our first 4?

West Ham (a) - 1
Arsenal  (a) - 0
Leicester (a) - 3
Everton (h) - 3

7 would be a decent start.
 

7 would be a good start. I would take 6 to be honest, I feel it might take a while to get goong this year, between the internationals returning late, and the new signing.