RichW Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, duke313 said: Potential banana skins for Spurs, especially West Ham, they’ll raise their game for a London derby, and Spurs struggle even more than we do against a low block. Intrigued to see how Spurs do away to West Ham compared to how we did yesterday. If West Ham do go and beat Spurs then it will make the draw we got yesterday an even better result I think. West Ham won't have any Europe mid-week either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 51 minutes ago, useless said: If we can still be fourth in the table after the next four games then we will be in a strong position, as we will have played our two toughest remaining fixtures, and Spurs will then be going ino a run of fixtures where they have to play Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool in succession That West Ham and Newcastle can still qualify for Europe will hopefully work in our favor, both more than capable of beating Spurs at home, before West Ham and Newcastle play Spurs they play each other, a Newcastle win in that would probably be better for us, as means they will have more to play for going into the Spurs game, West Ham already have 44 points so will still be in contention for top six or seven, and they will always be motivated to beat Spurs no matter what Man Utd games are hard to predict, in isolation they could just as easily win any of the next four as they could lose any one of them, but for sure I don't think they will win them all, or lose them all Man City game will be rescheduled due to the FA Cup so not sure how much it helps them but they will have a 2 week break before the Arsenal game. Guess its one less difficult game in succession but probably means instead of finishing the season with 2 games against likely already relegated teams they will have Man City between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, RichW said: Man City game will be rescheduled due to the FA Cup so not sure how much it helps them but they will have a 2 week break before the Arsenal game. Guess its one less difficult game in succession but probably means instead of finishing the season with 2 games against likely already relegated teams they will have Man City between them. Think they haven't rescheduled the Chelsea game either. Might leave them a backlog at end of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 1 hour ago, bobzy said: The next 4 games are key - partly because they represent a large proportion of the remaining fixtures (), but also for the mental side of sides in the battle: Villa: Wolves (H), Man City (A), Brentford (H), Arsenal (A) (Lille tie either side of Arsenal game) Spurs: Luton (H), West Ham (A), Forest (H), Newcastle (A) Man Utd: Brentford (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A) As things stand, there are no games in hand being played during this 4 game period - so we have a 3 points lead over Spurs and 9 points over Man Utd. Obviously there's no easy game etc etc, but pessimistically (from a Villa POV, of course) I'd give each side: Villa - 4 points Spurs - 10 points Man Utd - 7 points This loosely assumes that we take 4 points from the two home games and lose the away ones. Spurs will drop 2 points at either West Ham or Newcastle (more likely than the home fixtures) and Man Utd beat both Brentford and Bournemouth away whilst taking a point elsewhere (feels unlikely, to be honest). We'd then have: Spurs - 63 points Villa - 60 points Man Utd - 54 points ...heading into the final few games. These are: Villa: Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Palace (A) Spurs: Man City (H), Arsenal (H), Liverpool (A), Burnley (H), Sheff Utd (A) and Chelsea (A) (to be arranged) Man Utd: Newcastle (H), Burnley (H), Palace (A), Arsenal (H), Brighton (A) and Sheff Utd (H) (to be arranged) Again, being pessimistic, let's assume we get 4 points, Spurs get 9 points and Man Utd get 12 points. End of the season table would be: Spurs - 72 points Man Utd - 66 points Villa - 64 points So whilst, yes, we may not finish 4th, I think it would need a fairly substantial shift in fortunes for both us and Man Utd for us not to finish 5th. This can obviously happen, but it just feels really unlikely. Still feels a bit early to me to be doing end of season points predictions feel like we need to get the next 3 fixtures out the way. League table is going to be a bit annoying as it's going to show Man Utd and Spurs having 2 games in hand on us, though surely with Chelsea and Spurs not being in Europe that game should be arranged soon? Edited March 18 by RichW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 18 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18 33 minutes ago, bobzy said: I think it's asking a lot for Man Utd to be getting 20 points from those games tbh. Just to lay them all out: Brentford (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (H), Burnley (H), Palace (A), Arsenal (H), Brighton (A) and Sheff Utd (H). 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. You'd hope (for them) that Burnley and Sheff Utd at home are bankers. Tough to really see a nailed on other 4 wins there. I guess you're looking at Brentford, Bournemouth and Palace (all away) as 3 wins. Then 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses from Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (H) and Brighton (A) - which is possible but... this Man Utd side? I don't know. this United side somehow have 1 win less than us, despite being dire for most of the season, so I don't put anything beyond them tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Man Utd can beat anyone on their day as they showed yesterday. Likewise they could lose to Burnley at home. We just need to concentrate on ourselves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted March 18 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18 (edited) 15 hours ago, omariqy said: I had them getting 21/22 points maximum and that was being way over the top with optimism on their behalf and with them not losing a game all season. That's basically title winning form, and better than anything Utd have managed over a 10 game stretch this season. It's not impossible, but it would be a remarkable turnaround in form for them Edited March 18 by Stevo985 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted March 18 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18 54 minutes ago, bobzy said: I think it's asking a lot for Man Utd to be getting 20 points from those games tbh. Agreed. It would also be quite the collapse in form for us to only get 12 points out of our last 9 games, even if the fixtures are hard. And despite all of that, we'd STILL finish ahead of Utd in that scenario. This is why I've been encouraging people to just look at the numbers. Everything is stacked heavily in our favour 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermon Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 33 minutes ago, RichW said: Man City game will be rescheduled due to the FA Cup so not sure how much it helps them but they will have a 2 week break before the Arsenal game. Guess its one less difficult game in succession but probably means instead of finishing the season with 2 games against likely already relegated teams they will have Man City between them. Would be great if they had to play Chelsea, Sheffield, City and Burnley in the space of 14 days. Let's see how they cope with mid week games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted March 18 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18 3 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Agreed. It would also be quite the collapse in form for us to only get 12 points out of our last 9 games, even if the fixtures are hard. And despite all of that, we'd STILL finish ahead of Utd in that scenario. This is why I've been encouraging people to just look at the numbers. Everything is stacked heavily in our favour Very well demonstrated by this. 12 points from 9 games would be a worse PPG than we've managed over any 5 game period all season, let alone 9 games. 12 hours ago, omariqy said: I've been geeking it up and looking at our rolling ppg average, both over the season and over a rolling 5 game period. We've maintained a ppg of over 1.9 since Palace at home. Even in our dips i.e. Man U at home and after today's game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Stevo985 Posted March 18 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted March 18 13 hours ago, omariqy said: I've been geeking it up and looking at our rolling ppg average, both over the season and over a rolling 5 game period. We've maintained a ppg of over 1.9 since Palace at home. Even in our dips i.e. Man U at home and after today's game. I've replicated this for Man Utd. Their highest PPG over 10 game all season was 2.1, which is actually higher than I expected. But it was an incredibly favourable run of fixtures (BUR, PAL, BRE, SHU, MCI, FUL, LUT, EVE, NEW, CHE) and was only for one week. Other than that they haven't got above 1.9 Even replicating that 2.1PPG for their remaining games would only see them finish on 68 points. We only need 12 points to hit that, which as previously discussed would be our lowest PPG for the entire season. So in summary, even if Utd replicate their highest PPG that they've managed all season, and we replicated our lowest, we'd STILL beat them 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 34 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: this United side somehow have 1 win less than us, despite being dire for most of the season, so I don't put anything beyond them tbh They've also lost 4 more games than us, though. I know what you're saying but if you look at where they've won games, they've had 0 surprising results outside of doing the double over some top 4 team... and maybe a 0-0 draw at Anfield. If you take the results of the reverse fixtures against the sides they have remaining, they got 13 points from those 10 games. They've also scraped past teams on so many occasions this season - 93rd and 97th minute goals to beat Brentford 2-1, a 91st minute goal to beat Fulham 1-0, 97th minute winner against Wolves, and 80+ minute winners against us. Their most recent win (home to Everton) was 2-0; both goals from penalties. It shows they're fighting, I guess, but I can't see them picking up 20+ points. Obviously they could but it feels farfetched. Their next game away at Brentford... they'll be marginal favourites and Brentford have looked relatively poor recently, but they're still scoring goals and are generally "in" games. For Man Utd to be finishing in a CL spot, they sort of need that as a banker win. Would you put money on it? I wouldn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 As each game passes, it becomes increasingly unlikely that United will catch us. The results of the UCL/UEL/UECL quarter finals will really paint a clear picture going into the last 5 matches of how many points everyone will need for the various European places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, DJBOB said: As each game passes, it becomes increasingly unlikely that United will catch us. The results of the UCL/UEL/UECL quarter finals will really paint a clear picture going into the last 5 matches of how many points everyone will need for the various European places. Yup by close of play 18th April we should have almost certainty on whether 5th gets Champs League Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 4 hours ago, duke313 said: Potential banana skins for Spurs, especially West Ham, they’ll raise their game for a London derby, and Spurs struggle even more than we do against a low block. Unfortunate that Alvarez got a yellow in yesterday's game as he will miss the next two including the spurs game. He's a grafter type like McGinn and one of their best players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted March 18 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18 2 hours ago, Zatman said: Think they haven't rescheduled the Chelsea game either. Might leave them a backlog at end of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post JPAngel Posted March 18 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted March 18 A quick update from me, my PPG projections and the projections based on corresponding results last season. Our last result was consistent with last season so we're moving along nicely whereas Spurs projection has taken a hit as they won at Craven Cottage last season. This also sees their PPG take a hit with them now projected to finish on 71 points and Villa finishing two points clear on 73 points. I think people are giving Man Utd a little too much credit at the moment. Their current PPG average for the season is 1.68 which would see them finish on 63 points - a full ten points behind our projection. To overtake us (not taking the massive goal difference swing into account) they'd need a PPG average of 2.68. I know football can't be boiled down to mere projections but, for us to finish outside the top 5, it would require us to embark on a run of form that would be Emery's worst in his Villa career as well as Man Utd hitting a level of form that they haven't achieved all season. It feels like a coin toss as to whether we'll finish 4th or 5th but I'm pretty confident 5th will be enough for CL football this year based on the recent European draws. We've got this. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 9 minutes ago, JPAngel said: A quick update from me, my PPG projections and the projections based on corresponding results last season. Our last result was consistent with last season so we're moving along nicely whereas Spurs projection has taken a hit as they won at Craven Cottage last season. This also sees their PPG take a hit with them now projected to finish on 71 points and Villa finishing two points clear on 73 points. I think people are giving Man Utd a little too much credit at the moment. Their current PPG average for the season is 1.68 which would see them finish on 63 points - a full ten points behind our projection. To overtake us (not taking the massive goal difference swing into account) they'd need a PPG average of 2.68. I know football can't be boiled down to mere projections but, for us to finish outside the top 5, it would require us to embark on a run of form that would be Emery's worst in his Villa career as well as Man Utd hitting a level of form that they haven't achieved all season. It feels like a coin toss as to whether we'll finish 4th or 5th but I'm pretty confident 5th will be enough for CL football this year based on the recent European draws. We've got this. Great visualization and again - United would have to suddenly transform into a title winning form to overtake us. It is Villa - so anything is possible - but just so unlikely I can't even bother worrying about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Stevo985 Posted March 18 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted March 18 10 minutes ago, JPAngel said: A quick update from me, my PPG projections and the projections based on corresponding results last season. Our last result was consistent with last season so we're moving along nicely whereas Spurs projection has taken a hit as they won at Craven Cottage last season. This also sees their PPG take a hit with them now projected to finish on 71 points and Villa finishing two points clear on 73 points. I think people are giving Man Utd a little too much credit at the moment. Their current PPG average for the season is 1.68 which would see them finish on 63 points - a full ten points behind our projection. To overtake us (not taking the massive goal difference swing into account) they'd need a PPG average of 2.68. I know football can't be boiled down to mere projections but, for us to finish outside the top 5, it would require us to embark on a run of form that would be Emery's worst in his Villa career as well as Man Utd hitting a level of form that they haven't achieved all season. It feels like a coin toss as to whether we'll finish 4th or 5th but I'm pretty confident 5th will be enough for CL football this year based on the recent European draws. We've got this. These posts give me an erection 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSvillain Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Updated view from Opta but seems to change by the minute: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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