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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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3 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Yeah we need to keep the gap to Chelsea really. They're the only team left who can break the top 5. 

Can't see Chelsea getting close to 60 points, we'd need to have a disaster of a final three months not to get well over 60 points.

Looking at the fixtures in next two months, Brighton are the ones to watch. They are getting key players back and have plenty of winnable games up to when they resume europa so they can push into top 6 and cut the gap to us and Spurs significantly I think come mid March.

Edited by VillaChris
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9 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

No, we are 3rd. 

Not being pedantic but joint 2nd would require a whole set of different stats to the ones in the league table.

3rd is an amazing position to be in. And that's where we are.

 

9 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I hate this " Joint " narrative lol.

If the season finished now, we'd finish 3rd, not " joint second " 🤣

😉

giphy.gif

 

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11 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Can't see Chelsea getting close to 60 points, we'd need to have a disaster of a final three months not to get well over 60 points.

Looking at the fixtures in next two months, Brighton are the ones to watch. They are getting key players back and have plenty of winnable games up to when they resume europa so they can push into top 6 and cut the gap to us and Spurs significantly I think come mid March.

Yeah Chelsea shouldn't be catching us from here. Brighton and West Ham.cannot be ruled out but if they caughtus, it would be for a Europa Place not a CL spot.

I still expect us to finish 5th.

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We are 12 points clear of Chelsea, Brighton. 9 points clear of West Ham. 14 clear of Newcastle. I don't know why people are finding narratives to try and say we won't finish 4th. It's still in our hands. 

Edited by The_Steve
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6 minutes ago, The_Steve said:

We are 12 points clear of Chelsea, Brighton. 9 points clear of West Ham. 14 clear of Newcastle. I don't know why people are finding narratives to try and say we won't finish 4th. It's still in our hands. 

We will finish above all of those teams but that doesn't mean we will finish 4th.

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13 minutes ago, The_Steve said:

We are 12 points clear of Chelsea, Brighton. 9 points clear of West Ham. 14 clear of Newcastle. I don't know why people are finding narratives to try and say we won't finish 4th. It's still in our hands. 

Yeah it's amazing how good a season we're having. Trouble is some people have really short memories and now if we don't win every week it's the end of the world.

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We won't finish below 5th.

The challenge we face is whether Spurs improve with Maddison returning and their new signings. If they carry on conceding as many chances as they create, we should (as demonstrated so far in the league) be finishing above them.

Also remains to be seen whether Arsenal return to their previous season's form, which would also see them overtake us. 

Alongside that, we just need to keep doing what we are, mixing great results with ok ones and the very odd bad one.

Our form for a long time has been top 4. It should stay that way.

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17 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

We will finish above all of those teams but that doesn't mean we will finish 4th.

We are still over 2.0 ppg, keep that up and we are 4th.

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Picking up this thread again for a bit of perspective after yesterday's draw with Everton.

To reaffirm something I've mentioned before, on average, 71 points has been enough to secure a top 4 finish every season for the last 14 years.

Continuing with our average PPG this season would leave us with a projected total of 77/78 points so there is margin for error here. Repeating results for the corresponding fixtures for last season would see us finish with 70 points.

image.thumb.png.9655336e019d4cb3c0eaab4a3348c1b4.png

This means that, to finish in the top 4, we'd need to do one point better than our corresponding results for the remaining fixtures below.

image.png.e88ccf66bb337c75a5f0ecb4e5d62a1b.png

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15 minutes ago, romavillan said:

Yeah it's amazing how good a season we're having. Trouble is some people have really short memories and now if we don't win every week it's the end of the world.

People need to realise you don't need to win every week to finish top 4, Man. United and Newcastle certainly weren't after January last season. Look at Man. United's away results for last three months of the season yet they were still a comfortable 3rd.

We'll be o.k if we keep winning regularly at home.

I think some people are so transfixed and genuinely do believe we can win the league then results like yesterday do feel the end of the world. Yesterday could be actually a good point if Everton turn over Spurs in a couple of weeks at Goodison.

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3 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

People need to realise you don't need to win every week to finish top 4, Man. United and Newcastle certainly weren't after January last season. Look at Man. United's away results for last three months of the season yet they were still a comfortable 3rd.

We'll be o.k if we keep winning regularly at home.

I think some people are so transfixed and genuinely do believe we can win the league then results like yesterday do feel the end of the world. Yesterday could be actually a good point if Everton turn over Spurs in a couple of weeks at Goodison.

Yeah I think yesterday was a good point, as I think we will finish 5th and don't expect us to win games like this. (Though I did hope we would get a scrappy win)

Failing to beat Sheffield United, Everton and Man United after being 2-0 up, isn't great, but won't in itself stop us competeing for a top 5 spot, given our results in other games.

I predicted we would get 2 points in January and I stand by it. 5th likely gets Champions League so I'm not too concerned. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

We won't finish below 5th.

The challenge we face is whether Spurs improve with Maddison returning and their new signings. If they carry on conceding as many chances as they create, we should (as demonstrated so far in the league) be finishing above them.

Also remains to be seen whether Arsenal return to their previous season's form, which would also see them overtake us. 

Alongside that, we just need to keep doing what we are, mixing great results with ok ones and the very odd bad one.

Our form for a long time has been top 4. It should stay that way.

Exactly, we’ve been consistent for so long and I wish some wouldn’t act like we aren’t going to win another game this season and just drop off. There’s still much to play for and we are in a fantastic position for CL football next season. 

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We need to figure out how to turn our dominance into goals. Pointless controlling the game but not being able to break through. 1 goal against Everton would have opened the gates as they drove for an equaliser.

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3 minutes ago, The_Steve said:

I wish some wouldn’t act like we aren’t going to win another game this season

Can you point to some examples of those people? I haven't seen anyone suggest we will finish lower than 5th except one person who said 6th.

Top 5 would be an improvement on last season and our highest league place for a quarter of a century. As well as put us in the CL.

The dramatic, toys out of the pram posts like yours, just because not everyone thinks we will finish in the top 4 (or win the league even) are really quite sad.

And you are just making shit up. Nobody has suggested we aren't gonna win another game. Or anything close to that.

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On 08/01/2024 at 06:28, DJBOB said:

Yes we’re in a good spot statistically. It’s no flash in the pan. Just want everyone to be somewhat realistic if we start slipping into 3rd/4th place
 
Unai has said the same that our goal should be champions league and specifically mentioned some of the under performers (Chelsea, Newcastle) though I think he’s being very generous in mentioning United. 

Like Unai says, “Calma…”

I also think that we will get a lot more open teams towards the end of the year, when the relegation fodder need to at least try for 3 points or if the European chasing teams can’t settle with just a draw. 
 
Right now teams can afford to be overly negative but it won’t remain that way towards the end of the season. 

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