nick76 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 (edited) 23 hours ago, tomsky_11 said: Strength of remaining schedule based on home/away splits of opponent's ppg rather than total. The middle section "Schedule (points)" is the expected remaining points earned in remaining games (and then expected final points when this is added to current points) based on average total points earned per match minus the average opponent's ppg. The right hand side section (also titled "Schedule (points)") is the same as the middle section but flexed based on % over/underperformance of the listed team compared to the average expected home or away ppg. And here's the same summary, but figures for Brighton, Chelsea and us are based on performance under current management only. Obviously our excellent away form under Emery is skewing this summary a fair bit. However you look at it, Chelsea have the hardest schedule and need the biggest turnaround in form to even get close to top 7. But this is meaningless isn’t it! Small sample data, many changing factors that have happened, misses so many other factors…as somebody with a finance and stats background, I don’t get the point of this to provide useful insight for the future more than let’s say, educated guesswork especially when a point or two, or a strange individual result either way makes a huge difference. Edited March 22, 2023 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, nick76 said: But this is meaningless isn’t it! Small sample data, many changing factors that have happened, misses so many other factors…as somebody with a finance and stats background, I don’t get the point of this to provide useful insight for the future more than let’s say, educated guesswork especially when a point or two, or a strange individual result either way makes a huge difference. Obvious caveats to the data are obvious. Not sure there's much value in me pointing them out everytime. I was not under the impression I'd just predicted the future There'd been discussion previously about ppg analysis of remaining schedules. Someone had said it doesn't take variation in home and away form into account. So here's the data, with all the obvious caveats that comes with. Some of which I even alluded to in my post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: Obvious caveats to the data are obvious. Not sure there's much value in me pointing them out everytime. I was not under the impression I'd just predicted the future There'd been discussion previously about ppg analysis of remaining schedules. Someone had said it doesn't take variation in home and away form into account. So here's the data, with all the obvious caveats that comes with. Some of which I even alluded to in my post. Yeah I get all that, I used to do it myself back in the day. Sadly I did stats paper on Villa twenty odd years ago as part of my Uni course, so I’m a geek from yester year. I guess it was a flashback of that (but over a longer period)…and the issues I had back then with the ‘other factors’ that impact the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 The UEFA conference seems a bit of a joke. Would we want to be in that at the expense of next years league position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 hour ago, duke313 said: I think it would be too soon for Europe with this squad, even with a few quality additions in the summer. If we managed to finish 7th and get into ECL, I think we'd struggle to play well on Thursdays and weekends, it would be better in the long run if we didn't finish in Euro spots this season and made a push for it next season with Emery getting a summer window, full pre-season and full season. That tournament West Ham are in they seemed to have played a bunch of Scandinavian teams and not like their path to the final is that taxing. Our squad is light on depth but that's mainly due to letting go of Ings, Nakamba and Sanson in January because we were out of the cups and largely playing one game a week. No chance we start in September with such a weak bench. I was just looking at Dendoncker at Wolves and he started the QF v Sevilla in 2020 they lost in last minute. Bailey was also scoring a few for Leverkusen in the europa the same season so funnily enough the players people don't rate on here and would happily move on in the summer were doing well in the europa league for other teams not so long ago. Emery has an amazing record in europa league and it carries a CL spot now (which it didn't when MON was here) so if UE is going to be here next five years a long term goal has to be to win that rather than just stake everything on finishing 4th one year which will be even harder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: The UEFA conference seems a bit of a joke. Would we want to be in that at the expense of next years league position? It would be good experiane,surely ?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, VillaChris said: That tournament West Ham are in they seemed to have played a bunch of Scandinavian teams and not like their path to the final is that taxing. Our squad is light on depth but that's mainly due to letting go of Ings, Nakamba and Sanson in January because we were out of the cups and largely playing one game a week. No chance we start in September with such a weak bench. I was just looking at Dendoncker at Wolves and he started the QF v Sevilla in 2020 they lost in last minute. Bailey was also scoring a few for Leverkusen in the europa the same season so funnily enough the players people don't rate on here and would happily move on in the summer were doing well in the europa league for other teams not so long ago. Emery has an amazing record in europa league and it carries a CL spot now (which it didn't when MON was here) so if UE is going to be here next five years a long term goal has to be to win that rather than just stake everything on finishing 4th one year which will be even harder. Well, it's been pretty taxing on their league position, they're 18th. They followed a lot of them easy Thursday night wins with dropping points at the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 I’d love Europa and a crack at winning it. Not so keen on Conference. Unless we win that and then win Europa year later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted March 22, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I’d love Europa and a crack at winning it. Not so keen on Conference. Unless we win that and then win Europa year later. Not much to ask then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Follyfoot said: Not much to ask then At least I stopped there and didn’t talk about winning Champions League the year after. That will come the year after we win the league. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: At least I stopped there and didn’t talk about winning Champions League the year after. That will come the year after we win the league. Then Emery needs to win the World Cup with Villa the year after that… sorry I’m getting carried away… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condimentalist Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: The UEFA conference seems a bit of a joke. Would we want to be in that at the expense of next years league position? Tend to agree - this squad is too small to be ready for Europe, I'd like a top 10 finish, 3-4 excellent signings, and then we can try to get into the more prestigious and lucrative Europa League. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: The UEFA conference seems a bit of a joke. Would we want to be in that at the expense of next years league position? Absolutely. Would give the likes of Cam very good experience in the first team as well. No English team has won that trophy yet either, so a chance to make history there as well if that remains the same this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 3 hours ago, duke313 said: Well, it's been pretty taxing on their league position, they're 18th. They followed a lot of them easy Thursday night wins with dropping points at the weekend. They were in Europe last season as well and finished 7th. With domestic cup games as well, they'd need to make the final this year to have played more competative fixtures than last season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Zatman Posted March 22, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted March 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: The UEFA conference seems a bit of a joke. Would we want to be in that at the expense of next years league position? Roma or Mourinho didnt seem to think it was a joke last season We have no European record in over a decade so our co efficient is really low and we need to build it back up 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: They were in Europe last season as well and finished 7th. With domestic cup games as well, they'd need to make the final this year to have played more competative fixtures than last season. Emery is also not Moyes who seems to play the same players every week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Zatman said: Roma or Mourinho didnt seem to think it was a joke last season We have no European record in over a decade so our co efficient is really low and we need to build it back up I get all that. I just couldn’t handle us having a shit season in the league to get to a semi final of a conference cup. If we win it great, then it’s worth it. Just feels like league placing would suffer based on what we’ve seen with other teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I’d love Europa and a crack at winning it. Not so keen on Conference. Unless we win that and then win Europa year later. Actually Europa Conference would be good, some fringe/younger players could get games, and we also get coefficient points for each win (same points as wins in the Champions League). It’s easier to get those wins in the Conference, so long term could be really beneficial if we want to get far into European competitions in future years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Mic09 Posted March 22, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted March 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I get all that. I just couldn’t handle us having a shit season in the league to get to a semi final of a conference cup. If we win it great, then it’s worth it. Just feels like league placing would suffer based on what we’ve seen with other teams. Conference does not equal a poor league finish. Sure, it adds games and brings new challenges, mainly due to a broken up training cycle. But that cycle is no different that for other top teams in Europe. But it's also rewarding. It's a chance to get the subs/younger players on the pitch, get extra revenue, improve clubs standings, get better sponsors, get a fee European trips for fans, open VP for an extra few nights which improves the Aston/Witton commerce, get better players who will have more of a chance of making an immediate appearance. Just because we go to play in Norway and Belgium twice a month does not mean we will drop like a stone. And let's not forget where we were just 5 years ago. We would do very well to finish 7th and get a conference place. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiezels Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 I’d love any sort of euro run to be honest. Mint! Hope we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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