Ollie Watkins

[allani]

6 hours ago, a m ole said:

Every fan thinks their strikers miss loads of chances, because they get loads of chances. Even the best ones. It’s confirmation/familiarity bias.

Yes it would be nice to have better, but better is the best strikers in the league. He’s not a weak link when in form.

He's still only scored more than once in two league matches for us.  His lack of awareness in and around the box means that he doesn't get as many chances as he should (either clever runs to receive a pass or reading the game better to be in the right place for deflections, rebounds, etc).  But the main problem is that he doesn't get enough assists and he doesn't help our link-up play well enough.  If he was good at that - 11 goals rather than 15 wouldn't be a major issue.  But when you only get 2 assists it becomes more of an issue.  His overall goal contribution numbers are a long way down on the best attackers in the league - especially when you factor in the number of minutes he played.

[allani]

23 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Is it really? A lot of Liverpool fans wanted to keep Mane over Salah for that reason

Salah XG is worse than Watkins and he is taking nearly 3 shots more a game including penalties

If we watched Salah or Tammy every game we would be complaining like we are with Watkins 

I am beginning to suspect that this is a Rosie Holt style satirical account.

[allani]

31 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Is it really? A lot of Liverpool fans wanted to keep Mane over Salah for that reason

Salah XG is worse than Watkins and he is taking nearly 3 shots more a game including penalties

If we watched Salah or Tammy every game we would be complaining like we are with Watkins 

Watkins shots to goals ratio is 21%, Salah's is 23%.  On this basis clearly you want the "attacker" who has more shots per game because they will score more goals.  As Jimmy Greaves once said it is better to create 3 chances per game and score 1.5 goals on average than to create 1 chance and score it.  Salah creates chances through the way he plays.  Watkins doesn't create enough.

Also the idea that Salah never passes!!  Watkins - 2 assists, Salah - 13.  Watkins - 1 goal every 269 minutes, Salah - 1 every 120 minutes.  Watkins - 13 goal contributions last season, Salah managed 36.

But yeah we'd all be complaining if Watkins was matching those figures!!!!

[sparrow1988]

52 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Is it really? A lot of Liverpool fans wanted to keep Mane over Salah for that reason

Salah XG is worse than Watkins and he is taking nearly 3 shots more a game including penalties

If we watched Salah or Tammy every game we would be complaining like we are with Watkins 

No it's not. Salah's xG is 0.71 per 90 (99th percentile or top 1% of all positional peers in the "big 5" leagues). Ollie's is 0.37 per 90 (48th percentile - so in the bottom half of all positional peers in the "big 5" leagues). Their goals - xG are not that different (Salah: + 0.03 per 90, Ollie: -0.04 per 90). That amounts to about 3 goals over a season so not much. However Salah is still in the top 40% in this metric, whereas Ollie is in the bottom 40%. Roughly the same when penalties are taken out.

I have a feeling your negativity towards Liverpool is clouding your judgement here.

EDIT: Stats from FbRef

Edited August 1, 2022 by sparrow1988

[Vive_La_Villa]

Salah does miss big chances but that’s because pretty much every striker in the world does!  I mean look at Haalands miss the other day.

[sparrow1988]

2 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Salah does miss big chances but that’s because pretty much every striker in the world does!  I mean look at Haalands miss the other day.

Sums it up really

 

 

Edited August 1, 2022 by sparrow1988

[Vive_La_Villa]

Just now, nick76 said:

Cool, let’s see if City will swap Haaland for Ollie because basically they are the same as they both miss chances.

Now you’re just being silly and that’s my job.

[a m ole]

37 minutes ago, allani said:

He's still only scored more than once in two league matches for us.  His lack of awareness in and around the box means that he doesn't get as many chances as he should (either clever runs to receive a pass or reading the game better to be in the right place for deflections, rebounds, etc).  But the main problem is that he doesn't get enough assists and he doesn't help our link-up play well enough.  If he was good at that - 11 goals rather than 15 wouldn't be a major issue.  But when you only get 2 assists it becomes more of an issue.  His overall goal contribution numbers are a long way down on the best attackers in the league - especially when you factor in the number of minutes he played.

We’re just gonna keep going round in circles here but there’s no statistical anomaly compared to centre forwards in the league that show he either misses more big chances or doesn’t get himself into places to get chances. He’s just as not as good all round as the strikers who play for the top 6 and playing in a less good team which shouldn’t be a big surprise to anyone. He’s one of the best of the rest.

[allani]

9 minutes ago, a m ole said:

We’re just gonna keep going round in circles here but there’s no statistical anomaly compared to centre forwards in the league that show he either misses more big chances or doesn’t get himself into places to get chances. He’s just as not as good all round as the strikers who play for the top 6 and playing in a less good team which shouldn’t be a big surprise to anyone. He’s one of the best of the rest.

In terms of goal contributions he was 23rd - despite playing more minutes than almost every single one of the players above him.  That shows me that there are 22 players who are doing a better job at producing goals.  The season before last I would have agreed that his contribution elsewhere to the team was worth the price of a couple of goals fewer.  1 goal contribution every 240 - 250 minutes does not suggest that he is one of the best of the rest.  Even if you filter out midfielders (although that would seem odd as you would expect the guy who should be nearest the goal most of the time to get more goals / assists than someone who is covering 2/3rds of the pitch) the figures aren't that great.

[a m ole]

8 minutes ago, allani said:

In terms of goal contributions he was 23rd - despite playing more minutes than almost every single one of the players above him.  That shows me that there are 22 players who are doing a better job at producing goals.  The season before last I would have agreed that his contribution elsewhere to the team was worth the price of a couple of goals fewer.  1 goal contribution every 240 - 250 minutes does not suggest that he is one of the best of the rest.  Even if you filter out midfielders (although that would seem odd as you would expect the guy who should be nearest the goal most of the time to get more goals / assists than someone who is covering 2/3rds of the pitch) the figures aren't that great.

Which centre forward outside the top 6 would you swap him for and show the statistical comparison.

Antonio (32) and Vardy (35) had good seasons.

Strikers aren’t the only players who score goals any more, so of course you’d filter out midfielders. It’s a different position.

Edited August 1, 2022 by a m ole

[Vive_La_Villa]

8 minutes ago, allani said:

In terms of goal contributions he was 23rd - despite playing more minutes than almost every single one of the players above him.  That shows me that there are 22 players who are doing a better job at producing goals.  The season before last I would have agreed that his contribution elsewhere to the team was worth the price of a couple of goals fewer.  1 goal contribution every 240 - 250 minutes does not suggest that he is one of the best of the rest.  Even if you filter out midfielders (although that would seem odd as you would expect the guy who should be nearest the goal most of the time to get more goals / assists than someone who is covering 2/3rds of the pitch) the figures aren't that great.

That ain’t a great stat tbf.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Just now, a m ole said:

Which centre forward outside the top 6 would you swap him for and show the statistical comparison.

Antonio (32) and Vardy (35) had good seasons.

Great question. 

[sparrow1988]

Just now, a m ole said:

Which centre forward outside the top 6 would you swap him for and show the statistical comparison.

Antonio (32) and Vardy (35) had good seasons.

Maupay

 

[romavillan]

2 minutes ago, a m ole said:

Which centre forward outside the top 6 would you swap him for and show the statistical comparison.

Antonio (32) and Vardy (35) had good seasons.

Both too old though if we're looking for a longer term solution. It's a tough position to fill, the kind of calibre that would guarantee us 20 goals at this level wouldn't come and cost over 100 million nowadays if they're at their peak. That kind of player wants Champions League football anyway so even if Gerrard had been their idol they wouldn't come. We either have to make our own promoting from youth, or buy from a pool of youngsters who *might* be the next big thing and hope we get lucky. Or not gamble and stick with Ollie and Ings and hope they can both get 12+ goals and hope the rest of the squad can score the rest of what we need.

[Steero113]

2 hours ago, Zatman said:

Is it really? A lot of Liverpool fans wanted to keep Mane over Salah for that reason

Salah XG is worse than Watkins and he is taking nearly 3 shots more a game including penalties

If we watched Salah or Tammy every game we would be complaining like we are with Watkins 

Yep, it’s pretty ridiculous.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Now you’re just being silly and that’s my job.

Saw one of the podcasters make a good point, and i think it resonates with Ollie.

He said that yeah, all strikers will miss big chances, but it's how they react and carry on after.

He said Haaland comes across as the type who doesn't drop in confidence if he misses a big chance, as he backs himself to bag loads more.

Ollie tends to seem the opposite, either his confidence drops, or he starts trying way too hard, and almost starts getting in his own way.

Probably needs to relax.

[Delphinho123]

40 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Saw one of the podcasters make a good point, and i think it resonates with Ollie.

He said that yeah, all strikers will miss big chances, but it's how they react and carry on after.

He said Haaland comes across as the type who doesn't drop in confidence if he misses a big chance, as he backs himself to bag loads more.

Ollie tends to seem the opposite, either his confidence drops, or he starts trying way too hard, and almost starts getting in his own way.

Probably needs to relax.

Maybe, maybe not. I don’t actually care all that much about him missing chances. All strikers do and I don’t think he’s bad at finishing (albeit he seems to be getting worse at that too). 

It’s his all round game that frustrates me. I can forgive him missing a good chance if he makes up for it in his overall team play. At the moment, I think he’s detrimental to our attacking play because he can’t seem to trap the ball, hold it up, and actually work with the more technical players like Coutinho, Bailey and Buendia. He makes the wrong decision more often than not. 

I really hope he improves. 

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Maybe, maybe not. I don’t actually care all that much about him missing chances. All strikers do and I don’t think he’s bad at finishing (albeit he seems to be getting worse at that too). 

It’s his all round game that frustrates me. I can forgive him missing a good chance if he makes up for it in his overall team play. At the moment, I think he’s detrimental to our attacking play because he can’t seem to trap the ball, hold it up, and actually work with the more technical players like Coutinho, Bailey and Buendia. He makes the wrong decision more often than not. 

I really hope he improves. 

Yep I agree, I can cope with a decrease in scoring for whatever reason but coupled with his all around game being worse it’s a problem.  I hope he turns it around.

[allani]

4 hours ago, a m ole said:

Which centre forward outside the top 6 would you swap him for and show the statistical comparison.

Antonio (32) and Vardy (35) had good seasons.

Strikers aren’t the only players who score goals any more, so of course you’d filter out midfielders. It’s a different position.

Well I would be playing Ings a lot more to start with (same number of goal contributions in about 1,000 fewer minutes on the pitch) and I wouldn't be ruling Archer or Bailey out of the picture either.  I think it is highly unlikely we would sign a striker already in the PL - much more likely that we are looking in the European leagues.  As demonstrated by the fact that our two major signings (discounting previous loanees) have both come from Europe.  The strikers who got a similar number of goals to Ollie last season don't really fit with a possession based system and so would probably not be a great fit for us either (in which case there would be little point making the change).

If they had to come from the PL then probably a player like Dennis might be a better fit (10 goals /  6 assists in about 400 fewer minutes than Ollie) although he is still probably better in a counter-attacking team.  Richarlison could have been an option (but obviously has gone to a Sly 6 team).

Edouard would be a gamble but he got 9 goal contributions (just 3 less) in 50% of the minutes that Ollie played.  Iheanacho also got 9 contributions in almost 33% of the number of minutes.  I'm not sure that I would want to sign either of them but they are interesting statistical comparisons.  Origi managed 4 in something like 200 minutes!  But if their numbers are comparable to Ollie's then that does show that our target pool isn't only limited to current "top" players.  A good player that is a better fit for our style might be more likely to suddenly become the next best thing than a more established player who appears to be struggling to adjust.

Unless we can persuade a fringe / marginalised / emerging player at a Sly 6 club that they are better off being the main focus here rather than a more fringe player where they are a la Emi (maybe a very good offer would get us Martinelli {12 goal contributions in 1000 fewer minutes} who is probably likely to get fewer minutes for Arsenal this season) - I can't see us signing an attacking player from the PL so it is a pretty pointless exercise.

[messi11]

17 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

I’ll base my assumptions on watching him rather than a statistic.

You could find any stat that makes McGinn the best player in the league, but doesn’t mean it’s true.

We need to improve on Watkins and until we do, you can forget Europe. 

Suggest who we can sign who would do better then him?
You will avoid this question