TRO Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 If we maintain our points per game average, 1.96 ppg until the end of the season....we will finish on 75 points.....that will give us c3/4 place based on previous 5 seasons. so many factors to navigate, and injuries, form being the main ones.....but its all down to maintaining momentum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, duke313 said: Man City have been OVERTAKEN as favourites to win the Premier League, stats boffins reveal, as Man United's percentage chance of a Champions League place increase while Spurs are on the slide | Daily Mail Online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 We still have a 1% chance of winning the title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 As we enter the last third of the session, we are now 6th in xG and 5th in xGA and 4th in xGD. Despite and in spite of all the injuries along the back line, we have a much better defense than the rest of our UCL competitors. Chelsea, United, and Spurs are 10th, 12th, and 14th in xGA respectively. The underlying metrics behind that are good for us too with our only glaring weakness being that we allow a high amount of goals per shot (lots of 1v1s with Emi). Should we maintain this defensive posture, we will make UCL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Those stats were achieved with konsa and Kamara in the team and doesn’t take into account he harder fixture list we have for the rest of the season nor the extra Europa games. For us it’s all about whether we can get the 7 wins we need and not lose to Spurs. However our PPG is very likely to fall in the next 13 games which gives spurs or Utd a chance if they start to put a run together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Konsa will be back soon but Kamara will be a miss. The rest of the teams, particularly United are also not without injury issues. Lisandro for United is a big miss for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 15 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said: Those stats were achieved with konsa and Kamara in the team and doesn’t take into account he harder fixture list we have for the rest of the season nor the extra Europa games. For us it’s all about whether we can get the 7 wins we need and not lose to Spurs. However our PPG is very likely to fall in the next 13 games which gives spurs or Utd a chance if they start to put a run together. At this point last season, we also put a run together, winning 8, drawing 3 and losing only 2, mostly done without Kamara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 We also had Mings at the time and the stats show pretty incontrovertibly that we’re a much better defending side with Ty. But conversely, we have a much higher attacking output with Pau so we’ll make up the difference somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 My mate supports Arsenal and he thinks they will win the league and then conquer the world. We have had a ridiculous injury crisis and are 6 points behind them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TreeVillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, TRO said: If we maintain our points per game average, 1.96 ppg until the end of the season....we will finish on 75 points.....that will give us c3/4 place based on previous 5 seasons. so many factors to navigate, and injuries, form being the main ones.....but its all down to maintaining momentum. Are you Paul Merson? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 19 VT Supporter Share Posted February 19 54 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said: Those stats were achieved with konsa and Kamara in the team and doesn’t take into account he harder fixture list we have for the rest of the season nor the extra Europa games. For us it’s all about whether we can get the 7 wins we need and not lose to Spurs. However our PPG is very likely to fall in the next 13 games which gives spurs or Utd a chance if they start to put a run together. I agree. But as I've been saying the stats show what a MASSIVE swing it would take for us to go down to 5th, let alone 6th. Even with an expected drop in PPG, we're still comfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, AshVilla said: We still have a 1% chance of winning the title? Had to be done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic09 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, DakotaVilla said: Those stats were achieved with konsa and Kamara in the team and doesn’t take into account he harder fixture list we have for the rest of the season nor the extra Europa games. That's true, but without Konsa & Kamara we have 3/3 possible points (Fulham win). Stats can be skewed many ways, and while both important players, it's a team game and I would suggest we will likely continue the same form we had over the season than drop off the pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Getting 6 points from our next 2 games really is vital. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, DJBOB said: As we enter the last third of the session, we are now 6th in xG and 5th in xGA and 4th in xGD. Despite and in spite of all the injuries along the back line, we have a much better defense than the rest of our UCL competitors. Chelsea, United, and Spurs are 10th, 12th, and 14th in xGA respectively. The underlying metrics behind that are good for us too with our only glaring weakness being that we allow a high amount of goals per shot (lots of 1v1s with Emi). Should we maintain this defensive posture, we will make UCL. True but Chelea and United form has finally got to something like the minimum standard they should have given their budgets. We had a brilliant first half , just need to keep going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, AshVilla said: Getting 6 points from our next 2 games really is vital. This. It just has to happen. Anything less and we’ll be giving ourselves plenty to do. Would be so nice going into the Spurs game knowing a win would put us 6-8 points clear of them potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakefieldVillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 05/02/2024 at 11:45, WakefieldVillan said: So even the most pessimistic Villa fan would agree that basically it is only Man Utd now that can possibly stop us finishing in the top 5. I know, I know, shouldn't do this buuuuut.... Current Standings; Us 46 points, Them 38. Their remaining fixtures are; Us (H), Luton (A), Fulham (H), Man City (A), Everton (H), Sheff Utd (H), Brentford (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (h), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (H), Burnley (H), Palace (A), Arsenal (H) and Brighton (A). The ones in bold I would say are pretty much dead certs. I wouldn't be shocked with draws or defeats in any of the others, but let's say (pessimistic head) wins in the following; Us, Luton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Palace - Say defeats against City and Liverpool and draws elswhere - That's a record of P15 W9 D4 L2 PTS 31 - Giving them 69 points! I don't think that's totally unrealistic, albeit a little negative from our POV. This would mean we would require the magic number of 70, and 24 points from 14 matches, I can see wins for us in Forest (H), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (H) and Chelsea (H) matches. We would then require a further 12 points from Fulham, Luton, Spurs, West Ham, Wolves, City, Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool and Palace. I think we CAN do it - But BEATING them this Sunday would make it a whole lot more likely. Two week on and although the gap has got closer between us and Man U, I feel like the performance against them, plus the two victories away, gives me confidence we can still do this. Us 49 Man U 44 points, effectively an extra point for our GD - So 6 points between us, with 39 points to play for. I think they will get 9 points from their next 4, but the big ones for them will be the next 5 after that (Brentford (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (H)) Pick a number between 1 and 15 points out of that lot! I say 15 but I genuinely hope that it's no more than 6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 34 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: True but Chelea and United form has finally got to something like the minimum standard they should have given their budgets. We had a brilliant first half , just need to keep going. While somewhat true, they haven’t been performing so well that they’re blowing away teams. Even sorted for just the last 10 matches, we’re doing better than we think, just lacked a bit of cutting edge at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, AshVilla said: We still have a 1% chance of winning the title? Sounds about right to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captain Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 hours ago, ender4 said: Is depends. They have an easier final 13 games than us and have to make up 5 points on us. It could go either way but a lot depends on our own form. If we can get 7 more wins, I don’t think they’ll catch us, if we get 5 more wins, they will catch us. What if we get 5 more wins and then another 2 will they still catch us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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