Vive_La_Villa Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 24 minutes ago, juanpablosaliceband said: I originally said 66% based on 1/2 or 4/9 betting odds. But then saw Opta have us at 75%. I like Opta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 I can't see Spurs getting more than 6-8 points from their remaining games, if they do it just means we will have to wait a little longer to seal our qualification. I'm thinking that a win on Sunday could leave us needing another 2-3 points. We don't need to rely on other teams, which is a good job, because it doesn't seem anyone wants to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 2 hours ago, bobzy said: Betting odds aren’t the probability of anything tbh. They obviously are. That's what odds are. Probability of something happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 3 hours ago, tomav84 said: thing is i think it's really difficult to sustain a europa league campaign whilst being competitive in the league. it's arguably the worst competition to be in. playing good teams so you need to go strong every week (remember we rotated a fair bit in the group games) but without the financial benefits that the CL brings i'm desperate to qualify for the CL. i want to keep the likes of watkins and emi here and without that there's a chance their heads might be turned. yes it's very easy to say "well if they don't want to be here they can leave" but those 2 are irreplaceable IMO. it totally changes your status as a club. people point to newcastle and how it's not done them many favours but they qualified a year too early. we have enough to get through to the playoff round in the new format so there's no 'group of death' anymore. whilst on paper it's still improvement and an excellent season, 5th would feel like a failure at this point IMO. i can honestly say i'm going to be more nervous sunday than i will be tonight. sunday's game has occupied more of my mind this week than tonight's to be completely honest... But, we could always draw the two toughest teams in each of the other pots. That said, bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Just now, CVByrne said: They obviously are. That's what odds are. Probability of something happening Not betting odds. They fluctuate with money hitting the market. They're not based solely on the likelihood of one particular outcome. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 23 minutes ago, John said: I can't see Spurs getting more than 6-8 points from their remaining games, if they do it just means we will have to wait a little longer to seal our qualification. I'm thinking that a win on Sunday could leave us needing another 2-3 points. We don't need to rely on other teams, which is a good job, because it doesn't seem anyone wants to help us out. I can. They'll get 6 minimum from Burnley/Sheff Utd. And they will get something from one of Arsenal, Chelsa, Liverpool or City. A surprise win and a draw, 4 points added to the other 6 and they have 70 points. We need 7 or 8 points I reckon. For anyone thinking Spurs will lose those 4 games, they have already beat Liverpool, drew with Arsenal and City and lost to Chelsea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post alreadyexists Posted April 18 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted April 18 50 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I like Opta. Well, that’s Opta you 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 I think wins against Bournemouth and Palace + a draw against Brighton might just be enough. Any bonus points from Chelsea and Liverpool (which are at home and certainly not beyond us) would almost certainly take us over the line. Don't want to be too loud, but I think we got this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pez1974 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 54 minutes ago, CVByrne said: They obviously are. That's what odds are. Probability of something happening No, they aren't. The are a risk based calculation by the betting company designed to find the balance between attracting people to part with their money, and the risk of the company losing money. If someone walked into a bookies and lumped a large amount on Villa to win, it's likely that the odds would fall with that bookie, in order to reduce their risk. However, the probability of Villa winning would be unaffected. This is why England often have shorter odds of winning things in this country, because people in this country tend to bet on England to win - oddly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhatAboutTheFinish Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 If anybody actually knows of a more efficient way to calculate the probability of a sporting result than the betting markets….please let me know. I’d be a millionaire in week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 I still think we are about a season off Champions League level. A game like this in Champions League we be punished a lot more severely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reivax_Villa Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 minute ago, Zatman said: I still think we are about a season off Champions League level. A game like this in Champions League we be punished a lot more severely Agree I have been saying this for the past few months.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Alakagom Posted April 18 Popular Post Share Posted April 18 Just now, Reivax_Villa said: Agree I have been saying this for the past few months.. It really does not matter if we're ready or not, with the new FPP rules that are related to club revenues/wages turnover we need CL cash to keep up with rivals. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul514 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 So moving on........... I think tonights exertion will play a role at the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Yeah probably. Draw might be a good result really. It won't be pretty anyway. Might get some bonus points from Liverpool and West ham here too expect leverkeusen to go through still but if they can at least fail to win this tie that's something. Half a chance Liverpool do something very useful.but tall order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R.Bear Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 On 17/04/2024 at 17:36, Panto_Villan said: This isn't going to be a hugely popular opinion here, but I don't see the Conference League as a "proper" trophy worth derailing our progress for. On 17/04/2024 at 00:16, Tayls said: Im really sorry but I just can’t get excited about winning a third tier competition. It’s not the pinnacle. Enjoy the game lads? I know its an inferior competition and probably too low-brow for you to waste your time with but I hope you had it on in the background at least! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 (edited) 4 minutes ago, R.Bear said: Enjoy the game lads? I know its an inferior competition and probably too low-brow for you to waste your time with but I hope you had it on in the background at least! It was on. I appreciate the opportunity this competition gives to Villa and other sides. I celebrated the victory… I still would prefer champions league over winning the ECL. You have to realise it was a hypothetical question that was asked. I gave an answer. That doesn’t automatically mean I want to us lose the games that we do play in. Come on man. Edited April 18 by Tayls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Made In Aston Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Liverpool and West ham leading at half time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 minute ago, R.Bear said: Enjoy the game lads? I know its an inferior competition and probably too low-brow for you to waste your time with but I hope you had it on in the background at least! Yeah, it was great thanks. I hope you enjoyed watching this team and manager? I'd certainly like to watch them continue to play together in future seasons, but each to their own I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Ah Ct=Ct_1+I*F*(W-We) how I’ve missed you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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