viivvaa66 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 10 hours ago, Vancvillan said: Don't bookmakers use models for base spreads but leave total of all outcomes under 100% and then adjust based on what people bet on? Genuinely curious, no idea how it works. Bookmakers have to set the initial odds, if the pundits bets heavenly against the odds they have set, they will modify them. Let’s look at the odds for the match against Newcastle: Villa win: 5/2 Draw: 5/2 Newcastle win: 21/20 Here the bookmakers clearly thinks that Newcastle will win, and I would assume the betting pundits agree with them. Let say you put £20 pounds on each of the three outcomes, in total £60, you get £70 if the result were to be a Villa win or a draw, a £10 profit. But lose £19 if Newcastle won. So they don’t leave the total of the all outcomes below 100%, they will try to tempt you with good odds on result they don’t think would happen. Going back to the original discussion, if we win on Saturday, it will increase the probability of us getting into top 6, because it wasn’t expected that we got 3 points here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 14, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted April 14, 2023 Man Utd -- tough European games, Martinez injured, FA cup semi this month too , fixtures piling up and difficult Premier League games vs Tottenham and...us at the end of April. If they don't beat Forest on Sunday and we beat Newcastle (two big ifs!), they'll start to look catchable... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 1 hour ago, fightoffyour said: Man Utd -- tough European games, Martinez injured, FA cup semi this month too , fixtures piling up and difficult Premier League games vs Tottenham and...us at the end of April. If they don't beat Forest on Sunday and we beat Newcastle (two big ifs!), they'll start to look catchable... United have Brighton in the league as well at some point. It's a double-edged sword, on one hand it would be great to catch United, but on the other we don't really want Brighton getting 3 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 14, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted April 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, duke313 said: United have Brighton in the league as well at some point. It's a double-edged sword, on one hand it would be great to catch United, but on the other we don't really want Brighton getting 3 points. The picture will much be clearer by then, otherwise draws for everyone but us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecretVillaScout Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 4 hours ago, fightoffyour said: Man Utd -- tough European games, Martinez injured, FA cup semi this month too , fixtures piling up and difficult Premier League games vs Tottenham and...us at the end of April. If they don't beat Forest on Sunday and we beat Newcastle (two big ifs!), they'll start to look catchable... I think we can overtake Manchester United and Spurs TBH. Top 4 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said: I think we can overtake Manchester United and Spurs TBH. Top 4 anyone? No way, even Emery isn’t that much of a miracle worker. 9 points behind, they have a game in hand and we only have 8 games left. Anyway, what would I know, I didn’t think we could get 7th (and we still may not) but we are in a good position for that now so I know nothing. So I’m going for 3rd place, may as well take the drugs everybody else is and enjoy the ride! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wict01 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 7th would be an exceptional effort after where we were and I'd be very happy with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaVilla Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, MaVilla said: It's decided then, Palace to win all their remaining games and finish on 57 points and qualify for Europe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, wict01 said: 7th would be an exceptional effort after where we were and I'd be very happy with that. 7th would be an exceptional effort after where we were and I'd be very happy with that. I would add to that, it would also be exceptional now because Liverpool for all their flaws have a brilliant squad, great manager and a much much easier run in and only 3 points behind with a game in hand and a much better goal difference and Brighton are 1 point behind with 2 games in hand but have massive fixture congestion. We almost have it in our own hands but we are going to have to continue being exceptional to do it and I’m glad we are in Emery’s hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa87 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, nick76 said: 7th would be an exceptional effort after where we were and I'd be very happy with that. I would add to that, it would also be exceptional now because Liverpool for all their flaws have a brilliant squad, great manager and a much much easier run in and only 3 points behind with a game in hand and a much better goal difference and Brighton are 1 point behind with 2 games in hand but have massive fixture congestion. We almost have it in our own hands but we are going to have to continue being exceptional to do it and I’m glad we are in Emery’s hands. We’re in the mix but Liverpool and Brighton in very strong positions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, Villa87 said: We’re in the mix but Liverpool and Brighton in very strong positions. Yep, it’s making the end of season very exciting. We have a great chance of European football next season if we can finish the season well. C’mon Villa! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Willard Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 With United's new injuries worries it's not going to be plain sailing for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, Lord Willard said: With United's new injuries worries it's not going to be plain sailing for them. And they were talking about a Quad a few months ago. They could end up with the Fizzy drinks Cup and drop out of the top 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Seventh would be a great achievement. However Villa are currently sixth and have confidence on our side. Whether one is taking drugs or not isn't the issue, what is more pertinent is that whilst it is mathematically possible top four is still within reach. Spuds are shaking, Man Poo also, who knows? One thing for sure is Emery has instilled confidence in the Villa team, more than can be said for some of the fans. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecretVillaScout Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 (edited) The 'Big 6' are trying to stop and destroy Villa's confidence by paying the media, wanna be pundits and flat earthers to say how Villa are lucky and how the XG is lower then the current output. To knock our players confidence. I don't see them studying any other teams XG. Think to yourself why. They're rattled that we're 6th and will do anything to stop us. We cant let them win. We need to finish in the top 6! Edited April 14, 2023 by SecretVillaScout 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMitch Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said: The 'Big 6' are trying to stop and destroy Villa's confidence by paying the media, wanna be pundits and flat earthers to say how Villa are lucky and how the XG is lower then the current output. To knock our players confidence. I don't see them studying any other teams XG. Think to yourself why. They're rattled that we're 6th and will do anything to stop us. We cant let them win. We need to finish in the top 6! I love a good conspiracy, but this is downright hilarious... Nobody is paying the media off or trying to knock our players' confidence. People just started to notice that we're in the European conversation this past week. I love how we're playing right now but anyone who has watched all our games this season knows we've been lucky to win as many as we have. I'm not trying to downplay what we've achieved so far, but we have the hardest run in of all the teams in the Prem and we'll need every ounce of luck we can get to finish above 8th. My heart wants us to win every one of our last games and have us finish 4th, but my head tells me we'll most likely finish 8th and I'll still be over the moon at what Emery has accomplished so far. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 14, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted April 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said: The 'Big 6' are trying to stop and destroy Villa's confidence by paying the media, wanna be pundits and flat earthers to say how Villa are lucky and how the XG is lower then the current output. To knock our players confidence. I don't see them studying any other teams XG. Think to yourself why. They're rattled that we're 6th and will do anything to stop us. We cant let them win. We need to finish in the top 6! Trying too hard now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WallisFrizz Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said: The 'Big 6' are trying to stop and destroy Villa's confidence by paying the media, wanna be pundits and flat earthers to say how Villa are lucky and how the XG is lower then the current output. To knock our players confidence. I don't see them studying any other teams XG. Think to yourself why. They're rattled that we're 6th and will do anything to stop us. We cant let them win. We need to finish in the top 6! I honestly don’t think it’s that deep. We’ve had a good run, caught the attention of people who write and talk about football and they’ve realised that we’ve pulled together a good run of results without playing brilliantly. We know this. We’ve been very effective. I agree that it’s up to us to prove doubters wrong by making the run last longer than they expect it to but some of the analysis has been fair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, WallisFrizz said: I honestly don’t think it’s that deep. We’ve had a good run, caught the attention of people who write and talk about football and they’ve realised that we’ve pulled together a good run of results without playing brilliantly. We know this. We’ve been very effective. I agree that it’s up to us to prove doubters wrong by making the run last longer than they expect it to but some of the analysis has been fair. That's what the top teams do, win when not playing that well. Then when you start playing well again you roll teams over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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