TomC Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) I don’t know what to expect. We could finish anywhere from 6th to 14th. To me, this season is full of questions. I’ll get to those in a minute. To figure out where we’re going this year, first you have to look at last year. Last year’s finish was deceptively low. We had an equal or better goal difference to four teams ahead of us, so we easily could have finished 10th. (Our goal difference was far better than anyone behind us, so that doesn’t cut both ways.) We gave up a few late leads, as others have pointed out. So to me, finishing 10th or 11th this year wouldn’t be any real improvement. (Nor was last year much of a backwards move from 2020-21.) Lots of players had bad years last year. Konsa, Watkins, and (before he left) Targett all regressed significantly. To a lesser degree, Emi and Mings were also a little off. Dougie and McGinn both faded in the second half again. Meanwhile, Bueni took a while to settle, Ings was underused and played provider more than striker, and Bailey spent most of the year hurt. Only Cash and Ramsey showed any real improvement. Even before you consider any new signings, we have a good chance to improve if even a few of these players get back on track. So for me, anything less than 9th would be a disappointment, and I’d really like to finish 7th or 8th. Is that realistic? Let’s get to the questions... —How long does it take Booboo to settle? If he settles quickly and proves to the DM that we’ve been waiting for, we could go places. —Deano and SG both talked a good game about rotation, but in midfield, they rarely did it, probably because they really trusted only Dougie, McGinn, and JJ. In the last two seasons, Dougie and McGinn faded after New Year’s. Now that SG has at least one more midfielder that he trusts (Booboo), and maybe a rejuvenated Sanson or a new signing-to-come, and also has more subs to use, does he actually rotate? If Dougie and McGinn stay fresh and don’t have a second-half fade again, that will boost midfield. The World Cup break also could help. —Does Dougie contribute more when he can play further forward as he seems to prefer? —Do our strikers put the ball in the net? I’ve defended Ings again and again; he had more goal contributions per 90 minutes than anyone else in the team. But we need him to be a striker, not just a provider. Meanwhile, Watkins needs to stop trying to force things, pass the ball more, and hit more chances. If Ings gets back to Southampton form, or Watkins gets back to 2020-21 form, or Archer breaks through, it will make a world of difference. —We have 6, maybe 7 candidates for the front 3: Ings, Watkins, Coutinho, Bueni, Bailey, Archer, maybe Traore. Can SG find the right combination(s) who work well together, and who link up well with midfield? Chemistry will be as important as individual performances here. With 5 subs per match, SG will be able to try different combinations. I’ll add that, while using Ings as the main striker and having Watkins play off him clearly didn’t work, they tried reversing this a couple times late last season and it seemed to work better, so I wouldn’t rule out that SG will try it again. —Can SG keep everyone happy? We have a deep squad, with competition at every position (though we could still use a bit more in midfield). Somebody is going to be unhappy with their playing time. Let’s hope that doesn’t turn into behind-the-scenes conflict. One thing I’m NOT worried about is the back line. We let in 8 more goals last year than 2020-21, but I think that we’ve fixed the problem. I have full confidence in Cash and Digne at fullback; they may not be world class, but they aren’t much more than one level below it. As for centre back, I still rate Mings as one step short of world class, and I expect that Diego Carlos will be in that category too. With the emergence of Chambers, and a decent chance that Konsa can shake off a bad year, the competition will be fierce. The chance that at least two of these four will be in-form at any given time is pretty high. Again, I think we could finish anywhere from 6th to 14th, but if I had to put money on it, I’d say 8th. I think we’ll finish ahead of Wolves, Palace, Leicester, and Brighton, but behind West Ham and the Sky 6. If ManUre continues in turmoil, and if West Ham underperforms or is distracted by Europe, maybe we could finish ahead of them, too. Given that we took 4 points from 6 against ManUre last year, and that we drew with them in this summer’s friendly, and that their goal difference was only two better than ours last year, I’m going to dream a little that we just might pass them. Edited August 5, 2022 by TomC Fixed font size (thanks PaulMcGrath_5) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulMcGrath_5 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 1 minute ago, TomC said: I don’t know what to expect. We could finish anywhere from 6th to 14th. To me, this season is full of questions. I’ll get to those in a minute. To figure out where we’re going this year, first you have to look at last year. Last year’s finish was deceptively low. We had an equal or better goal difference to four teams ahead of us, so we easily could have finished 10th. (Our goal difference was far better than anyone behind us, so that doesn’t cut both ways.) We gave up a few late leads, as others have pointed out. So to me, finishing 10th or 11th this year wouldn’t be any real improvement. (Nor was last year much of a backwards move from 2020-21.) Lots of players had bad years last year. Konsa, Watkins, and (before he left) Targett all regressed significantly. To a lesser degree, Emi and Mings were also a little off. Dougie and McGinn both faded in the second half again. Meanwhile, Bueni took a while to settle, Ings was underused and played provider more than striker, and Bailey spent most of the year hurt. Only Cash and Ramsey showed any real improvement. Even before you consider any new signings, we have a good chance to improve if even a few of these players get back on track. So for me, anything less than 9th would be a disappointment, and I’d really like to finish 7th or 8th. Is that realistic? Let’s get to the questions... —How long does it take Booboo to settle? If he settles quickly and proves to the DM that we’ve been waiting for, we could go places. —Deano and SG both talked a good game about rotation, but in midfield, they rarely did it, probably because they really trusted only Dougie, McGinn, and JJ. In the last two seasons, Dougie and McGinn faded after New Year’s. Now that SG has at least one more midfielder that he trusts (Booboo), and maybe a rejuvenated Sanson or a new signing-to-come, and also has more subs to use, does he actually rotate? If Dougie and McGinn stay fresh and don’t have a second-half fade again, that will boost midfield. The World Cup break also could help. —Does Dougie contribute more when he can play further forward as he seems to prefer? —Do our strikers put the ball in the net? I’ve defended Ings again and again; he had more goal contributions per 90 minutes than anyone else in the team. But we need him to be a striker, not just a provider. Meanwhile, Watkins needs to stop trying to force things, pass the ball more, and hit more chances. If Ings gets back to Southampton form, or Watkins gets back to 2020-21 form, or Archer breaks through, it will make a world of difference. —We have 6, maybe 7 candidates for the front 3: Ings, Watkins, Coutinho, Bueni, Bailey, Archer, maybe Traore. Can SG find the right combination(s) who work well together, and who link up well with midfield? Chemistry will be as important as individual performances here. With 5 subs per match, SG will be able to try different combinations. I’ll add that, while using Ings as the main striker and having Watkins play off him clearly didn’t work, they tried reversing this a couple times late last season and it seemed to work better, so I wouldn’t rule out that SG will try it again. —Can SG keep everyone happy? We have a deep squad, with competition at every position (though we could still use a bit more in midfield). Somebody is going to be unhappy with their playing time. Let’s hope that doesn’t turn into behind-the-scenes conflict. One thing I’m NOT worried about is the back line. We let in 8 more goals last year than 2020-21, but I think that we’ve fixed the problem. I have full confidence in Cash and Digne at fullback; they may not be world class, but they aren’t much more than one level below it. As for centre back, I still rate Mings as one step short of world class, and I expect that Diego Carlos will be in that category too. With the emergence of Chambers, and a decent chance that Konsa can shake off a bad year, the competition will be fierce. The chance that at least two of these four will be in-form at any given time is pretty high. Again, I think we could finish anywhere from 6th to 14th, but if I had to put money on it, I’d say 8th. I think we’ll finish ahead of Wolves, Palace, Leicester, and Brighton, but behind West Ham and the Sky 6. If ManUre continues in turmoil, and if West Ham underperforms or is distracted by Europe, maybe we could finish ahead of them, too. Given that we took 4 points from 6 against ManUre last year, and that we drew with them in this summer’s friendly, and that their goal difference was only two better than ours last year, I’m going to dream a little that we just might pass them. No need to shout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted August 5, 2022 Author Share Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, AvonVillain said: Yet to sign a single player, sold their legendary keeper to Nice, their best defender to Chelsea, and rumoured to be losing their main playmaker to Newcastle. Leicester have no chance of finishing top half. *Edit* also rumoured to be in financial trouble, which makes sense in view of lack of signings and players leaving sinking ship. Leicester have said today that Fofana and Maddison aren’t for sale, so it’s not a given they are going! If those don’t go they will be likely above us. Edited August 5, 2022 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, nick76 said: Leicester have said today that Fofana and Maddison aren’t for sale, so it’s not a given they are going! If those don’t go they will be likely above us. They wont finish above us. Still have enough very good players and a very decent manager but they just haven’t reinforced, they have stood still, and indeed, sold Schmeichel, Maddison’s form has dropped and Vardy is fading fast. Edited August 5, 2022 by thunderball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, thunderball said: They wont finish above us. Still have decent -layers and a very decent manager but they just haven’t reinforced, they have stood still - never good. They've stood still but they've got some key players back from injury. I don't think our squad is better than theirs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, thunderball said: They wont finish above us. Still have enough very good players and a very decent manager but they just haven’t reinforced, they have stood still, and indeed, sold Schmeichel, Maddison’s form has dropped and Vardy is fading fast. They'll still win plenty of games. Maddison actually was really good for most of last season and Fofana pretty much missed the whole campaign so if they can keep both that will be huge. Vardy also had a very good scoring end to the season although picking up loads of injuries these days. Far more confident we'll finish above Wolves than Leicester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, thunderball said: They wont finish above us. Still have enough very good players and a very decent manager but they just haven’t reinforced, they have stood still, and indeed, sold Schmeichel, Maddison’s form has dropped and Vardy is fading fast. Vardy might be fading but he still scored 15 in 25 last season 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Django_Zooms Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 Mike Dean has retired = Top 6 place for The Villa. (And no penalty awards to Bruno Fernandes.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 1 minute ago, DCJonah said: They've stood still but they've got some key players back from injury. I don't think our squad is better than theirs. GK, defence and forward line is all better, Midfield might prove to be an equal or better. Also convinced we might see more arrivals, we are leaving nothing to chance. I think our quality in depth is better too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Zatman said: Vardy might be fading but he still scored 15 in 25 last season Excellent striker, I love him but hate him, some one I wish we had but he can’t have a season like last season, surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted August 5, 2022 Author Share Posted August 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, thunderball said: They wont finish above us. Still have enough very good players and a very decent manager but they just haven’t reinforced, they have stood still, and indeed, sold Schmeichel, Maddison’s form has dropped and Vardy is fading fast. Fair enough, i don’t agree and I think they’ll be fine and finish above us again. We still have a way to go before we can be above them and West Ham. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, thunderball said: GK, defence and forward line is all better, Midfield might prove to be an equal or better. Also convinced we might see more arrivals, we are leaving nothing to chance. I think our quality in depth is better too? Potentially yes. I do think people forget the issues they had last year. They've got a strong squad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 After tomorrow I'm either opening a title charge or relegation battle thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 Palace rubbish Arsenal average Top 7 incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, messi11 said: Palace rubbish Arsenal average Top 7 incoming You should have watched the game, it was great to have PL back and Palace were very good in the 2nd half. Maybe u can get some highlights on youtube or sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 36 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: After tomorrow I'm either opening a title charge or relegation battle thread. I think either of those would be a bit premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, Peter Griffin said: You should have watched the game, it was great to have PL back and Palace were very good in the 2nd half. Maybe u can get some highlights on youtube or sky I did watch the game and wasn't impressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 @Tomaszk I love the 'like' for messi11 for Palace rubbish and Arsenal average Tomaszk Established Member 12k Location: On the dancefloor Posted 2 hours ago Arsenal been good. Impressed with Palace staying in it though. A point is there for them here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 34 minutes ago, Peter Griffin said: @Tomaszk I love the 'like' for messi11 for Palace rubbish and Arsenal average Tomaszk Established Member 12k Location: On the dancefloor Posted 2 hours ago Arsenal been good. Impressed with Palace staying in it though. A point is there for them here. By the power of Gabriel Jesus...you must get tired of being wrong at some point? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Tomaszk said: By the power of Gabriel Jesus...you must get tired of being wrong at some point? Clearly something you don't suffer from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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