Race for The Premier League - 2024/25

[VillaChris]

2 minutes ago, Spoony said:

I would say I think the loss of Dougie is overplayed. He was phenomenal first half of season. Second half he was at times a liability. Don’t get me wrong he’s a baller but in his time at Villa you can narrow down his good times to about 1 year of football. 
 

edit: one year of good football is hyperbole and the wrong thing to say, but I do think there’s some revisionism around his time at Villa. First couple of seasons we’d have been happy getting our money back and when he hit his stride he was hot and cold. He was a £60m footballer for about a year in total I’d say. 

The partnership with Kamara was quality though for pretty much all of 2023. No surprise Luiz dipped when Kamara injured himself.

We've in effective lost two players as Kamara will take a few months to get back fully up to speed.

The safe option would've probably been to have McGinn-Tielemans infront of the defence as they did a great job at Arsenal when we needed it and were also good v high pressing Bournemouth but we've signed Onana for a huge fee so he has to start and Tielemans will likely pick up knocks. Barrenechea will likely take a season to fully get up to the level we want him to be.

Transitional season it probably is going to be, can see us turning in some quality CL performances and then being flat for the following premier league fixture. Tolerable if we have a good league/FA Cup run.

[punkiller1981]

At the moment I’m frustrated because we are heading into our first champions league season and the business we have done seems underwhelming to this point. I have full faith in unai and monchi and I know we have to tread carefully with PSR but I thought the champions league would give us a chance to add some really superstar quality to our ranks but so far we have added Ross Barkley, a left back albeit a very good one, Onana who I like but don’t see doing the same job as dougie and brought back two lads we let go last year. I’m not inspired so far and I think the one spot we really need to fill with some quality is behind Watkins, clearly we are interested in felix but I’m struggling to see it happening. 
 

in terms of the league I think we could be anywhere from 6-10 given the likes of West Ham are really improving there squad significantly. I don’t see us getting top 4, last season we were exceptional and I just don’t see us being able sustain it as well as play 8 champions league games. Hopefully we can get higher than I’m expecting and spend some decent money next summer to raise the quality levels again but my fear is that the likes of emi and Watkins play champions league and then want to leave next year to play in it again. 
 

final thought and it doesn’t really belong here but I read Keith weyness saying we should sell Duran for £20 million. Apparently he runs an elite football club consultancy business! With advice like that I’m sure he is overwhelmed with work. 

[Captain_Townsend]

Luiz was extremely comfortable receiving the ball at the back and coming out with it. He was great at getting us going. He is a bigger loss than people realise. Kamara and him was as good a central midfield pairing as you could ask for. It was quality.

Onana is a great signing for sure. But as of right now our midfield is weaker than this time last year amd we hope Kamara comes back the same player he was prior to the Injury.

This also applies to Buendia and Mings we hope they return from a year out and can slot back in.

Edited August 11 by Captain_Townsend

[AVTuco]

9 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

Onana and Maatsen is 2 starters. Buendia back from injury another

If Buendia is a starter we'll be in big trouble.

[AVTuco]

8 hours ago, Spoony said:

I would say I think the loss of Dougie is overplayed. He was phenomenal first half of season. Second half he was at times a liability. Don’t get me wrong he’s a baller but in his time at Villa you can narrow down his good times to about 1 year of football. 
 

edit: one year of good football is hyperbole and the wrong thing to say, but I do think there’s some revisionism around his time at Villa. First couple of seasons we’d have been happy getting our money back and when he hit his stride he was hot and cold. He was a £60m footballer for about a year in total I’d say. 

Worry is that second half is what we are.

[Zhan_Zhuang]

45 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Luiz was extremely comfortable receiving the ball at the back and coming out with it. He was great at getting us going. He is a bigger loss than people realise. Kamara and him was as good a central midfield pairing as you could ask for. It was quality.

Onana is a great signing for sure. But as of right now our midfield is weaker than this time last year amd we hope Kamara comes back the same player he was prior to the Injury.

This also applies to Buendia and Mings we hope they return from a year out and can slot back in.

Agreed. But an injury-free Tielemans can do this too, he has a great eye for a pass and really found some form halfway through the season. Onana can be the link between defence and attacking midfield, he is also stronger and quicker than Douglas Luiz.

I think we've mitigated the loss of Luiz with the acquisitions of Onana and Barkley. It's possible the signing of one other forward player could give us an extra outlet too (maybe Felix).

Edited August 11 by Zhan_Zhuang

[Leeroy]

I think we have fewer threats than the other top teams, I just don't see how this thread will stay open for very long. 

 

Let's leave out Man City and Arsenal who we know have far more options than us, but the other teams attacking players are:

• Liverpool - Jota, Salah, Diaz, Gakpo, Nunez 
• Spurs - Maddison, Solanke, Son, Kulusevski, Johnson, Werner
• Newcastle - Isak, Wilson, Almiron, Gordon, Barnes
• Man Utd - Hoijlund, Zirkzee, Fernandes, Rashford, Garnacho (maybe Sancho and Antony could have better seasons)
• Chelsea - Palmer, Nkunku, Jackson, Neto, Mudryk, Sterling, Madueke
• West Ham - Fullkrug, Paqueta, Bowen, Kudus, Guilherme, Summerville
• Us - Watkins, Bailey, Rogers, Ramsey, Buendia, Philogene, Iling Jr

 

I think our options compared to the others have lots more question marks. We're probably on a par with West Ham's, but Bowen and Kudus both got 24 goals between them last season and Paqueta is a top level no 10. I guess the question mark for them is if Fullkrug is a success, if he is then I rate their options above ours.

 

Watkins and Bailey are proven. Ramsey and Buendia have shown something at this level before, but not played properly for a year. Rogers had a good spell backend of last season, whether he can keep it going who knows. Iling Jr has never got more than 2 goals in a season and Philogene has never scored a goal in the top flight. Newcastle have got multiple players who have got double figures at this level over the years, same with Spurs, same with Man Utd, same with Chelsea. We literally have two players that have got into double figures at this level whereas other teams have three, four or five. Diaby and Luiz had never got into double figures for us either, but we knew they could contribute and Diaby got into double figures at Leverkusen. 

 

Even if we sign Felix, he hasn't scored more than 8 league goals in a season since his breakthrough season at Benfica. He would probably give us an advantage over say West Ham though. 

[abdulaziz1]

2 hours ago, punkiller1981 said:

At the moment I’m frustrated because we are heading into our first champions league season and the business we have done seems underwhelming to this point. I have full faith in unai and monchi and I know we have to tread carefully with PSR but I thought the champions league would give us a chance to add some really superstar quality to our ranks but so far we have added Ross Barkley, a left back albeit a very good one, Onana who I like but don’t see doing the same job as dougie and brought back two lads we let go last year. I’m not inspired so far and I think the one spot we really need to fill with some quality is behind Watkins, clearly we are interested in felix but I’m struggling to see it happening. 
 

in terms of the league I think we could be anywhere from 6-10 given the likes of West Ham are really improving there squad significantly. I don’t see us getting top 4, last season we were exceptional and I just don’t see us being able sustain it as well as play 8 champions league games. Hopefully we can get higher than I’m expecting and spend some decent money next summer to raise the quality levels again but my fear is that the likes of emi and Watkins play champions league and then want to leave next year to play in it again. 
 

final thought and it doesn’t really belong here but I read Keith weyness saying we should sell Duran for £20 million. Apparently he runs an elite football club consultancy business! With advice like that I’m sure he is overwhelmed with work. 

So you think if Luiz stayed we’d be better than with Onana?

Definitely disagree, as our issue here isn’t Luiz but Kamara. So in Onana we’re trying to dismiss the issues of Kamara’s absence. If we had Kamara then I could agree. The only way Luiz would’ve been good is by being played with Enzo, and we’re not sure how he’ll do. Actually Enzo himself came through Luiz deal. 

I think we’re definitely better than our first 11 that played after January. We’re better in terms of squad as well. 
Getting top 4 would’ve been an issue even if we had the same team. It’s a squad game after all. 
Geertuida and Felix, and we’re flying. Could have a slow start for several reasons, but our team should be fine.

[villa4europe]

1 minute ago, abdulaziz1 said:

So you think if Luiz stayed we’d be better than with Onana?

Definitely disagree, as our issue here isn’t Luiz but Kamara. So in Onana we’re trying to dismiss the issues of Kamara’s absence. If we had Kamara then I could agree. The only way Luiz would’ve been good is by being played with Enzo, and we’re not sure how he’ll do. Actually Enzo himself came through Luiz deal. 

I think we’re definitely better than our first 11 that played after January. We’re better in terms of squad as well. 
Getting top 4 would’ve been an issue even if we had the same team. It’s a squad game after all. 
Geertuida and Felix, and we’re flying. Could have a slow start for several reasons, but our team should be fine.

No, I think in order to have gotten better we needed to sign onana and keep luiz 

[abdulaziz1]

1 hour ago, Leeroy said:

I think we have fewer threats than the other top teams, I just don't see how this thread will stay open for very long. 

 

Let's leave out Man City and Arsenal who we know have far more options than us, but the other teams attacking players are:

• Liverpool - Jota, Salah, Diaz, Gakpo, Nunez 
• Spurs - Maddison, Solanke, Son, Kulusevski, Johnson, Werner
• Newcastle - Isak, Wilson, Almiron, Gordon, Barnes
• Man Utd - Hoijlund, Zirkzee, Fernandes, Rashford, Garnacho (maybe Sancho and Antony could have better seasons)
• Chelsea - Palmer, Nkunku, Jackson, Neto, Mudryk, Sterling, Madueke
• West Ham - Fullkrug, Paqueta, Bowen, Kudus, Guilherme, Summerville
• Us - Watkins, Bailey, Rogers, Ramsey, Buendia, Philogene, Iling Jr

 

I think our options compared to the others have lots more question marks. We're probably on a par with West Ham's, but Bowen and Kudus both got 24 goals between them last season and Paqueta is a top level no 10. I guess the question mark for them is if Fullkrug is a success, if he is then I rate their options above ours.

 

Watkins and Bailey are proven. Ramsey and Buendia have shown something at this level before, but not played properly for a year. Rogers had a good spell backend of last season, whether he can keep it going who knows. Iling Jr has never got more than 2 goals in a season and Philogene has never scored a goal in the top flight. Newcastle have got multiple players who have got double figures at this level over the years, same with Spurs, same with Man Utd, same with Chelsea. We literally have two players that have got into double figures at this level whereas other teams have three, four or five. Diaby and Luiz had never got into double figures for us either, but we knew they could contribute and Diaby got into double figures at Leverkusen. 

 

Even if we sign Felix, he hasn't scored more than 8 league goals in a season since his breakthrough season at Benfica. He would probably give us an advantage over say West Ham though. 

If we signed Felix, I won’t swap our attacking force with any of the mentioned attackers of other teams (as a whole). To know which you prefer, look if you swap them of not. 

[abdulaziz1]

1 minute ago, villa4europe said:

No, I think in order to have gotten better we needed to sign onana and keep luiz 

Yes, fair enough. But we’re not worse because we changed Luiz with Onana (atleast for the next 4 months). After Kamara is back we’ll know what we’re up to.

[Kiwivillan]

2 hours ago, AVTuco said:

Worry is that second half is what we are.

Onana?

[villa4europe]

Would also say the big difference from last season is tielemans started 17 PL games last season with 12 more off the bench, can see him starting 30 games this year if he stays fit

[AVTuco]

3 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

Onana?

Hoping for big things from him, but haven't seen enough yet.

[PaulC]

15 hours ago, VillaChris said:

The partnership with Kamara was quality though for pretty much all of 2023. No surprise Luiz dipped when Kamara injured himself.

We've in effective lost two players as Kamara will take a few months to get back fully up to speed.

The safe option would've probably been to have McGinn-Tielemans infront of the defence as they did a great job at Arsenal when we needed it and were also good v high pressing Bournemouth but we've signed Onana for a huge fee so he has to start and Tielemans will likely pick up knocks. Barrenechea will likely take a season to fully get up to the level we want him to be.

Transitional season it probably is going to be, can see us turning in some quality CL performances and then being flat for the following premier league fixture. Tolerable if we have a good league/FA Cup run.

Yes I thought the business we dud early with Maatsen and Onana was pretty good but it's all gone very quiet and although players are coming back from injury, it just seems having got into the champions league for the first time ever we're not any stronger than we were at this time last pre season.

Edited August 11 by PaulC

[Enda]

Opta predict us coming 8th, with about a 1-in-7 chance of Top 4.

More likely to be bottom half than Top 4 if you believe them.

[Kiwivillan]

30 minutes ago, Enda said:

Opta predict us coming 8th, with about a 1-in-7 chance of Top 4.

More likely to be bottom half than Top 4 if you believe them.

What did they predict before beginning of last season?

[tomsky_11]

44 minutes ago, Enda said:

Opta predict us coming 8th, with about a 1-in-7 chance of Top 4.

More likely to be bottom half than Top 4 if you believe them.

Based on betting odds (most have us 7th-8th) and their own "power rankings" which are ELO based. I assume maybe results in calendar year don't help with our power ranking, especially the 5-0 Palace dead rubber and the Olympiacos games as well maybe, while Chelsea possibly overstated by form under Poch who has now gone, Newcastle and Man Utd by better late season form as well when had no European football.

If you look at the detail of the simulations they have us getting 54 points, quite a way off our league record to date under Emery which would have us get 71 points if maintained.

Also, that's about a 1-in-14 chance they've got us for top 4 isn't it? 7.3%

Edited August 12 by tomsky_11

[Kiwivillan]

On 12/08/2024 at 02:04, PaulC said:

Yes I thought the business we dud early with Maatsen and Onana was pretty good but it's all gone very quiet and although players are coming back from injury, it just seems having got into the champions league for the first time ever we're not any stronger than we were at this time last pre season.

This time last season in terms of in the squad we've lost Luiz Diaby Chambers basically and added Rogers Onana Maatsen SIJ Barkley Barrenechea Kosta Buendia. How are we not stronger?

[tomsky_11]

16 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

What did they predict before beginning of last season?

9th. But with more points (55.38 vs 54.1) and a higher chance of top 4 (8.1% vs 7.3% now)