Genie Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, sidcow said: It was always the plan but it's backfired somewhat as inflation has stayed high longer than he thought I think He though it was a “gimme” and it would track down alongside the US, but alas, it was not to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Just had a look at his pledges He might just about get away with the halving inflation pledge but it won’t be as comfortable as he thought. Economy growing, nope. Better paid jobs, not if they are working in the public sector. Debt falling, nope NHS waiting lists cut, nope Stopping small boats, nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 11 hours ago, blandy said: That’s not right, really. Government can choose to do many things. Ours chooses not to. Here are just a few things that government can do. Windfall tax on excessive profits. Price controls. Subsidise costs (like with gas). Reduce VAT rates and so on. Im not saying these are good or bad or even appropriate, but just that as @sidcow exposes (Kenny), the government is doing nothing whatsoever and has no “plan” to do anything other than try and keep public sector wages down and watch public services crumble. Interest rates are a poor tool. There’s a massive lag between rate rises and any impact each rise has. Only 28% of people have mortgages, and many of those are on fixed rates. Loans, businesses loans, government borrowing costs and the value of the pound are all affected much more rapidly, but not necessarily in a good way. Those are things governments can do. But they won't curb inflation and mostly just fuel it. Windfall taxes have nothing to do with controlling inflation. They are there so the government can get a share of the additional revenue certain industries make during inflation spikes. Price controls are the worst thing that can be done in an inflationary environment. Only tinpot countries do them as they don't understand basics of free markets. If it costs £50 to make and sell something (raw materials, staff, production, transport etc..) but the Government put a price control in at £45 you can't make a profit from this anymore. So you leave the market. This reduces supply which makes the problems worse. It leads to the rise in black markets as a result. Subsidise costs can only work in a target way like Energy, but again if you interject in a market like this you don't have a key effect take place which is for people to buy/use less of the thing which now costs more, thus reducing some of the demand. The government helping with energy prices worked because they allowed enough of the price rises to go on consumer and took on some of the cost directly. Also the government couldn't do this with other parts like clothes prices, hotel costs, transport costs or any number of goods. Reducing VAT lowers government income, that's needed for all manner of things, funding NHS etc.. also if we reduce the price of things we don't reduce the demand of things as higher prices themselves slow inflation by reducing demand if on average wages do lag inflation. The one thing we can totally agree on is there is no Government plan. There really can't be one either. What there is, is the Government pretending there is a plan and their inflation target. They know they have absolutely nothing to do with controlling inflation. The independent Bank of England's purpose for it's independent existence is to control inflation. They are tackling it, Tories want to be able to take credit for that if the inflation drops. How interest rates work is not simply down to mortgages. Interest rates rising has multiple impacts on an economy. People save more as rates rise and people borrow less. Companies don't borrow as much and expand as credit is expensive for them. They are slow to have an impact however and we're in a unique situation where massive covid stimulus from printing money, household savings rising due to lockdowns, global supply chains hit and a massive energy spike due to war all combined to create big inflation spikes. It's hard to solve such freak events like this. Inflation needs to be stopped early or it's a terrible beast that is hard to stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted August 17, 2023 Moderator Share Posted August 17, 2023 10 hours ago, CVByrne said: Windfall taxes have nothing to do with controlling inflation. I disagree with most of your post, but it’s kind of tangential. Part of the reason why inflation is high right now is profiteering. Companies increasing their margins and making excess profit. This is where windfall tax can help. Whatever, here’s how governments can and have acted Quote The reason is more forceful management of the economy – the Spanish government took quicker, more concerted action than ours did. Spain cappedenergy prices by more than the UK, lowered the cost of public transport,taxed excess profits and put in place limits on how much landlords can raise rents. While also coming with costs, this kept inflation from spreading more widely and more persistently than elsewhere. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/03/spain-inflation-lower-bank-england-interest-rates 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister_a Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 (edited) On 16/08/2023 at 08:13, desensitized43 said: https://news.sky.com/story/the-big-short-investor-michael-burry-bets-1-6bn-on-stock-market-crash-12940826 Well this is slightly concerning but I have to say I’m not surprised. Definitely feels like we’re coming to the edge of a precipice. He's predicted 9 of the last 2 stock market crashes Edited August 17, 2023 by Mister_a Clarity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mister_a said: He's predicted 9 of the last 2 stock market crashes Wait, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister_a Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Seat68 said: Wait, what? He keeps making predictions that are wrong, but the one time he was right he made tons of money 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Mister_a said: He keeps making predictions that are wrong, but the one time he was right he made tons of money Ah, sorry, I thought you were being totally serious. Good work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, blandy said: I disagree with most of your post, but it’s kind of tangential. Part of the reason why inflation is high right now is profiteering. Companies increasing their margins and making excess profit. This is where windfall tax can help. Whatever, here’s how governments can and have acted https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/03/spain-inflation-lower-bank-england-interest-rates I agree, an like I've said before no disrespect to @CVByrne but he talks like a typical banker, like there's only 1 way out this ****, to profit the banks and make the less well off with mortgages, so poor they can't afford to spend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chrisp65 Posted August 17, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 17, 2023 Northumbrian Water doubled their CEO’s bonus this year. They also paid out £159 Million in shareholder dividends. They also pumped shit on to beaches, and made a pre tax loss of £50 million. Wilko took out loans to pay the owners bonuses, the pension fund is mysteriously short. It ain’t shop workers and rail ticket office staff with mortgages causing inflation. We’re being ripped off by a thieving system. Let’s not dress it up with business speak about who’s got what levers to nudge what parts of the economy. We’re being robbed. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 I went other day and it was £1.49 at hell We are getting **** ripped off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted August 17, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted August 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: I went other day and it was £1.49 at hell We are getting **** ripped off Your soul is worth more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: I went other day and it was £1.49 at hell We are getting **** ripped off I’ve been there (and back). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 17, 2023 Moderator Share Posted August 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: I went other day and it was £1.49 at hell We are getting **** ripped off No doubt the pearly gates are charging Disneyland prices 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 On 16/08/2023 at 09:23, foreveryoung said: A pal of mine has finally give in to his £1400 a month mortgage and gone to the bank for the help they are supposed to be offering. Don't quote me, but I think he was saying, they have offered him a 3 month payment break which will end up costing him around another £6800 ontop of his 16 year mortgage, or pay 50% for 3 months, which is a extra £4000 ontop of the mortgage including interest, both will cost him more on his monthly payments, dont really sound like much help. Cheers Santander A 3 month payment break is still useful and could be the difference between keeping a house or losing a house for some people. Let's say someone has just lost their job, but expects to get a similar paying job in the next few months. Also, it won't really cost anything like the figures quoted, as long as once times are better he just overpays to catch up on the missed payments. 6 months payment holiday would have been better though and they might offer that later if his specific circumstances make it worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: We’re being robbed. And the mugs plopped into the traps, the plebs and forelock tuggers got a proper shoeing from the posh boys (hoorah!), and the country lived shittily ever after. Who could've seen it coming? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted August 17, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted August 17, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, foreveryoung said: I agree, an like I've said before no disrespect to @CVByrne but he talks like a typical banker, like there's only 1 way out this ****, to profit the banks and make the less well off with mortgages, so poor they can't afford to spend. I don't want to answer for @CVByrne but I think most of his posts are explaining why things are being done the way they are, not necessarily defending it. And why things that other people are suggesting won't work He's got far more knowledge on this subject than most, if not all, of us on VT Edited August 17, 2023 by Stevo985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Quote Annual energy bills for a typical household are expected to fall slightly to £1,926 from October, according to a new forecast. Consultancy firm Cornwall Insight predicts bills could drop by £148 under a new official price cap set to be announced by Ofgem next week. The energy price cap limits how much suppliers can charge households for each unit of energy they use. But bills still remain far higher than before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A little bit of good news, probably offset by the rise in petrol/diesel that’s going largely under the radar. link 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 3, 2023 Share Posted September 3, 2023 On Laura K’s show, the Chancellor just said he believes (via the BoE) that inflation will increase in September. The plan (which is do nothing) is still working apparently, because it’ll be lower next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 3, 2023 Share Posted September 3, 2023 A recession was always on the cards, it is seen as the lesser of 2 evils when compared to out of control inflation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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