Race for Champions League - 2023/2024

[MrBlack]

Sure I heard that we've used fewer players than any other club in the league. 

Whilst it feels like we've rotated fairly well, and I assume our rotation options have far more minutes than most of the other teams that have used more subs, it does highlight that we might start struggling if we get more injuries or don't strengthen further in January. 

With presumably trying to win the Conference league, and trying to maintain our Champions League form, it is far from a given that we'll achieve both aims.

I'm not yet at the expecting champions league stage, and I'd happily win the Conference league instead, but hopefully injuries are kind to us second half of the season and we add 1 or 2 new bodies in Jan to ease the load.  I'd then be expecting us to get a top 4 place, and cope with a final cup run. 

[Pongo Waring]

I think injuries will play a big part on deciding who's the top 4 are. If we can avoid them I think 4th is ours now.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Pongo Waring

[wishywashy]

I think by this point, barring a huge drop-off, it's highly likely we'll get Europe in some capacity this season: from the league table alone you can argue that only 8 teams are really in the running for Europe (bar anyone doing a Villa) and I'm not too sure that Brighton and United (especially the latter) can sustain their current form. 

In terms of xG we're very much performing like a Champions League team: probably the 4th/5th best team at the moment. The key teams we have to keep an eye on are Newcastle and Spurs if we want Champions League. It's been good to get a bit of a head start on them and capitalise on their patchy periods. Keep up our performances and Champions League won't look unlikely.

[wishywashy]

Team strength models and projections are always funny and definitely have to be taken with a pinch of salt (even the better ones like 538, RIP) but this is a pretty clear indication that the clubs we'll have to keep an eye on over the season will end up being Spurs and Newcastle. Hopefully the magic of the co-efficients will mean 5th place ends up being a CL spot, so it'll end up being 2 spaces for 3 teams instead of just 1 space.

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by wishywashy

[Vive_La_Villa]

5 minutes ago, wishywashy said:

Team strength models and projections are always funny and definitely have to be taken with a pinch of salt (even the better ones like 538, RIP) but this is a pretty clear indication that the clubs we'll have to keep an eye on over the season will end up being Spurs and Newcastle. Hopefully the magic of the co-efficients will mean 5th place ends up being a CL spot, so it'll end up being 2 spaces for 3 teams instead of just 1 space.

 

Man U look a shambles but wouldn’t rule them out just yet.

[wishywashy]

6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Man U look a shambles but wouldn’t rule them out just yet.

They're such a weird team. Not remotely performing like European contenders: let alone CL ones, a lot of their results have come rather late, and they've just scored just 18 goals (1 fewer than Luton and Forest have). Yet they manage to keep plodding on. You'd imagine something has to give sooner than later but stranger things have happened.

[nick76]

6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Man U look a shambles but wouldn’t rule them out just yet.

I’m with Emery.  Let’s keep our head down, focus on each game and then look at the table after about 30 games.  Spurs showed how quickly it can fall away in the space of a few weeks.  Let’s just keep going, forget others and see where that gets us.  If we start worrying about others it’ll affects us…we know that if we keep going as we are and keep it up then we’ll get a CL spot and it doesn’t matter what others do.

[Vive_La_Villa]

20 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I’m with Emery.  Let’s keep our head down, focus on each game and then look at the table after about 30 games.  Spurs showed how quickly it can fall away in the space of a few weeks.  Let’s just keep going, forget others and see where that gets us.  If we start worrying about others it’ll affects us…we know that if we keep going as we are and keep it up then we’ll get a CL spot and it doesn’t matter what others do.

Agree, just keep enjoying each game as it comes. Stay under the radar and keep picking up points.

[beachboys1]

heard on tv if man utd and newcastle go out a group stage it damages chances for fith  place qualification

[sidcow]

On 07/12/2023 at 22:19, mrchnry said:

If we best Arsenal I'm going streaking 

 

[tomsky_11]

Since the 01/02 season (first with 4 CL places):

• Only one team with at least 35 points after 16 games has finished outside the top 4. That was Leicester in 19/20, who finished 5th on 62 points after being 38 from 16.
• Only once has a team in 5th with 30 points or more after 16 games (7 occurrences) made the top 4. This is Spurs' current record.
• Only twice in 14 occurrences has a team in 6th with 27 points or more (Man Utd's current record) made the top 4. Both times this side had 28 points.
• Sides in 3rd with a gap of 5 points or more to 5th after 16 games have never finished the season outside the top 4 (9 occurrences)
• In the 13 other seasons, where the side in 3rd has had a smaller gap to 5th, only twice has that side finished outside the top 4.
• Only 4 sides in the top 3 after 16 games have finished outside the top 4. All 4 finished 5th.
• Only twice has a team with 35 points or more after 16 games scored fewer than 70 points come the end of the season, Leicester as mentioned above, and Spurs in 11/12 who finished on 69 points in 4th.

 

[Sulberto21]

4 hours ago, wishywashy said:

Team strength models and projections are always funny and definitely have to be taken with a pinch of salt (even the better ones like 538, RIP) but this is a pretty clear indication that the clubs we'll have to keep an eye on over the season will end up being Spurs and Newcastle. Hopefully the magic of the co-efficients will mean 5th place ends up being a CL spot, so it'll end up being 2 spaces for 3 teams instead of just 1 space.

 

When was the last time we had 0% of relegation and Man U had a higher %ge chance of it than us  

[sidcow]

Can't believe some people are trying to kid that Buendia, Mings, Moreno and JJ aren't actually that key to us. 

They were all regulars in last seasons run where our form was champions league qualification from. 

We've essentially been without 4 champions league qualifying quality players. 

We may have replaced some of their qualities but from the point of view of dealing with injuries, squad rotation, maintaining intensity without a fall in quality we've been severely hampered without them.

Our bench has already been strong. It could have been insanely strong. We're now in the realm where 2 or 3 points extra a season can make the world of difference. That's what squad depth brings you. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by sidcow

[Vive_La_Villa]

10 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Can't believe some people are trying to kid that Buendia, Mings, Moreno and JJ aren't actually that key to us. 

They were all regulars in last seasons run where our form was champions league qualification from. 

We've essentially been without 4 champions league qualifying quality players. 

We may have replaced some of their qualities but from the point of view of dealing with injuries, squad rotation, maintaining intensity without a fall in quality we've been severely hampered without them.

Our bench has already been strong. It could have been insanely strong. We're now in the realm where 2 or 3 points extra a season can make the world of difference. That's what squad depth brings you. 

I don’t think anybody is saying they are not key players. They are just players in positions where we have quality cover so the loss hasnt been felt as badly as it would be if we lost players like Emi, Watkins and maybe Luiz or Kamara.  Of course it would have been great to have them available and the return of Moreno and Ramsey has come at a great time. 

[tomsky_11]

56 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Can't believe some people are trying to kid that Buendia, Mings, Moreno and JJ aren't actually that key to us. 

They were all regulars in last seasons run where our form was champions league qualification from. 

We've essentially been without 4 champions league qualifying quality players. 

We may have replaced some of their qualities but from the point of view of dealing with injuries, squad rotation, maintaining intensity without a fall in quality we've been severely hampered without them.

Our bench has already been strong. It could have been insanely strong. We're now in the realm where 2 or 3 points extra a season can make the world of difference. That's what squad depth brings you. 

Mings for all his defensive qualities could not do what Torres does on the ball, while Carlos and Konsa between them have stepped up to cover the leadership and defensive qualities Mings brings. Assuming Mings gets back to the same levels he was at pre-injury, I don't see him being more than cover/rotation option going forward. And, honestly I think we are in a better position now than we would've been with him. A point made on today's Athletic podcast was that the defensive system we were likely to utilise with Mings fit was perhaps less natural to Torres and may have required a period of learning (from everyone, not just Torres) that might have made us worse off.

Buendia, again hard to say we have massively missed him. Would he have been a more productive option than Zaniolo so far? Probably. But Zaniolo himself is only a rotation option, and Tielemans and Bailey stepping up to their current levels alongside McGinn and Diaby I think have more than made up for Buendia's loss and maybe doesn't happen as quickly, if at all, with Buendia taking minutes from them. With Ramsey back to add to this as well, Buendia is probably 6th choice for the three advanced midfield roles. On balance I don't think we'd be better off at this stage with him not getting injured.

I think JJ and Moreno have been the bigger losses. Moreno is still the preferred option at left back for me, though Digne has been great this season. Moreno brings different attacking qualities that I think better suit how we want to go forward, though Digne will always be important to provide an alternative approach. JJ, like Moreno, adds attacking qualities that we have lacked at times this season.

Edited December 11, 2023 by tomsky_11

[Adman]

6 hours ago, beachboys1 said:

heard on tv if man utd and newcastle go out a group stage it damages chances for fith  place qualification

Good, that not only damages them this season but if we finish top 4 - then  Chelsea, man utd, spurs and Newcastle etc miss out next year too. The more disruption to the established elite clubs / state owned sports wash vehicles and their business models the better.

[sidcow]

7 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Mings for all his defensive qualities could not do what Torres does on the ball, while Carlos and Konsa between them have stepped up to cover the leadership and defensive qualities Mings brings. Assuming Mings gets back to the same levels he was at pre-injury, I don't see him being more than cover/rotation option going forward. And, honestly I think we are in a better position now than we would've been with him. A point made on today's Athletic podcast was that the defensive system we were likely to utilise with Mings fit was perhaps less natural to Torres and may have required a period of learning (from everyone, not just Torres) that might have made us worse off.

Buendia, again hard to say we have massively missed him. Would he have been a more productive option than Zaniolo so far? Probably. But Zaniolo himself is only a rotation option, and Tielemans and Bailey stepping up to their current levels alongside McGinn and Diaby I think have more than made up for Buendia's loss and maybe doesn't happen as quickly, if at all, with Buendia taking minutes from them. With Ramsey back to add to this as well, Buendia is probably 6th choice for the three advanced midfield roles. On balance I don't think we'd be better off at this stage with him not getting injured.

I think JJ and Moreno have been the bigger losses. Moreno is still the preferred option at left back for me, though Digne has been great this season. Moreno brings different attacking qualities that I think better suit how we want to go forward, though Digne will always be important to provide an alternative approach. JJ, like Moreno, adds attacking qualities that we have lacked at times this season.

I rest my case m'lud. 

[Mark Albrighton]

If say Torres becomes injured through fatigue or he injured in a game where you would think he might have been rested, then you can argue Mings’ injury has helped create the scenario for Torres to pick up an injury.

Fwiw, I think the starting defensive pair next season would likely be Konsa and Torres. But I also think (hope) that we have quite a lot of games that rotation will be fairly common. Carlos for instance is playing a lot more than I thought he would be. I would not be in a rush to discount the likes of Mings and Buendia each playing a significant role next season.

[duke313]

16 hours ago, beachboys1 said:

heard on tv if man utd and newcastle go out a group stage it damages chances for fith  place qualification

We don't need to worry about 5th, we're getting 4th 

Let Spurs, United and Newcastle fight it out for 5th 

[Pongo Waring]

We all laughed him at him at the time... but Tony Xia will be having the last laugh in prison
3 years left for his prediction to come true and its looking good.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Pongo Waring