TRO Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Too many games left for us to be busying ourselves with out comes.....third of a season still to go. We all want to finish in the top 4.....and if we do, under the circumstances, it will be phenomenal. Too many twists and turns still left, for us to be piling pressure on oursleves, fans and players....lets just let it unfold, fixture by fixture. We are still WIP, despite the injury list, which is cruel.....so no conclusions to be had. We just have to take each game as it comes, there will be surprises on both sides of the every day predictions. No game is a gimme.... we have to fight, for every one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Man. United finished 6th all of two seasons back. Why wasn't VAR helping them out then? Think that's too much of a conspiracy theory myself given they've lost 9 prem games already and only been awarded three penalties this season. The reason they're winning currently is they're taking their chances and others teams aren't. Think of all the chances we had v them that we just scuffed or couldn't put any serious power on, was same with Luton yesterday as Doughty had a brilliant chance right on half time but scuffed it wide of the post. I think that will start to balance out soon start with Man. City away. They're also starting to get decimated at the back again as looks like Shaw and Maguire will be out for a spell again to add to Martinez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Man City have been OVERTAKEN as favourites to win the Premier League, stats boffins reveal, as Man United's percentage chance of a Champions League place increase while Spurs are on the slide | Daily Mail Online Quote Villa and Spurs have a 73 per cent and 62 per cent chance respectively of making the competition, while Manchester United (28 per cent), Newcastle (seven per cent), Chelsea (five per cent), Brighton (four per cent) and West Ham (one per cent) are outside contenders. Tottenham however have seen their chances of qualification take a 16 per cent hit after losing 2-1 at home to Wolves on Saturday, while United's hopes are up six percent amid their own mini-resurgence. Unai Emery's Villa seemingly had the best week of the lot, their hopes of finishing in the Champions league spots increasing by 12 per cent after they beat Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 15 hours ago, GlobalVillan said: They've been unconvincing all season and done the double on us whilst just 5 points behind us. As for games running out, there are 13 games and 39 points left to play for. That 5 point gap is hardly insurmountable. They were not very good last year and finished top 4 and won a trophy. Ruling them out is madness. They are a huge threat and get the decisions other teams just won't get. We need to go on a strong winning run of our own asap. It's 6 points. If there's a 20 goal difference swing between now and the end of the season, it would be teams lower than Man U that we need to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, turvontour said: It's 6 points. If there's a 20 goal difference swing between now and the end of the season, it would be teams lower than Man U that we need to worry about. Well, it's 5 points but ok, call it 6 with GD. So they have to make up 6 points from 39 instead of 5 from 39. Not exactly impossible, or improbable, especially with the refs and VAR on their side. Additionally, at some point they may actually start playing well. It's incredible how many games they've won whilst playing badly. When we play badly, we lose, when they play badly, they often win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ouchmefoot Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 In the last 20 years, only once has 2.0ppg (76 points) not been enough for top 4. The exception was in 2013/2014 when Arsenal finished 4th with 79 points. Everton were 5th on 72. If we beat Forest on Saturday we'll be exactly 2.0ppg (Played 26, Points 52). Just need to keep it going... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 When they play badly they lose 3-0 at home to Bournemouth. We weren't good at all v Burnley and made very heavy weather of beating them. They're on a good run currently but they will drop plenty of points between now and the end of the season so we just have to keep winning the games we need to win in the run in like on Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, VillaChris said: When they play badly they lose 3-0 at home to Bournemouth. We weren't good at all v Burnley and made very heavy weather of beating them. They're on a good run currently but they will drop plenty of points between now and the end of the season so we just have to keep winning the games we need to win in the run in like on Saturday. Also, don't discount Spurs folding to pressure. If United win at weekend they will be level with points with Spurs who don't play, they're known as "Spursy" for a reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, duke313 said: Also, don't discount Spurs folding to pressure. If United win at weekend they will be level with points with Spurs who don't play, they're known as "Spursy" for a reason Spurs will be dropping loads of points in April, that's a brutal run of fixtures they have. Sky will probably be amusing and request that Chelsea away for them is dropped in a midweek in that period as Spurs collapsing in a season finale is always hilarious viewing. Really important we don't lose to them at VP, win our next two and a draw v them will be a decent result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 12 minutes ago, VillaChris said: When they play badly they lose 3-0 at home to Bournemouth. We weren't good at all v Burnley and made very heavy weather of beating them. They're on a good run currently but they will drop plenty of points between now and the end of the season so we just have to keep winning the games we need to win in the run in like on Saturday. That was 2 months ago. I mean recently. They've been poor and kept winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 19 VT Supporter Share Posted February 19 15 minutes ago, VillaChris said: When they play badly they lose 3-0 at home to Bournemouth. We weren't good at all v Burnley and made very heavy weather of beating them. They're on a good run currently but they will drop plenty of points between now and the end of the season so we just have to keep winning the games we need to win in the run in like on Saturday. Man Utd aren't a concern. 5th is the lowest we'll finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, GlobalVillan said: That was 2 months ago. I mean recently. They've been poor and kept winning. Not sure, they could've been 5-0 up v Wolves but messed endless chances. That it took until the 97th minute for them to win at Wolves indicates their issues. Against us they played very well second half at Old Trafford. They went all out and had a go and we simply couldn't cope with it. VP we should've put them away but ultimately that's just having decades of hang ups v them that is still in our psyche. We still don't believe we can beat them regularly compared to Chelsea or even Arsenal or Man. City which is incredibly frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said: That was 2 months ago. I mean recently. They've been poor and kept winning. If they continue to play poor, their luck will run out. Their underlaying stats are terrible, if they continue to allow teams to create so many chances against them, they will be found out when better teams than Luton play them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Willard Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Imagine if Newcastle and United both didn’t do the double over us. It’s crazy how well we’ve done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 17 minutes ago, Lord Willard said: Imagine if Newcastle and United both didn’t do the double over us. It’s crazy how well we’ve done. I was thinking that the other day. It would have to be this season that this happens wouldn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 27 minutes ago, duke313 said: If they continue to play poor, their luck will run out. Their underlaying stats are terrible, if they continue to allow teams to create so many chances against them, they will be found out when better teams than Luton play them. Let's hope that they do continue to play poorly and that their luck does run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayEm Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I think we can reasonably target wins against Forest (H), Luton (A), West Ham (A), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (H), and Palace (A), plus draws with Spurs (H), Chelsea (H), and Brighton (A). That's 21 points, takes us to 70. That's assuming nothing against City, Arsenal, or Liverpool, or Wolves because they're in form and we never beat them. That's a pretty realistic aim, and two of the teams I'm saying we'll lose against we've already beaten, albeit at home and playing our best football in decades. United would need to get 27 points from their final 13 fixtures to overtake us. That's 7 wins and 6 draws, or 8 wins if you think they don't go unbeaten the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted February 19 VT Supporter Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Ouchmefoot said: In the last 20 years, only once has 2.0ppg (76 points) not been enough for top 4. The exception was in 2013/2014 when Arsenal finished 4th with 79 points. Everton were 5th on 72. If we beat Forest on Saturday we'll be exactly 2.0ppg (Played 26, Points 52). Just need to keep it going... Even then, 76 points was enough though really - if Arsenal had lost a game which they won, even to Everton (assuming one of those matches was indeed an Arsenal win), they would still have finished 4th on 76 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Lord Willard said: Imagine if Newcastle and United both didn’t do the double over us. It’s crazy how well we’ve done. True. but parrallels exist , in the 4 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Similar to the DM 'supercomputer' ^^, Opta have us 50% chance of 4th, 29% 5th and 12% 6th. Spurs: 32% 4th, 38% 5th and 19% 6th Utd: 9% 4th, 23% 5th and 37% 6th That feels about right to me. But every game we get 3 points is going to shift the odds further in our favour now as games run out. Need to win the next 2 to maintain the gap to Utd and hope for a new manager bounce from Palace against Spurs. Would be great to have a bit of a gap to them when we play them and put the pressure on their run in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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