The_Steve Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 2 minutes ago, CVByrne said: I think it might have been removed when he signed a new contract because if it existed Ornstein and the Athletic would have reported it when he was sold last week. The fact nobody at all is mentioning it makes me think it's gone, possibly had a time limit of 4 years (which was his contract length) or we paid City to remove it when we signed Luiz to a new deal or.. it simply never existed at all. I don’t think it works like that. It would make little sense for any club to insist upon them if you can just erase them with a new contract - the new deal is between club and player - not what the clubs previously agreed to sanction the move. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 4 Moderator Share Posted July 4 2 hours ago, The_Steve said: I don’t think it works like that. It would make little sense for any club to insist upon them if you can just erase them with a new contract - the new deal is between club and player - not what the clubs previously agreed to sanction the move. They'll be time dependent on the expiry of the original agreement, or more likely will have phased buyouts - so in year one we might have owed them £4m if we wanted to buy out the clause, in year two, £3m etc. On the renewal of contract we'll have owed City a fee - it's possible I guess that we could have negotiated away that fee by putting in a new sell on clause, but I would guess it would be at a significantly reduced rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) I was just looking through our squad from an amortisation cost perspective. We have generally got a lot of high quality players who are on a pretty low annual amortisation cost. Martinez - £1.7m per year Konsa - £1.0m Ramsey, Tielemans, Kamara - £0 Rogers - £1.5m Watkins - £2.6m McGinn - £0.2m This gives us a lot of PSR room to play with if we can keep wages under control and possibly offload the high amortisation, low value players: Dendoncker - £2.9m per year (2 years left) Digne - £5.6m per year (2 years left) Carlos - £6.5m per year (2 years left) Coutinho - £4.3m per year (2 years left) The rest of the players are either high value and high amortisation, or low value and low amortisation. Edited July 11 by ender4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 49 minutes ago, ender4 said: I was just looking through our squad from an amortisation cost perspective. We have generally got a lot of high quality players who are on a pretty low annual amortisation cost. Martinez - £1.7m per year Konsa - £1.0m Ramsey, Tielemans, Kamara - £0 Rogers - £1.5m Watkins - £2.6m McGinn - £0.2m This gives us a lot of PSR room to play with if we can keep wages under control and possibly offload the high amortisation, low value players: Dendoncker - £2.9m per year (2 years left) Digne - £5.6m per year (2 years left) Carlos - £6.5m per year (2 years left) Coutinho - £4.3m per year (2 years left) The rest of the players are either high value and high amortisation, or low value and low amortisation. Coutinho loaned out so we don't have his wage costs for this year, makes him less of an issue.. just need to then try and get another year the same next year or sell him for 4m. We have no real prospect of selling him for that much this year, so have to hope he smashes it at vasco and then someone takes a punt next year. Carlos played a lot and if he stays fit I expect may play a lot again, and could yet prove his worth. His salary is quite chunk as well though so be great if we could find a buyer of him for £12m and get his wages out of here. May be a struggle and we'd need to sign a replacement. The keys are really Digne and Donk. Digne's high amortisation and wage in a position we have two other options is a real barrier. Donk's wage are reasonable, but he gets no game time and its realisitic that we could shift him for over 3m (meaning we wouldnt lose more than the equivalent amortisation loss we'd have this year anyway) as well as getting his wages off which would also be a big help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 23 hours ago, ender4 said: I was just looking through our squad from an amortisation cost perspective. We have generally got a lot of high quality players who are on a pretty low annual amortisation cost. Martinez - £1.7m per year Konsa - £1.0m Ramsey, Tielemans, Kamara - £0 Rogers - £1.5m Watkins - £2.6m McGinn - £0.2m This gives us a lot of PSR room to play with if we can keep wages under control and possibly offload the high amortisation, low value players: Dendoncker - £2.9m per year (2 years left) Digne - £5.6m per year (2 years left) Carlos - £6.5m per year (2 years left) Coutinho - £4.3m per year (2 years left) The rest of the players are either high value and high amortisation, or low value and low amortisation. Isn't that a list of good villa players and players signed by Gerrard? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Isn't that a list of good villa players and players signed by Gerrard? Ah you are making the mistake of humanizing them. They are assets and trade-able commodities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuwabatake Sanjuro Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 I see Spurs have gotten £8m from AZ Alkmaar for Troy Parrot, who could not get great game time for Preston the season before last. One half decent loan for Excelsior was enough, but it goes to show that the prices we got for Iroegbunham was not excessive. On another note it would be nice to send players to Europe for experience to maximise their value/development. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 6 hours ago, sne said: Ah you are making the mistake of humanizing them. They are assets and trade-able commodities. Indeed. They are not humans, they are varying degrees of book value on an accounting ledger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubby Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) On 30/06/2024 at 13:55, Czarnikjak said: Quick projection of our 24/25 PSR situation (not meant to be 100% accurate, just an illustration that 24/25 could be as challenging as 23/24 has been) Assumptions: 22/23 - based on actual published accounts 23/24 - based on Swiss Rumble estimations, so please don`t argue with me on these. 24/25 - revenue based on us finishing 6th in the league, banking £60m from CL and generous increases in both Commercial and Match Day. Factoring in Coutinho write-off. Wages and amortisation not changed, as they are impossible to calculate before the transfer window is shut. Assuming these numbers are in the right ballpark (I believe they wont be hugely off), as you can see, we would be required to generate about £93m profit on player sales in 24/25 period (this includes June next year). I don't believe this would be possible by simply offloading deadwood and Duran. Most likely another 1st team player would need to follow Dougie next June. Consider this a work in progress. I would be happy to maintain this and welcome any feedback to refine the calculations. Following our summer dealings, I have attempted to calculate our projected 24/25 PSR gap based on the calculations previously made by @Czarnikjak. I have focused solely on the change in position from Czarnikjak's calculations and not the official accounting position (read the analysis section to understand how this might be affected). Notes: Assumes the Duran/Felix moves happen; fees estimated. Doesn't account for the impact of net salaries on PSR position - welcome any input here. Based on the timing of the transactions, I have assumed full year amortisation for the incoming players. Net change in amortisation calculates the difference between; saved amortisation (fee amortisation attributed to players now sold) and additional amortisation (fee amortisation attributed to new signings). Net PSR Mvt 24/25 calculates the difference between; PSR Profit from sales in FY24/25 and additional amortisation. I have also factored in a PSR gain of £5.6m from the sales pre-July, versus an estimated gap of ~£61.0m. The official accounts for 23/24 are not yet publicly available and the estimated gap may be improved vs. this position. Analysis: Based on this assessment, we would still need to close a gap of ~£60m by the end of 24/25. This could be achieved by increasing revenues; match day revenues; tournament progression; media coverage; other commercial revenues. The club will also seek to reduce expenditure; net gains in amortisation; net gains in wages; and reduction in operating expenditure. Regardless of the above, we can expect that there will be a requirement to sell additional players. Let's assume that the changes to VP drive improved match day revenues and the new kit increases commercial revenues, above estimation (c. £10m), and that the club find c. £10m of cost efficiencies, the gap will be about £40m. A gap of ~£40m will mean that we are required to sell a key player or two, or cash in on some academy talent, before 30th June 2025 (assuming no further movement this month). Who are you picking? Cash? Moreno/Digne? Archer? Under 21s? Or will it be a big name like Kamara or Buendia? Edited July 27 by Tubby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) 3 hours ago, Tubby said: Consider this a work in progress. I would be happy to maintain this and welcome any feedback to refine the calculations. Following our summer dealings, I have attempted to calculate our projected 24/25 PSR gap based on the calculations previously made by @Czarnikjak. I have focused solely on the change in position from Czarnikjak's calculations and not the official accounting position (read the analysis section to understand how this might be affected). Notes: Assumes the Duran/Felix moves happen; fees estimated. Doesn't account for the impact of net salaries on PSR position - welcome any input here. Based on the timing of the transactions, I have assumed full year amortisation for the incoming players. Net change in amortisation calculates the difference between; saved amortisation (fee amortisation attributed to players now sold) and additional amortisation (fee amortisation attributed to new signings). Net PSR Mvt 24/25 calculates the difference between; PSR Profit from sales in FY24/25 and additional amortisation. I have also factored in a PSR gain of £5.6m from the sales pre-July, versus an estimated gap of ~£61.0m. The official accounts for 23/24 are not yet publicly available and the estimated gap may be improved vs. this position. Analysis: Based on this assessment, we would still need to close a gap of ~£60m by the end of 24/25. This could be achieved by increasing revenues; match day revenues; tournament progression; media coverage; other commercial revenues. The club will also seek to reduce expenditure; net gains in amortisation; net gains in wages; and reduction in operating expenditure. Regardless of the above, we can expect that there will be a requirement to sell additional players. Let's assume that the changes to VP drive improved match day revenues and the new kit increases commercial revenues, above estimation (c. £10m), and that the club find c. £10m of cost efficiencies, the gap will be about £40m. A gap of ~£40m will mean that we are required to sell a key player or two, or cash in on some academy talent, before 30th June 2025 (assuming no further movement this month). Who are you picking? Cash? Moreno/Digne? Archer? Under 21s? Or will it be a big name like Kamara or Buendia? Couple comments, my figures assumed £8'.5m impairment charge for termination of Coutinhos contract. That didn't happen, so £8.5m can be removed from the Gap. And also we made £5m profit from Hull selling Philogene (sell on clause). Secondly, wages will also change...you would need to try to calculate net change in wages following this summer transfers. Not easy to do. Regardless, more outgoings are certain. I would think this summer at least one of Digne/Moreno (if not both) and hopefully Dendonker. Bigger player sale will probably also happen in June. Somebody like Kamara or JJ for example. PS. Are your amortisation figures for Doug and Sanson correct? Both at over £10m? Doesn't look right. Edited July 27 by Czarnikjak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubby Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 30 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said: Couple comments, my figures assumed £8'.5m impairment charge for termination of Coutinhos contract. That didn't happen, so £8.5m can be removed from the Gap. And also we made £5m profit from Hull selling Philogene (sell on clause). Secondly, wages will also change...you would need to try to calculate net change in wages following this summer transfers. Not easy to do. Regardless, more outgoings are certain. I would think this summer at least one of Digne/Moreno (if not both) and hopefully Dendonker. Bigger player sale will probably also happen in June. Somebody like Kamara or JJ for example. PS. Are your amortisation figures for Doug and Sanson correct? Both at over £10m? Doesn't look right. Factoring in what you mention re: Coutinho and Philogene, how would that re-base your calculations? £13.5m less than the £78m? So a net £46m or so gap? The amortisation figures are the total amount amortised over the period under contract. Sanson was here for 3.5 years, Doug was here for 5 years and had a new contract during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 27 Moderator Share Posted July 27 What are your projections on income in this, it wasn't quite clear to me. Top line income is definitely the clubs absolute focus on meeting PSR requirements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, Tubby said: Factoring in what you mention re: Coutinho and Philogene, how would that re-base your calculations? £13.5m less than the £78m? So a net £46m or so gap? The amortisation figures are the total amount amortised over the period under contract. Sanson was here for 3.5 years, Doug was here for 5 years and had a new contract during that time. Yes, the gap is £13.5m less than initially thought. Re amortisation. You saying we adding £40m yearly amortisation. But how are we saving £48m? To calculate net amortisation change you need to compare yearly figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 If duran goes for 35-40m on top of the diaby and luiz sales we must be in a really healthy FFP position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 21 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: If duran goes for 35-40m on top of the diaby and luiz sales we must be in a really healthy FFP position We are not. Luiz sale was needed while Grealish profit was still on the calculations. Now his £100m is gone and Diaby+Duran combined only generate £50m psr profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubby Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, Czarnikjak said: Yes, the gap is £13.5m less than initially thought. Re amortisation. You saying we adding £40m yearly amortisation. But how are we saving £48m? To calculate net amortisation change you need to compare yearly figures. The calculated £48m amortisation is the value that would have hit the accounts if the players hadn't been sold. The amortisation associated to the inbound players is £8m lower per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubby Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) 2 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: What are your projections on income in this, it wasn't quite clear to me. Top line income is definitely the clubs absolute focus on meeting PSR requirements. I worked from Czarnikjak's (his post was quoted in my post) estimated position, my aim was to show the movement from his calculations to where we are now, as a result of the summer dealings. Essentially, trying to calculate how at risk are we vs. PSR in the current season. Based on estimated and expenditure, the summers dealings indicate we are improved, but will still need to sell players at some point during the FY 24/25. Edited July 27 by Tubby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 11 minutes ago, Tubby said: The calculated £48m amortisation is the value that would have hit the accounts if the players hadn't been sold. The amortisation associated to the inbound players is £8m lower per year. Yearly amortisation of the players we sold only adds up to about £20m not £48m, so £40m added amort minus 20 equals £20m added in yearly amortisation net. You have to compare apples to apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Sooo, does this mean we are poor again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 2 hours ago, Czarnikjak said: We are not. Luiz sale was needed while Grealish profit was still on the calculations. Now his £100m is gone and Diaby+Duran combined only generate £50m psr profit. 50m is a lot though ?? We are not making anywhere near a loss so we are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts