The AVFC FFP thread

[ender4]

6 minutes ago, Tubby said:

Is it the case with PSR, that a contract renewal extends the amortisation period?

 

Yes it does. 

[phily85]

4 hours ago, sharkyvilla said:

I said in another thread Kamara might be the next one to move on in 2025 for PSR purposes.  He'll be down to 2 years on his contract and I'd have thought a new one would make him pretty much top earner.  If Enzo settles in well then I'd say it's even more likely.

I agree and with him coming in for free it will still be down as pure profit I assume , I think selling a player that nobody is expecting each season will become the norm.

To be honest I may be wrong but I thought Monchi was known for having to sell a big name player and rebuilding squads

[AndFos]

9 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

 

Assuming these numbers are in the right ballpark (I believe they wont be hugely off), as you can see, we would be required to generate about £93m profit on player sales in 24/25 period (this includes June next year).

These numbers could be off by £10-20 million, but for the sake of it let's assume they are right.

We sell this summer:

Duran £26m PSR profit

Carlos £3m PSR profit

Digne £7m PSR profit

Cash £20m PSR profit

KKH £4m PSR profit

Bogarde £4m PSR profit

Total: £64m PSR profit

 

Next June we will then have to raise £29m PSR profit. This could be done by selling one profile player, or some youth players + 1 or 2 squad players.

 

But the year after it looks very good (if we continue to have around the same income), as we then loose the £-94,7m PSR year. The two years in the calculation would then have £-10,3m, allowing the third year to have a -£94,7m PSR loss. This with a much higher revenue than the year we had the last -£94,7m PSR loss, thus giving us a year where we can spend lots of £.

Therefore it is very important for us to keep the incomes high. The way to do this is to get results, and to get results we will need good signings.  If we get 5-6 good signings each year, we can sell 3-4 what then becomes squad players each summer (even next summer), but still holds a decent value. This is how our management and owners are thinking. An exciting summer ahead.

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 22:08 by AndFos
*Edited PSR profit for Duran from £30m to £26m and to include Bogarde sale.

[Cmac]

Not sure in January we thought we would get 29 million for Tim and Kellyman ( maybe expected more for Luiz) . Real skill now is moving on squad players. Say Duran will go and Archer so could get about 50m for them. Then Digne another 15m. Dendonker maybe 5m so overall sales of 130m this summer would be some return for potentially only losing 1 guaranteed starter. 

[AndFos]

Archer will have book value equal to what we would be likely to sell him for this summer because we bought him back. Dendoncker we will struggle to get money for because of high salary. Digne has some book value left, so if we sell him for £15m, not all of it will be PSR profit. But we would save a lot in wages.

You are absolutely right regarding the key will be to be able to sell the squad players and youth for decent money.

[ender4]

38 minutes ago, AndFos said:

Duran £30m PSR profit

We bought him for £18m so £9m value left. Will probably sell him for £20m, so £11m profit. 

[AndFos]

30 minutes ago, ender4 said:

We bought him for £18m so £9m value left. Will probably sell him for £20m, so £11m profit. 

I think we will sell him for £35m, so I guess the PSR profit should have been £26m for him.

 

Edited Sunday at 21:53 by AndFos

[MaVilla]

8 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

Quick projection of our 24/25 PSR situation (not meant to be 100% accurate, just an illustration that 24/25 could be as challenging as 23/24 has been)

Assumptions:

22/23 - based on actual published accounts

23/24 - based on Swiss Rumble estimations, so please don`t argue with me on these.

24/25 - revenue based on us finishing 6th in the league, banking £60m from CL and generous increases in both Commercial and Match Day. Factoring in Coutinho write-off. Wages and amortisation not changed, as they are impossible to calculate before the transfer window is shut. 

 

Assuming these numbers are in the right ballpark (I believe they wont be hugely off), as you can see, we would be required to generate about £93m profit on player sales in 24/25 period (this includes June next year).

I don't believe this would be possible by simply offloading deadwood and Duran. Most likely another 1st team player would need to follow Dougie next June.

So is this going to seriously limit our spending power this summer?

It looks like it would, as it would be 93m needed, plus a proportion of any money spent, so could easily rise to 120/130/140m needed, depending on players we buy this summer?

im sure the club knows what it is doing, but it feels a little seat of our pants?

[MaVilla]

1 hour ago, AndFos said:

These numbers could be off by £10-20 million, but for the sake of it let's assume they are right.

We sell this summer:

Duran £26m PSR profit

Carlos £3m PSR profit

Digne £7m PSR profit

Cash £20m PSR profit

KKH £4m PSR profit

Total: £60m PSR profit

 

Next June we will then have to raise £33m PSR profit. This could be done by selling one profile player, or some youth players + 1 or 2 squad players.

 

But the year after it looks very good (if we continue to have around the same income), as we then loose the £-94,7m PSR year. The two years in the calculation would then have £-10,3m, allowing the third year to have a -£94,7m PSR loss. This with a much higher revenue than the year we had the last -£94,7m PSR loss, thus giving us a year where we can spend lots of £.

Therefore it is very important for us to keep the incomes high. The way to do this is to get results, and to get results we will need good signings.  If we get 5-6 good signings each year, we can sell 3-4 what then becomes squad players each summer (even next summer), but still holds a decent value. This is how our management and owners are thinking. An exciting summer ahead.

 

 

 

is there a reason you didnt factor in Archer - 10m ish, Donk - maybe 5m?, Chambers - prob free, but even 1m would be something!

was the Forest offer for Bogarde genuine?, that was alleged to be a 4m bid.

i wonder if we might get 500k or something for barry also?

 

[AndFos]

1 minute ago, MaVilla said:

is there a reason you didnt factor in Archer - 10m ish, Donk - maybe 5m?, Chambers - prob free, but even 1m would be something!

was the Forest offer for Bogarde genuine?, that was alleged to be a 4m bid.

i wonder if we might get 500k or something for barry also?

 

Yes, we bought Archer back and his book value is around the same we would sell him for - if its exactly the same the PSR profit will be 0. Dendoncker have book value left, I don't think he will sell for more than his value (will probably be loaned out again). Bogarde will be pure profit, should have been included. I'll edit to include him.

[MaVilla]

1 minute ago, AndFos said:

Yes, we bought Archer back and his book value is around the same we would sell him for - if its exactly the same the PSR profit will be 0. Dendoncker have book value left, I don't think he will sell for more than his value (will probably be loaned out again). Bogarde will be pure profit, should have been included. I'll edit to include him.

makes sense, thanks!

[StewieGriffin]

3 hours ago, AndFos said:

Archer will have book value equal to what we would be likely to sell him for this summer because we bought him back.

I wonder if we might see a loan next season to get a 12 month amortisation and then sell him to book a relatively small profit...

[Tubby]

Sinisalo is a candidate for profit imo.

His reputation is rising already, so add a Championship loan to his experience and he could well be a James Trafford at this time, next year.

As much as we might like to retain him ourselves, the rules are prohibiting that.

Edited Monday at 04:31 by Tubby

[CVByrne]

17 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

Quick projection of our 24/25 PSR situation (not meant to be 100% accurate, just an illustration that 24/25 could be as challenging as 23/24 has been)

Assumptions:

22/23 - based on actual published accounts

23/24 - based on Swiss Rumble estimations, so please don`t argue with me on these.

24/25 - revenue based on us finishing 6th in the league, banking £60m from CL and generous increases in both Commercial and Match Day. Factoring in Coutinho write-off. Wages and amortisation not changed, as they are impossible to calculate before the transfer window is shut. 

 

Assuming these numbers are in the right ballpark (I believe they wont be hugely off), as you can see, we would be required to generate about £93m profit on player sales in 24/25 period (this includes June next year).

I don't believe this would be possible by simply offloading deadwood and Duran. Most likely another 1st team player would need to follow Dougie next June.

I'd generally agree on the above with the exception of Other Expenses. I've estimated they surely drop from 22/23 where we paid Gerrard off and paid Emery release. The year prior we also Paid off Deano and paid Gerrard's release. 

I've our Other Expenses as £20m lower than yours. So it's a drop instead of an increase. 

I've the 20/21 Season as +26m PSR calculation. So I had us before the sales this season around -60-70m in PSR.

Then profit on those sales are 35 or 40m depending on if you believe the sell on clause of 20% for Luiz. Then 9m and 19m for Tim And Kellyman.

I think that gets us to about scratch for PSR this window. I think aim now is more about the squad cost so we need to get wages down by moving high earners who aren't key players on. 

I also think we need to make around another £40-50m profit on players sales this financial year but it depends a lot on how we manage wages. It's hard to figure out where we are with Ings, Young, Coutinho, Traore, Chambers, Sanson, Dendonker, Luiz and possibly Digne and Carlos all departing from the last period we have wages to estimate from. 

We have added Tielemans, Pau, Diaby who would be on higher wages. Maatsen on mid level with increases and young players on low wages. So the wage bill transformation will be big. 

 

 

[Rich_H]

8 hours ago, MaVilla said:

So is this going to seriously limit our spending power this summer?

It looks like it would, as it would be 93m needed, plus a proportion of any money spent, so could easily rise to 120/130/140m needed, depending on players we buy this summer?

im sure the club knows what it is doing, but it feels a little seat of our pants?

I don’t think there is much spending power at all this summer unless we want to gamble on a couple of big sales next summer but that can be risky - performance / injury for just two reasons. 
 

I think we’ll see a couple of contract renewals for those with high book value left to see the amortisation drop and 2-3 loans and two modest purchases and a one in one out policy throughout the squad but only where potential talent/resale is available.

 

If we see more it would suggest the figures from Swiss Ramble may be off slightly and therefore the figures predicted above - we won’t know for sure until accounts are posted but a big window would suggest the club thinks we are in a position they know they have control of. 

[blandy]

11 hours ago, AndFos said:

But the year after it looks very good (if we continue to have around the same income), as we then loose the £-94,7m PSR year

25/26 year will have completely different PSR criteria. It’s changing to the UEFA system, basically. Villa will need to keep player costs to less than 70% of income. As we kind of need to do this next season, as well (though alongside meeting current domestic PSR metrics) because we’re in UEFA [checks notes] Champions League.

[Wezbid]

Have those projected losses carried over the costs of sacking Gerrard and his staff?

[CVByrne]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

25/26 year will have completely different PSR criteria. It’s changing to the UEFA system, basically. Villa will need to keep player costs to less than 70% of income. As we kind of need to do this next season, as well (though alongside meeting current domestic PSR metrics) because we’re in UEFA [checks notes] Champions League.

Yes and what matters for those rules are the single years costs (players wages + amortisation) and our single years income + a single year prorata over last 3 years of transfer profit/loss. So it's key to get our wage bill relative to operating income in line. 

[Rich_H]

15 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Yes and what matters for those rules are the single years costs (players wages + amortisation) and our single years income + a single year prorata over last 3 years of transfer profit/loss. So it's key to get our wage bill relative to operating income in line. 

Would that mean we are projected to be at 103% with the above figures so 33% reduction in costs / £150m increase in revenue required over the next year?

[CVByrne]

49 minutes ago, Rich_H said:

Would that mean we are projected to be at 103% with the above figures so 33% reduction in costs / £150m increase in revenue required over the next year?

Well the UEFA calc is based on a calendar year. so for this year 2022, 2023, 2024 are the years we can include for player sales and this years squad cost is 80%, next years is 70%

it's end next year to worry more about