The AVFC FFP thread

[allani]

13 minutes ago, burchy said:

I think we’d have had our lawyers all over this before we even went down this route. Even if the league go at us I think we’d be ready, especially given the strong words from our owners. 

I agree.  On the face of it, it looks like this is Plan B after our Plan A failed (to have the maximum losses allowed increased to allow for inflation).  But I think the club knew Plan A had no chance of ever being approved and so Plan B was set and ready to enact as soon as that happened.  I suspect we have a Plan C (similar to Plan A) ready to table in September (after we have taken full advantage of Plan B ) that will raise some challenge against the new rules and we'll have a few more Chairmen / Owners willing to hear us out this time.

[Zatman]

13 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

It's like saying I "outsmarted" my landlord by paying the rent. This will allow me to stay in the flat.

Yep I dont feel like a winner in this deal at all. Juventus won it

[The_Steve]

1 minute ago, Zatman said:

Juventus won it

I'm sure Monchi and Unai think otherwise, plus, that's not how it works.

[Jbvilla909]

28 minutes ago, CroVillan said:

Perfect I bloody love it!! 
means we’re doing our job and obviously striking fear into others with the fear we’re bridging the gap. 
 

finally got the right/perfect heads running our club. Can’t wait to see they’re butthurt tears come July 1 when we really start ramping things up with incomings 

It's glorious isn't it. Little old Villa threatening their position. 

[Tubby]

23 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

You are quoting Swiss Ramble, but according to him we are £58m over the limit this season, not £28m. So if you believe his figures, these 3 sales just about cover the gap (+4m).

I thought I'd seen it as written, but happy to be corrected. Do you have a link to the figure you've referenced?

[GingerCollins29]

1 hour ago, Tubby said:

An over-simplified (probably) summary of events. Please correct any instance where I'm (inevitably) wrong:

• Villa PSR position was ~£133m vs. £105m (ref: Swiss Ramble)
• We therefore had to book a profit of c. £28m from player transactions before 30 June
• Profit on out-going transactions for PSR is the difference between the sale price and the book value
• This is negated by amortisation on in-coming transactions
• Doug: ~£43m sale vs. book value of ~£3m (assumes £15m purchase but doesn't adjust for new contract), less 20% sell-on to Man Citeh for anything above £15m (£5.4m) = £34.6m profit
• Iroegbunam: £9m sale, almost all of it profit = £9m profit
• Kellyman: £19m sale, almost all of it profit = £19m profit
• Total book profit from out-going transactions (so far) = £62.6m
• Maatsen: £37.5m fee, 1 week of amortisation (assuming he signs this week) at £145k
• Iling-Jr and Barrenechea: ~£9.5m each, 1 week of amortisation at £37k each
• Dobbin: assumed £9m fee, 1 week of amortisation at £35k
• This year's position before June 30th is improved by ~£62.4m profit. Our position vs. PSR would therefore be ~£70m vs. £105m ( ignoring other costs)
• Annual amortisation of in-coming transactions = ~£13.1m

In short, we might have got by with the sales of Iroegbunam and Kellyman alone, Doug wanted to go (wouldn't re-sign) and we've maximised value.

Where does this leave us with spending in July? 

[MaVilla]

1 hour ago, Tubby said:

An over-simplified (probably) summary of events. Please correct any instance where I'm (inevitably) wrong:

• Villa PSR position was ~£133m vs. £105m (ref: Swiss Ramble)
• We therefore had to book a profit of c. £28m from player transactions before 30 June
• Profit on out-going transactions for PSR is the difference between the sale price and the book value
• This is negated by amortisation on in-coming transactions
• Doug: ~£43m sale vs. book value of ~£3m (assumes £15m purchase but doesn't adjust for new contract), less 20% sell-on to Man Citeh for anything above £15m (£5.4m) = £34.6m profit
• Iroegbunam: £9m sale, almost all of it profit = £9m profit
• Kellyman: £19m sale, almost all of it profit = £19m profit
• Total book profit from out-going transactions (so far) = £62.6m
• Maatsen: £37.5m fee, 1 week of amortisation (assuming he signs this week) at £145k
• Iling-Jr and Barrenechea: ~£9.5m each, 1 week of amortisation at £37k each
• Dobbin: assumed £9m fee, 1 week of amortisation at £35k
• This year's position before June 30th is improved by ~£62.4m profit. Our position vs. PSR would therefore be ~£70m vs. £105m ( ignoring other costs)
• Annual amortisation of in-coming transactions = ~£13.1m

In short, we might have got by with the sales of Iroegbunam and Kellyman alone, Doug wanted to go (wouldn't re-sign) and we've maximised value.

interesting, thanks.

And we still have Cash (probably), Duran (probably), Bogarde (allegedly), Chambers, Dendoncker, then one of Digne or Moreno to offload at some point.

So...maybe......Cash - 25m, Duran - 30-35m, Bogarde - 4m, Chambers - free, Dendoncker - 5m, Digne/Moreno - 10-15m, so another 75-85m of sales likely?

[Czarnikjak]

3 minutes ago, Tubby said:

I thought I'd seen it as written, but happy to be corrected. Do you have a link to the figure you've referenced?

This:

https://swissramble.substack.com/p/which-clubs-have-issues-with-profitability

[Rich_H]

1 minute ago, Czarnikjak said:

This:

https://swissramble.substack.com/p/which-clubs-have-issues-with-profitability

Is this the calculation where he’s done 15% YOY increases for other expenses despite 23/24 being the first season where we haven’t had to pay off both a coach and backroom team from sacking them and a club for poaching their management team?

I think that’s a major oversight unless there’s other expenses he’s adding on but not explaining. 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

32 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

You are quoting Swiss Ramble, but according to him we are £58m over the limit this season, not £28m. So if you believe his figures, these 3 sales just about cover the gap (+4m).

A poster further down pointed out that we still have saleable assets which we can still move in July, towards the current/future accounts?

Digne, Duran, Dendonker etc.

Also in anticipation of our improved revenue across the board, I think we may be ok without necessarily having to sell anyone we don't want to.

However i'm admittedly just learning basics about how this Football finance thing works from you guys.

[Czarnikjak]

2 minutes ago, Rich_H said:

Is this the calculation where he’s done 15% YOY increases for other expenses despite 23/24 being the first season where we haven’t had to pay off both a coach and backroom team from sacking them and a club for poaching their management team?

I think that’s a major oversight unless there’s other expenses he’s adding on but not explaining. 

I'm not arguing for or against these figures. I only responded to the original poster who quoted £28m as being a figure from Swiss Rumble, while in fact it was £58m.

[The_Steve]

4 minutes ago, Rich_H said:

Is this the calculation where he’s done 15% YOY increases for other expenses despite 23/24 being the first season where we haven’t had to pay off both a coach and backroom team from sacking them and a club for poaching their management team?

I think that’s a major oversight unless there’s other expenses he’s adding on but not explaining. 

Sanson was sold so I don't know if that's taken into account and not just a loan anymore.

[Tubby]

35 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Where does this leave us with spending in July? 

I'm not entirely certain but technically our amortisation for new players is capped by the difference between our balance brought forward and PSR limit for the year. Sales and other revenues 'widens' that gap in the accounting year.

This is very simplified, but as I understand it; if we make another £70m in sales, that would widen the amount we can amortise in the financial year e.g. £35m (1/3 of 3 year allowance) + 1/3 of the profit from sales (less book value) and additional commercial revenues (Hecks role is to generate revenues + ECL) - assuming we aim to stay within the regulations.

We also lose the benefit of the sale of Jack, so the gap will be influenced by the last two seasons of expenditure.

If I had to put a figure on it, I reckon we could comfortably spend an additional c. £100m in this window.

Caveat, I don't have the full details so will have overlooked something. I've also simplified for ease of communication.

34 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

interesting, thanks.

And we still have Cash (probably), Duran (probably), Bogarde (allegedly), Chambers, Dendoncker, then one of Digne or Moreno to offload at some point.

So...maybe......Cash - 25m, Duran - 30-35m, Bogarde - 4m, Chambers - free, Dendoncker - 5m, Digne/Moreno - 10-15m, so another 75-85m of sales likely?

Yes, realistically I think we will generate ~£70m in sales from these players. The profit will be the sale price less the book value.

Edited June 23 by Tubby

[VillaChris]

Luiz, Kellyman and Tim out.

That's enough then and we can be pretty sure we satisfy FFP with those departures.

Any more leaving now will simply be down to us signing players e.g. one of the LBs leaving with Maatsen coming in.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

I know Juve aren't what they used to be, but they still finished 3rd in Serie A and are a consistent Champions League team.

We are a team which have just made Champions League.

The notion that players who aren't necessarily starting for them are crap is a miscalculation on that basis imo.

Their squad will likely have been better than ours, some of there non starters will also be 100 percent better than our bench players imo.

Also remember, some of our key players over the last few years have been " rejects " or " reserves " at other clubs.

It's an oversimplification to suggest just because a player isn't always starting at another club they aren't good enough for us 

Aside from this, and most importantly, solving our FFP, whilst strengthening our squad, and being able to go out now and actually get the top tier players we want, are some of the things this deal has helped.

[sne]

21 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I know Juve aren't what they used to be, but they still finished 3rd in Serie A and are a consistent Champions League team.

We are a team which have just made Champions League.

The notion that players who aren't necessarily starting for them are crap is a miscalculation on that basis imo.

Their squad will likely have been better than ours, some of there non starters will also be 100 percent better than our bench players imo.

Also remember, some of our key players over the last few years have been " rejects " or " reserves " at other clubs.

It's an oversimplification to suggest just because a player isn't always starting at another club they aren't good enough for us 

Aside from this, and most importantly, solving our FFP, whilst strengthening our squad, and being able to go out now and actually get the top tier players we want, are some of the things this deal has helped.

And Luiz moving to them probably isn't about lifestyle or his girlfriend telling him to.

[allani]

22 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I know Juve aren't what they used to be, but they still finished 3rd in Serie A and are a consistent Champions League team.

We are a team which have just made Champions League.

The notion that players who aren't necessarily starting for them are crap is a miscalculation on that basis imo.

Their squad will likely have been better than ours, some of there non starters will also be 100 percent better than our bench players imo.

Also remember, some of our key players over the last few years have been " rejects " or " reserves " at other clubs.

It's an oversimplification to suggest just because a player isn't always starting at another club they aren't good enough for us 

Aside from this, and most importantly, solving our FFP, whilst strengthening our squad, and being able to go out now and actually get the top tier players we want, are some of the things this deal has helped.

You seem to have forgotten that Serie A is a **** league (according to a well-loved poster on here ).

[blandy]

Posts moved. if you want to discuss the ability or playing merits or otherwise of players coming in or going out, use the transfer thread.

[thabucks]

It’s not like we’re are exploiting a loop hole / work around - it’s been the way since FFP was introduced that weights the sale of homegrown players higher- simple as. 

I bet end of the summer Arsenal would’ve made the most selling off their homegrown players in ESR, Nketiah, Nelson… 

We are selling assets we feel we can do without to invest back into the first team. Yes, we would have filled an accountancy deficiency but think we would’ve sold Kellyman & Tim anyhow regardless of FFP/PSR 

[duke313]

11 minutes ago, thabucks said:

It’s not like we’re are exploiting a loop hole / work around - it’s been the way since FFP was introduced that weights the sale of homegrown players higher- simple as. 

I bet end of the summer Arsenal would’ve made the most selling off their homegrown players in ESR, Nketiah, Nelson… 

We are selling assets we feel we can do without to invest back into the first team. Yes, we would have filled an accountancy deficiency but think we would’ve sold Kellyman & Tim anyhow regardless of FFP/PSR 

The “conveyor belt” of talent that gets talked about, this is what it looks like. 95% of them won’t play for us much, they’ll be sold to fund the first team.